Panoramic Resources (ASX:PAN) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PAN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PAN (A$0.23) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$4.33)

PAN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	6/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	0/6

PAN Stock Overview

Panoramic Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, and mining of mineral deposits.

Rewards

Trading at 94.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 44.17% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Panoramic Resources Competitors

OM Holdings

ASX:OMH

AU$464.1m

Jupiter Mines

ASX:JMS

AU$391.8m

Base Resources

ASX:BSE

AU$339.4m

DDH1

ASX:DDH

AU$341.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Panoramic Resources
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$0.23
52 Week High	AU$0.38
52 Week Low	AU$0.17
Beta	1.33
1 Month Change	15.38%
3 Month Change	-11.77%
1 Year Change	32.35%
3 Year Change	-38.36%
5 Year Change	-10.00%
Change since IPO	45.16%

Shareholder Returns

	PAN	AU Metals and Mining	AU Market
7D	12.5%	4.5%	0.7%
1Y	32.4%	-13.6%	-8.0%

Return vs Industry: PAN exceeded the Australian Metals and Mining industry which returned -13.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PAN exceeded the Australian Market which returned -8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PAN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PAN volatility
PAN Average Weekly Movement	10.9%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	12.2%
Market Average Movement	10.5%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	17.6%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.6%

Stable Share Price: PAN is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 11% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PAN's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2001	n/a	Rickman Rajasooriar	https://www.panoramicresources.com

Panoramic Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, and mining of mineral deposits. It holds 100% interests in the Savannah nickel project in Western Australia. The company also engages in greenfield exploration activities.

Panoramic Resources Fundamentals Summary

How do Panoramic Resources's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PAN fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$471.71m
Earnings (TTM)	AU$1.49m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$21.63m

312.5x

P/E Ratio

21.3x

P/S Ratio

Is PAN overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PAN income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$21.63m
Cost of Revenue	AU$17.76m
Gross Profit	AU$3.87m
Other Expenses	AU$2.38m
Earnings	AU$1.49m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.00072
Gross Margin	17.90%
Net Profit Margin	6.89%
Debt/Equity Ratio	24.6%

How did PAN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PAN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PAN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PAN. This is calculated by dividing PAN's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PAN's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AU$471.71m

PAN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	24.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.1x
PEG Ratio	7.1x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does PAN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

PAN PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for PAN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.4x
OMH OM Holdings	0.4x	8.6%	AU$464.1m
JMS Jupiter Mines	55.1x	n/a	AU$391.8m
BSE Base Resources	1.1x	-20.3%	AU$339.4m
DDH DDH1	1x	21.9%	AU$341.0m
PAN Panoramic Resources	21.3x	56.8%	AU$471.7m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: PAN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (21.3x) compared to the peer average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PAN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: PAN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (21.3x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (44.8x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PAN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PAN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	21.3x
Fair PS Ratio	8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: PAN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (21.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PAN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PAN (A$0.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$4.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PAN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Panoramic Resources forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

6/6

Future Growth Score 6/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

44.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PAN's forecast earnings growth (44.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: PAN's earnings (44.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PAN's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PAN's revenue (56.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PAN's revenue (56.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PAN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (30.7%)

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Past Performance

How has Panoramic Resources performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-20.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PAN has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PAN became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PAN has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -20.5% per year.

Accelerating Growth: PAN has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: PAN has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (57.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: PAN's Return on Equity (0.9%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Panoramic Resources's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PAN's short term assets (A$45.7M) exceed its short term liabilities (A$31.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: PAN's short term assets (A$45.7M) do not cover its long term liabilities (A$87.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PAN's net debt to equity ratio (18.1%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: PAN's debt to equity ratio has increased from 0% to 24.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PAN's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if PAN's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Panoramic Resources's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate PAN's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate PAN's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PAN's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PAN's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: PAN is not paying a notable dividend for the Australian market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as PAN has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Rickman Rajasooriar (48 yo)

2.75yrs

Tenure

AU$1,156,468

Compensation

Mr. Rickman Victor Rajasooriar serves as Managing Director, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of Panoramic Resources Limited since November 11, 2019. Mr. Rajasooriar served as Chief Executive...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Rickman's total compensation ($USD809.51K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD797.23K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Rickman's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PAN's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: PAN's board of directors are considered experienced (4.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/09 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/09 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30