Genesis Minerals Valuation

Is GMD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GMD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GMD (A$2.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$4.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GMD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GMD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GMD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA23.1x
PEG Ratio1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GMD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GMD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20x
BGL Bellevue Gold
22.4x17.9%AU$1.7b
EMR Emerald Resources
29.2x32.9%AU$2.5b
CMM Capricorn Metals
26.6x31.2%AU$2.3b
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.6x-13.3%AU$327.3m
GMD Genesis Minerals
30.9x22.7%AU$2.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GMD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.9x) compared to the peer average (20x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GMD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GMD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.9x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GMD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GMD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30.9x
Fair PE Ratio22.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GMD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GMD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$2.30
AU$2.86
+24.3%
15.1%AU$3.80AU$2.50n/a6
Nov ’25AU$2.33
AU$2.86
+22.7%
15.1%AU$3.80AU$2.50n/a6
Oct ’25AU$2.04
AU$2.60
+27.5%
14.1%AU$3.15AU$2.00n/a6
Sep ’25AU$2.26
AU$2.51
+11.0%
14.6%AU$3.15AU$2.00n/a6
Aug ’25AU$2.13
AU$2.51
+18.0%
14.6%AU$3.15AU$2.00n/a6
Jul ’25AU$1.77
AU$2.28
+28.3%
13.7%AU$2.90AU$1.90n/a6
Jun ’25AU$1.86
AU$2.20
+18.6%
15.6%AU$2.90AU$1.85n/a6
May ’25AU$1.68
AU$2.20
+31.0%
15.6%AU$2.90AU$1.85n/a6
Apr ’25AU$1.85
AU$2.06
+11.3%
15.1%AU$2.60AU$1.70n/a6
Mar ’25AU$1.58
AU$1.99
+26.5%
16.4%AU$2.60AU$1.70n/a6
Feb ’25AU$1.60
AU$2.00
+25.0%
18.4%AU$2.60AU$1.70n/a4
Jan ’25AU$1.79
AU$1.99
+11.0%
9.8%AU$2.25AU$1.70n/a4
Dec ’24AU$1.78
AU$2.05
+15.5%
7.2%AU$2.25AU$1.90n/a3
Nov ’24AU$1.43
AU$2.08
+45.6%
8.4%AU$2.25AU$1.90AU$2.332
Oct ’24AU$1.38
AU$2.10
+52.2%
9.5%AU$2.30AU$1.90AU$2.042

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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