Vysarn Limited's (ASX:VYS) 28% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Despite an already strong run, Vysarn Limited (ASX:VYS) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. The annual gain comes to 170% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

Since its price has surged higher, Vysarn's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.5x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Australia, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Vysarn as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Vysarn

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Vysarn, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Vysarn's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 33% last year. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 46% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 20% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Vysarn is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Vysarn's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Vysarn revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Vysarn.

You might be able to find a better investment than Vysarn. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.