Hot Chili Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of HCH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HCH (A$0.79) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$33.68)

Is HCH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HCH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HCH (A$0.79) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$33.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HCH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HCH?

Key metric: As HCH is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for HCH. This is calculated by dividing HCH's market cap by their current book value.
What is HCH's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio	0.5x
Book	AU$227.78m
Market Cap	AU$118.11m

HCH key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-12.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does HCH's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for HCH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.8x
PEX Peel Mining	0.6x	n/a	AU$69.7m
CYM Cyprium Metals	0.3x	n/a	AU$27.5m
CCZ Castillo Copper	1.5x	n/a	AU$14.5m
AIS Aeris Resources	0.6x	44.8%	AU$169.3m
HCH Hot Chili	0.5x	n/a	AU$118.1m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: HCH is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does HCH's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

15 Companies	Price / Book	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
HAS Hastings Technology Metals	0.2x	12.6%	US$32.92m
JRV Jervois Global	0.1x	n/a	US$21.09m
ADN Andromeda Metals	0.2x	25.5%	US$15.59m
CTO Citigold	0.2x	n/a	US$7.80m

15 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: HCH is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.5x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (1.1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HCH's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HCH PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	0.5x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HCH's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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