Vault Minerals Limited

CHIA:VAU Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.2b

Vault Minerals Valuation

Is VAU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VAU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VAU (A$0.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VAU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VAU?

Key metric: As VAU is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for VAU. This is calculated by dividing VAU's market cap by their current revenue.
What is VAU's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.6x
SalesAU$620.00m
Market CapAU$2.21b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does VAU's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for VAU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.9x
EMR Emerald Resources
6.3x29.0%AU$2.4b
CMM Capricorn Metals
7.1x26.9%AU$2.6b
GOR Gold Road Resources
4.4x11.9%AU$2.0b
OBM Ora Banda Mining
5.8x27.9%AU$1.2b
VAU Vault Minerals
3.6x12.9%AU$2.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: VAU is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x) compared to the peer average (5.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does VAU's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

121 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.58.6x2.6%
VAU Vault Minerals
 3.6x12.9%US$1.44b
BHP BHP Group
2.3x-3.2%US$131.27b
FMG Fortescue
2x-5.6%US$36.55b
VAU 3.6xIndustry Avg. 58.6xNo. of Companies120PS020406080100+
121 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.58.6x10.5%
VAU Vault Minerals
 3.6x26.1%US$1.44b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: VAU is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (58.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VAU's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VAU PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: VAU is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VAU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.33
AU$0.46
+40.4%
17.9%AU$0.54AU$0.30n/a7
Nov ’25AU$0.38
AU$0.46
+19.3%
17.9%AU$0.54AU$0.30n/a7
Oct ’25AU$0.34
AU$0.43
+25.7%
16.9%AU$0.54AU$0.30n/a7
Sep ’25AU$0.34
AU$0.42
+23.9%
16.9%AU$0.50AU$0.30n/a6
Aug ’25AU$0.37
AU$0.47
+26.2%
20.6%AU$0.58AU$0.30n/a6
Jul ’25AU$0.37
AU$0.49
+30.5%
19.9%AU$0.55AU$0.30n/a5
Jun ’25AU$0.45
AU$0.43
-2.2%
18.2%AU$0.50AU$0.30n/a4
May ’25AU$0.42
AU$0.43
+4.2%
18.2%AU$0.50AU$0.30n/a4
Apr ’25AU$0.38
AU$0.37
-1.3%
11.1%AU$0.40AU$0.30n/a4
Mar ’25AU$0.32
AU$0.35
+10.1%
10.8%AU$0.40AU$0.30n/a4
Feb ’25AU$0.33
AU$0.35
+7.6%
10.3%AU$0.40AU$0.30n/a4
Jan ’25AU$0.32
AU$0.34
+6.3%
8.0%AU$0.37AU$0.30n/a4
Dec ’24AU$0.35
AU$0.34
-4.3%
8.0%AU$0.37AU$0.30n/a4
Nov ’24AU$0.31
AU$0.33
+6.5%
8.9%AU$0.37AU$0.30AU$0.383
Oct ’24AU$0.26
AU$0.31
+19.4%
24.1%AU$0.42AU$0.26AU$0.343
Sep ’24AU$0.24
AU$0.31
+30.6%
24.1%AU$0.42AU$0.26AU$0.343
Aug ’24AU$0.19
AU$0.29
+56.4%
30.5%AU$0.42AU$0.23AU$0.373
Jul ’24AU$0.19
AU$0.28
+49.1%
38.9%AU$0.42AU$0.15AU$0.373
Jun ’24AU$0.15
AU$0.28
+88.9%
38.9%AU$0.42AU$0.15AU$0.453
May ’24AU$0.16
AU$0.28
+77.1%
38.9%AU$0.42AU$0.15AU$0.423
Apr ’24AU$0.15
AU$0.28
+86.7%
39.4%AU$0.42AU$0.15AU$0.383
Mar ’24AU$0.13
AU$0.28
+124.0%
39.4%AU$0.42AU$0.15AU$0.323
Feb ’24AU$0.20
AU$0.35
+76.7%
17.6%AU$0.42AU$0.27AU$0.333
Jan ’24AU$0.21
AU$0.36
+69.8%
12.6%AU$0.42AU$0.32AU$0.323
Dec ’23AU$0.17
AU$0.38
+114.3%
12.0%AU$0.42AU$0.33AU$0.352
Nov ’23AU$0.16
AU$0.38
+134.4%
12.0%AU$0.42AU$0.33AU$0.312

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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