Genesis Minerals Limited

CHIA:GMD Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.8b

Genesis Minerals Valuation

Is GMD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GMD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GMD (A$2.47) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$4.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GMD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GMD?

Key metric: As GMD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GMD. This is calculated by dividing GMD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GMD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio33.3x
EarningsAU$84.00m
Market CapAU$2.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GMD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GMD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.7x
BGL Bellevue Gold
22x17.9%AU$1.7b
EMR Emerald Resources
28.9x38.9%AU$2.4b
CMM Capricorn Metals
30x24.3%AU$2.6b
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.8x-13.3%AU$358.3m
GMD Genesis Minerals
33.3x23.1%AU$2.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GMD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.3x) compared to the peer average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GMD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.8x-13.3%US$233.05m
GRR Grange Resources
2.7xn/aUS$184.45m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$182.71m
PTN Patronus Resources
2.3xn/aUS$66.04m
GMD 33.3xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GMD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.3x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GMD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GMD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio33.3x
Fair PE Ratio22.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GMD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GMD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$2.47
AU$2.88
+16.4%
14.8%AU$3.80AU$2.50n/a6
Nov ’25AU$2.33
AU$2.86
+22.7%
15.1%AU$3.80AU$2.50n/a6
Oct ’25AU$2.04
AU$2.60
+27.5%
14.1%AU$3.15AU$2.00n/a6
Sep ’25AU$2.26
AU$2.51
+11.0%
14.6%AU$3.15AU$2.00n/a6
Aug ’25AU$2.13
AU$2.51
+18.0%
14.6%AU$3.15AU$2.00n/a6
Jul ’25AU$1.77
AU$2.28
+28.3%
13.7%AU$2.90AU$1.90n/a6
Jun ’25AU$1.86
AU$2.20
+18.6%
15.6%AU$2.90AU$1.85n/a6
May ’25AU$1.68
AU$2.20
+31.0%
15.6%AU$2.90AU$1.85n/a6
Apr ’25AU$1.85
AU$2.06
+11.3%
15.1%AU$2.60AU$1.70n/a6
Mar ’25AU$1.58
AU$1.99
+26.5%
16.4%AU$2.60AU$1.70n/a6
Feb ’25AU$1.60
AU$2.00
+25.0%
18.4%AU$2.60AU$1.70n/a4
Jan ’25AU$1.79
AU$1.99
+11.0%
9.8%AU$2.25AU$1.70n/a4
Dec ’24AU$1.78
AU$2.05
+15.5%
7.2%AU$2.25AU$1.90n/a3
Nov ’24AU$1.43
AU$2.08
+45.6%
8.4%AU$2.25AU$1.90AU$2.332
Oct ’24AU$1.38
AU$2.10
+52.2%
9.5%AU$2.30AU$1.90AU$2.042

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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