Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 12
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 19% to AU$68.18. The fair value is estimated to be AU$55.91, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 9.3% per annum over the same time period. Live News • Jun 06
Mineral Resources Approves A$490 Million Mt Marion Lithium Expansion With Onslow Iron Progress Mineral Resources and partner Ganfeng have approved a A$490 million spend to expand the Mt Marion lithium operation, including a move into underground mining and construction of a new flotation plant.
The Mt Marion upgrade is aimed at lifting spodumene production capacity, improving recovery rates and extending the mine’s operational life.
Across the wider business, Mineral Resources is leaning on its diversified model across mining services, iron ore, lithium and energy, with the Onslow Iron project singled out as a key growth driver and liquidity and net debt metrics reported as improved following refinancing.
The combination of a large lithium expansion at Mt Marion and ongoing progress at Onslow Iron highlights the importance of project execution and operational reliability to Mineral Resources’ longer-term earnings mix.
Readers may want to monitor capital allocation, cost control and any updates to project timelines, since delays or budget overruns at Mt Marion or Onslow could affect cash flow and the balance between growth spending and returns to shareholders. New Risk • May 19
New minor risk - Insider selling There has been significant insider selling in the company's shares over the past 3 months. Total value of shares sold: AU$122m This is considered a minor risk. There are several reasons why an insider may be selling, including to cover a tax obligation or pay for some other expense. However, we generally consider it a negative if insiders have been selling, especially if they do so below the current price. It implies that they considered a lower price to be reasonable. This is a weak signal, but if there is a pattern of unexplained selling, it can be a sign the insider believes the company's stock is overpriced. Note: We only include open market transactions and private dispositions of directly owned stock by individuals, not by corporations or trusts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.0x net interest cover). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (AU$122m sold). Recent Insider Transactions • May 19
Founder recently sold AU$122m worth of stock On the 11th of May, Christopher Ellison sold around 2m shares on-market at roughly AU$69.98 per share. This transaction amounted to 7.7% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Christopher's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • May 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from AU$5.99b to AU$6.11b. EPS estimate increased from AU$3.79 to AU$4.26 per share. Net income forecast to grow 106% next year vs 34% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Consensus price target up from AU$60.66 to AU$64.01. Share price rose 12% to AU$69.30 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 10
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 consensus EPS increased from AU$4.18 to AU$4.60. Revenues were reaffirmed at AU$5.99b. Net income forecast to grow 120% next year vs 25% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$59.77. Share price fell 9.0% to AU$54.31 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to AU$60.98, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15x. Average forward P/E is 0x in the Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Total loss to shareholders of 30% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at AU$91.00 per share. New Risk • Feb 24
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 10% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.0x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 10% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Feb 22
First half 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First half 2026 results: EPS: AU$2.51 (up from AU$4.10 loss in 1H 2025). Revenue: AU$3.05b (up 33% from 1H 2025). Net income: AU$495.0m (up AU$1.30b from 1H 2025). Profit margin: 16% (up from net loss in 1H 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 8.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 108%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 61 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Jan 30
Price target increased by 7.3% to AU$54.45 Up from AU$50.75, the current price target is an average from 13 analysts. New target price is 11% below last closing price of AU$61.02. Stock is up 70% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$2.59 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$4.59 last year. Price Target Changed • Jan 24
Price target increased by 8.5% to AU$52.18 Up from AU$48.08, the current price target is an average from 13 analysts. New target price is 16% below last closing price of AU$62.30. Stock is up 76% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$1.99 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$4.59 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 25
Independent Non-Executive Director recently sold AU$525k worth of stock On the 22nd of December, Xi Xi sold around 10k shares on-market at roughly AU$52.45 per share. This transaction amounted to 39% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought AU$435k more than they sold in the last 12 months. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 24
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 35% to AU$47.29. The fair value is estimated to be AU$59.20, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.6% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Board Change • Nov 01
High number of new directors There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Non-Executive Director Colin Moorhead was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Price Target Changed • Oct 31
Price target increased by 8.2% to AU$40.59 Up from AU$37.51, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is 16% below last closing price of AU$48.40. Stock is up 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$1.04 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$4.59 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 30
Now 27% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 61% to AU$48.20. The fair value is estimated to be AU$37.98, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.6% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Announcement • Oct 10
Mineral Resources Limited Announces Board and Committee Changes Mineral Resources Limited announced the appointment of Susan Ferrier and Colin Moorhead as Independent Non-Executive Directors effective 10 October 2025. Ms Ferrier and Mr. Moorhead bring decades of leadership experience in mining, finance and professional services, together contributing significant operational, cultural and governance expertise to the Board. Susan Ferrier: Ms Ferrier is an accomplished board director and C-suite executive with more than 30 years of global experience in human resources leadership, cultural transformation and governance across finance and professional services. Between 2019 and 2023, she was Group Executive for People and Culture at National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) where she led a transformation of the human resources function and was accountable for enterprise- wide culture and leadership programs. For the eight years prior, Ms Ferrier held senior global roles with KPMG International, including Global Head of People, Global Head of Inclusion and Diversity, and Australian Managing Partner for People and Culture. Her career also includes 15 years in the United Kingdom in global and regional roles for major financial services organizations including HSBC, Deutsche Bank and ING. Ms Ferrier currently serves as co-Chair of Jawun, a non-profit organisation supporting economic and social development in Indigenous communities. She is also a board member of Airservices Australia and Sydney Symphony Orchestra, where she chairs their respective Remuneration Committees, and serves on the People and Culture Committee at the University of Sydney. Ms Ferrier holds a Bachelor of Laws and Bachelor of Arts from the University of Sydney and is a member of Chief Executive Women. Colin Moorhead: Mr. Moorhead is a seasoned non-executive director, mining executive and geologist with an extensive track record over 35 years across the mining sector. His career spans exploration, project development and operational leadership in the gold, copper, mineral sands and rare earths sectors. Most recently he was Executive Chair and Managing Director of Xanadu Mines, a copper and gold explorer with projects in Mongolia. Under his leadership, the company was successfully sold earlier this year. As Chief Executive Officer of PT Merdeka Copper Gold from 2016 to 2018, Mr. Moorhead also led the successful development of the Tujuh Bukit gold mine in Indonesia, later being appointed an executive director and then non-executive technical director. Earlier in his career, he spent 28 years at Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) 10 of which as an executive, where he was responsible for global exploration and resource development, mine geology and resources and reserves governance. He currently serves as a non-executive director at Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS), Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS), and VHM Ltd. (ASX: VHM). He is a former president of Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM), a former director of the Australian Minerals Industry Research Association (AMIRA) and a former ex-officio member of the Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC). Mr. Moorhead holds a Bachelor of Science (Hons) in Geology and Geophysics from the University of Melbourne and is an alumnus of the Harvard Business School Advanced Management Program. Committee update: Following the appointments, Ms Ferrier will become Chair of the Remuneration and People Committee, and a member of the Nomination Committee. Mr. Moorhead will become Chair of the Technical Committee and a member of the Sustainability Committee. Zimi Meka to retire from the Board: The Company also announces that Non-Executive Director Zimi Meka has advised that, after careful consideration, he will not be standing for re-election at this year's AGM due to his considerable commitments with Ausenco. As a result, he will retire from the Board and cease to be a Director at the conclusion of the Company's Annual General Meeting to be held on 20 November 2025. Mr. Meka has made a significant contribution to the Board including a valued contribution to all Board Committees, chairing the Nominations Committee for the recent appointment of the new Board Chair, and helping guide the Company through a difficult recent period. Price Target Changed • Oct 09
Price target increased by 7.2% to AU$37.29 Up from AU$34.79, the current price target is an average from 16 analysts. New target price is 15% below last closing price of AU$43.63. Stock is down 9.0% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.80 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$4.59 last year. Announcement • Sep 25
Mineral Resources Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 20, 2025 Mineral Resources Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 20, 2025. Price Target Changed • Aug 30
Price target increased by 9.2% to AU$33.47 Up from AU$30.67, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is 10% below last closing price of AU$37.40. Stock is down 6.8% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.47 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$4.59 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 28
Full year 2025 earnings released: AU$4.59 loss per share (vs AU$0.64 profit in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: AU$4.59 loss per share (down from AU$0.64 profit in FY 2024). Revenue: AU$4.69b (down 11% from FY 2024). Net loss: AU$904.0m (down AU$1.03b from profit in FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 90 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Board Change • Aug 01
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Non-Executive Director Ross Carroll was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 01
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to AU$3.98 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 losses forecast to reduce from -AU$4.43 to -AU$3.98 per share. Revenue forecast steady at AU$4.42b. Metals and Mining industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 16% next year. Consensus price target up from AU$27.10 to AU$29.61. Share price fell 11% to AU$28.59 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jul 31
Price target increased by 9.3% to AU$29.61 Up from AU$27.10, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of AU$28.59. Stock is down 47% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of AU$3.98 compared to earnings per share of AU$0.64 last year. Announcement • Jul 07
Mineral Resources Limited Announces Board Changes Mineral Resources Limited announced the appointment of Lawrie Tremaine and Ross Carroll as Independent Non-Executive Directors of the MinRes Board effective 7 July 2025. These appointments demonstrate the Board's commitment to renewal, strengthened governance and financial oversight. Together, Mr. Tremaine and Mr. Carroll bring a wealth of executive management, financial, strategic and capital markets expertise gained from senior leadership roles with ASX-listed companies across the resources, energy and mining services sectors. Mr. Tremaine is a distinguished finance executive with more than 35 years' experience in financial and commercial leadership across the mining, mineral processing, manufacturing, and energy sectors, both in
Australia and internationally. Most recently, he was Chief Financial Officer (CFO) at Origin Energy for seven years until 2024, where he played a central role in strengthening the balance sheet and guiding capital management. He was previously CFO at Woodside Energy for six years, where he led finance, strategy and commercial functions through major investment decisions. His career also includes 17 years at Alcoa, where he established finance infrastructure across Asia Pacific. Mr. Tremaine currently serves as Chair of MoneyCatcha, a private fintech firm. Mr. Tremaine becomes Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee, Chair of the Sustainability Committee and a member of the Ethics and Governance Committee. Mr. Carroll has over 25 years' leadership, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and CFO experience across a range of mining, energy and mining services companies, most recently as CEO of Toronto-listed junior miner Commerce Resources. He was CFO at MMG Limited from 2015 to 2024. During his tenure, he strengthened the company's balance sheet, drove operational efficiencies and led major acquisitions, including the USD 1.9 billion Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana. Between 2012 and 2015, he was CEO of Macmahon Holdings, guiding the mining services contractor through a period of asset divestment and cost reduction. He is also a former CFO of Woodside Energy and previously held a variety of leadership positions in finance and business development at BHP for more than 18 years. Mr. Carroll assumes the position of Chair of the Ethics and Governance Committee and becomes a member of the Audit and Risk Committee and Technical Committee. With the appointments of Mr. Tremaine and Mr. Carroll, the Ethics and Governance Committee will now consist of Mr. Carroll (Chair), Independent Non-Executive Board Chair Malcolm Bundey, Mr. Tremaine and Independent Non-Executive Director Justin Langer. Independent Non-Executive Director Xi Xi stepped down as Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee, with that Committee now consisting of Mr. Tremaine (Chair), Ms Xi, Mr. Carroll and Mr. Bundey. Independent Non-Executive Director Colleen Hayward stepped down from the Audit and Risk Committee, a role she has been involved in since May 2023, and continues in roles on the Remuneration and People Committee and the Sustainability Committee. Announcement • Jun 30
Yilgarn Iron Investments Pty Ltd acquired Yilgarn Hub Iron Ore Complex of Mineral Resources Limited from Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN). Yilgarn Iron Investments Pty Ltd acquired Yilgarn Hub Iron Ore Complex of Mineral Resources Limited from Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) on June 30, 2025. As part of the acquisition, Yilgarn Iron Investments Pty Ltd has acquired all shares in Yilgarn Iron Pty Ltd, as well as other tenements and land interests across the Yilgarn Hub, associated approvals, licences, entitlements and fixed assets and will be responsible for and indemnifies MinRes against all environmental, closure and rehabilitation liabilities in relation to Yilgarn Hub assets. Following the acquisition, MinRes has retained all gold and lithium rights on tenements within the Yilgarn Hub.
Yilgarn Iron Investments Pty Ltd completed the acquisition of Yilgarn Hub Iron Ore Complex of Mineral Resources Limited from Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) on June 30, 2025. Announcement • May 12
An undisclosed buyer acquired an unknown stake in Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) from HESTA managed by H.E.S.T. Australia Ltd. An undisclosed buyer acquired an unknown stake in Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) from HESTA managed by H.E.S.T. Australia Ltd on May 12, 2025.
An undisclosed buyer completed the acquisition of an unknown stake in Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) from HESTA managed by H.E.S.T. Australia Ltd on May 12, 2025. Announcement • Apr 25
Mineral Resources Reportedly Explores Sale of Bald Hill Lithium Mine Further speculation has surfaced in the market about asset sales being explored by Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN), with the latest being its $1 billion Bald Hill lithium mine in Western Australia's Goldfields region. DataRoom understands that Mineral Resources adviser JPMorgan may have been quietly courting suitors that could be keen to buy the asset that Chris Ellison's Mineral Resources has outlaid about $1 billion on in terms of investment. However, the mine was placed into care and maintenance late last year following a strategic review on the back of a prolonged period of low lithium prices. DataRoom reported this month that Mineral Resources quietly launched a sale process for its Wodgina lithium operation late last year and has tested the market for an equity raising. This was as bonds for MinRes had started trading at a discount of 10c-15c in the dollar amid volatile market conditions that had weakened bond prices generally as investors search for liquidity. MinRes now says it has no plans to sell Wodgina, suggesting that interest from the groups it approached, such as South Korea's LG Chemical and other Japanese trading houses and car manufactures like Mitsubishi, did not offer an adequate price. Broker consensus estimates for the 50% interest in Wodgina are around $2.2 billion and offers were understood to have come in lower than that. Announcement • Mar 24
Mineral Resources Limited Announces Onslow Iron Haulage Operations Resume Mineral Resources Limited advised haulage operations resumed on the Onslow Iron dedicated haul road on the evening of 21 March 2025. The resumption followed constructive discussions with WorkSafe WA regarding controls and risk mitigation. The previously announced works program to upgrade the haul road continues on schedule for completion in
Q1 FY26. Transhipper four, MinRes Rosily, also commenced operations at the Port of Ashburton on 22 March 2025, increasing Onslow Iron's transhipping capacity to 28 million tonnes per annum. FY25 Onslow Iron volume guidance is maintained. Announcement • Mar 21
Mineral Resources Limited Provides Update on Onslow Iron Haulage Operations Mineral Resources Limited advised that haulage on the Onslow Iron haul road has been temporarily paused while the Company engages with WorkSafe WA on their notice issued on 18 March 2025 relating to controls and risk-mitigation of the road train operations. MinRes reported to WorkSafe WA that the rear two trailers of a road train had tipped onto their side on the haul road on 17 March 2025. The prime mover and first trailer remained upright, and the operator was not injured. The cause of the incident is under internal investigation. Haulage is continuing via contractor vehicles using alternative routes, and MinRes transhippers will continue to load ocean-going vessels during this period. MinRes has strengthened controls and traffic management on the haul road and currently expects to resume haul road operations without impacting FY25 Onslow Iron volume guidance. Price Target Changed • Feb 20
Price target decreased by 7.8% to AU$39.55 Down from AU$42.89, the current price target is an average from 17 analysts. New target price is 53% above last closing price of AU$25.83. Stock is down 58% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of AU$4.18 compared to earnings per share of AU$0.64 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 19
First half 2025 earnings released: AU$4.10 loss per share (vs AU$2.82 profit in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: AU$4.10 loss per share (down from AU$2.82 profit in 1H 2024). Revenue: AU$2.29b (down 8.9% from 1H 2024). Net loss: AU$809.0m (down 247% from profit in 1H 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 67 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 203%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast increased from AU$4.44b to AU$4.52b. Forecast EPS reduced from -AU$1.64 to -AU$4.98 per share. Metals and Mining industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target down from AU$43.64 to AU$42.73. Share price fell 6.5% to AU$30.50 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 31
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 30% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -AU$1.41 to -AU$1.83 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at AU$4.51b. Metals and Mining industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 17% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$43.65. Share price was steady at AU$35.93 over the past week. Announcement • Dec 19
Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd completed the acquisition of Exploration Permits (EP) 368 and 426 from Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN). Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd agreed to acquire Exploration Permits (EP) 368 and 426 from Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) on October 31, 2024. As per the transaction, Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd has also entered into two joint venture agreements over MinRes’ remaining onshore Perth Basin and Carnarvon Basin exploration acreage. The total consideration paid by Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd for the agreements are AUD 1.13 billion.
Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd completed the acquisition of Exploration Permits (EP) 368 and 426 from Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) on December 18, 2024. Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd has received receipt of initial consideration of $780 million. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 01
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast increased from AU$4.46b to AU$4.52b. Forecast EPS reduced from -AU$0.28 to -AU$0.332 per share. Metals and Mining industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 24% next year. Consensus price target down from AU$50.01 to AU$48.91. Share price rose 9.7% to AU$39.40 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 21
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 22% After last week's 22% share price decline to AU$39.55, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 61.7x. Average trailing P/E is 13x in the Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Total loss to shareholders of 3.8% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 02
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 439% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -AU$0.03 to -AU$0.163 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at AU$4.56b. Metals and Mining industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$52.46. Share price rose 32% to AU$51.61 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 34% After last week's 34% share price gain to AU$49.14, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 76.7x. Average trailing P/E is 13x in the Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Total returns to shareholders of 23% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at AU$91.97 per share. Announcement • Sep 25
Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Inc. acquired 49% stake in Onslow Iron Project’s Haul Road from Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) for AUD 1.3 billion. Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Inc. agreed to acquire 49% stake in Onslow Iron Project’s Haul Road from Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) for AUD 1.3 billion on June 5, 2024. A cash consideration of AUD 1.1 billion will be paid by Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Inc. Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Inc. will pay an earnout/contingent payment of AUD 200 million cash, subject to to achieving a 35Mtpa run rate for any quarter before 30 June, 2026. The completion is expected in the second half of 2024.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. acted as financial advisor for Mineral Resources Limited. David John & David Ryan of Herbert Smith Freehills LLP acted as legal advisor for Mineral Resources Limited. Emin Altiparmak, Igor Bogdanich, Wendy Rae, David Couper, Matthew Whittle, David Donnelly, David McLeish, Eve Lynch and Penny Nikoloudis of Allens advised Morgan Stanley Infrastructure.
As of September 10, 2024, The transaction has been approved by the Foreign Investment Review Board, all conditions precedent are satisfied and completion of the transaction is due to occur within 15 business days.
Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Inc. completed the acquisition of 49% stake in Onslow Iron Project’s Haul Road from Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) on September 25, 2024. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 21
Consensus EPS estimates have been downgraded. The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from AU$4.71b to AU$4.59b. Now expected to report a loss of AU$0.025 per share instead of AU$0.121 per share profit previously forecast. Metals and Mining industry in Australia expected to see average net income growth of 29% next year. Consensus price target down from AU$54.36 to AU$52.91. Share price fell 4.3% to AU$36.70 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 12
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 54% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from AU$0.109 to AU$0.169. Revenue forecast steady at AU$4.71b. Net income forecast to shrink 228% next year vs 34% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Australia . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$54.07. Share price rose 18% to AU$38.02 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 09
Price target decreased by 7.1% to AU$54.72 Down from AU$58.93, the current price target is an average from 17 analysts. New target price is 80% above last closing price of AU$30.40. Stock is down 56% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.11 for next year compared to AU$0.64 last year. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Sep 08
Founder exercised options to buy AU$3.4m worth of stock. On the 31st of August, Christopher Ellison exercised options to buy 112k shares at a strike price of around AU$41.65, costing a total of AU$4.7m. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since September 2023, Christopher's direct individual holding has increased from 22.47m shares to 22.89m. Company insiders have collectively bought AU$4.7m more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to AU$36.17, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 159x. Average trailing P/E is 13x in the Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Total loss to shareholders of 27% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Aug 30
Price target decreased by 9.2% to AU$58.58 Down from AU$64.50, the current price target is an average from 17 analysts. New target price is 46% above last closing price of AU$40.15. Stock is down 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.014 for next year compared to AU$0.64 last year. Price Target Changed • Aug 29
Price target decreased by 7.1% to AU$61.06 Down from AU$65.73, the current price target is an average from 17 analysts. New target price is 50% above last closing price of AU$40.61. Stock is down 43% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of AU$0.084 compared to earnings per share of AU$0.64 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: AU$0.64 (down from AU$1.27 in FY 2023). Revenue: AU$5.75b (up 20% from FY 2023). Net income: AU$125.0m (down 49% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.2% (down from 5.1% in FY 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 67%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 54% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 29
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 85% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from AU$0.069 to AU$0.011 per share. Revenue forecast steady at AU$4.92b. Net income forecast to shrink 38% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Australia . Consensus price target down from AU$65.73 to AU$63.85. Share price fell 4.0% to AU$44.18 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 29
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 37% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from AU$4.73b to AU$4.81b. EPS estimate increased from AU$1.95 to AU$2.67 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 33% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Australia . Consensus price target down from AU$69.10 to AU$66.68. Share price was steady at AU$54.00 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 01
Now 41% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 23% to AU$54.94. The fair value is estimated to be AU$93.81, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 17% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 37%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 12% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 27% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 21
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 19% to AU$55.76. The fair value is estimated to be AU$72.01, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 17% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 37%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 12% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 26% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 25
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from AU$4.79b to AU$4.73b. EPS estimate also fell from AU$2.88 per share to AU$2.58 per share. Net income forecast to grow 45% next year vs 28% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$69.48. Share price was steady at AU$68.82 over the past week. New Risk • Apr 20
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.4% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.2x net interest cover). High level of non-cash earnings (33% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.9% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.4% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Mar 20
Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) entered into binding heads of agreement to acquire Lake Johnston Project from Poseidon Nickel Limited (ASX:POS) for AUD 15 million. Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) entered into binding heads of agreement to acquire Lake Johnston Project from Poseidon Nickel Limited (ASX:POS) for AUD 15 million on March 18, 2024. Consideration comprises of AUD 1 million non-refundable cash payment, AUD 6.5 million payable on completion of a formal sale and purchase agreement and AUD 7.5 million deferred payment (payable 12 months after completion). The transaction is conditional upon completion of legal due diligence on the sale assets to the reasonable satisfaction of Mineral Resources, the Parties entering into an assignment deed with the relevant parties in respect of the Ngadju Native Title Agreement on terms acceptable to Poseidon Nickel and the consent of the Minister for Mines and Petroleum being obtained under the Mining Act for the transfer of all the rights and obligations in respect of the tenements. The transaction will provide Poseidon with the funding to execute Mineral Resources' strategy which includes an exploration focus targeting high-grade nickel discoveries, continuing with reduced care and maintenance activities at Black Swan (to conserve funds) and pursuing new opportunities. The transaction is expected to close within thirty days of execution of the binding heads of agreement. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 28
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 124% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from AU$4.79b to AU$4.89b. EPS estimate increased from AU$1.38 to AU$3.09 per share. Net income forecast to grow 50% next year vs 29% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Australia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$66.43. Share price rose 8.8% to AU$64.61 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Feb 23
First half dividend reduced to AU$0.20 Dividend of AU$0.20 is 83% lower than last year. Ex-date: 1st March 2024 Payment date: 26th March 2024 Dividend yield will be 1.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 5.1%. Reported Earnings • Feb 22
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$2.76 (vs AU$2.06 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: AU$2.76 (up from AU$2.06 in 1H 2023). Revenue: AU$2.51b (up 7.0% from 1H 2023). Net income: AU$537.3m (up 38% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 21% (up from 17% in 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Australia are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 37% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. 
