Hillgrove Resources Limited

CHIA:HGO Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$115.3m

Hillgrove Resources Valuation

Is HGO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HGO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HGO (A$0.06) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HGO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HGO?

Key metric: As HGO is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for HGO. This is calculated by dividing HGO's market cap by their current revenue.
What is HGO's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.9x
SalesAU$40.25m
Market CapAU$115.26m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HGO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HGO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.3x
STA Strandline Resources
2.3x18.6%AU$138.9m
QPM QPM Energy
1x19.2%AU$105.9m
MRL Mayur Resources
57.5xn/aAU$115.2m
AZL Arizona Lithium
36.4xn/aAU$62.6m
HGO Hillgrove Resources
2.9x22.4%AU$115.3m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HGO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the peer average (24.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does HGO's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

121 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.1x3.1%
HGO Hillgrove Resources
 2.9x22.4%US$74.83m
BHP BHP Group
2.3x-3.2%US$131.27b
FMG Fortescue
2x-5.6%US$36.55b
HGO 2.9xIndustry Avg. 61.1xNo. of Companies120PS020406080100+
121 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.1x10.7%
HGO Hillgrove Resources
 2.9x66.5%US$74.83m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HGO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (58.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HGO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HGO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.9x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: HGO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HGO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.055
AU$0.10
+87.3%
18.1%AU$0.13AU$0.08n/a4
Nov ’25AU$0.066
AU$0.096
+45.5%
18.9%AU$0.12AU$0.08n/a4
Oct ’25AU$0.063
AU$0.087
+37.6%
10.9%AU$0.10AU$0.08n/a3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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