Macmahon Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of MAH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MAH (A$0.35) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$1.24)

Is MAH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MAH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MAH (A$0.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MAH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MAH?

Key metric: As MAH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MAH. This is calculated by dividing MAH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MAH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	13.7x
Earnings	AU$53.23m
Market Cap	AU$728.47m

MAH key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	4x
PEG Ratio	1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MAH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MAH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	28.9x
BLY Boart Longyear Group	42.4x	n/a	AU$861.1m
PRN Perenti	12.1x	23.3%	AU$1.2b
MLX Metals X	21.4x	n/a	AU$372.1m
IMD Imdex	39.8x	19.6%	AU$1.3b
MAH Macmahon Holdings	13.7x	11.1%	AU$728.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MAH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the peer average (28.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MAH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated	1.7x	-13.3%	US$225.14m
GRR Grange Resources	2.6x	n/a	US$181.06m
RHI Red Hill Minerals	1.8x	n/a	US$179.75m
PTN Patronus Resources	2.4x	n/a	US$68.31m

9 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MAH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MAH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MAH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.7x
Fair PE Ratio	16x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MAH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MAH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$0.34	AU$0.34 0%	7.2%	AU$0.37	AU$0.32	n/a	2
Nov ’25	AU$0.38	AU$0.34 -8.0%	7.2%	AU$0.37	AU$0.32	n/a	2
Oct ’25	AU$0.32	AU$0.32 +1.0%	11.4%	AU$0.37	AU$0.28	n/a	3
Sep ’25	AU$0.34	AU$0.32 -3.5%	11.4%	AU$0.37	AU$0.28	n/a	3
Jul ’25	AU$0.27	AU$0.27 +1.2%	3.5%	AU$0.28	AU$0.26	n/a	3
Jun ’25	AU$0.28	AU$0.27 -2.7%	3.0%	AU$0.28	AU$0.26	n/a	4
May ’25	AU$0.24	AU$0.27 +11.2%	3.0%	AU$0.28	AU$0.26	n/a	4
Apr ’25	AU$0.23	AU$0.27 +18.9%	4.9%	AU$0.28	AU$0.25	n/a	4
Mar ’25	AU$0.19	AU$0.26 +38.6%	4.7%	AU$0.28	AU$0.25	n/a	3
Feb ’25	AU$0.17	AU$0.25 +41.0%	1.9%	AU$0.25	AU$0.24	n/a	3
Jan ’25	AU$0.18	AU$0.25 +33.3%	1.9%	AU$0.25	AU$0.24	n/a	3
Dec ’24	AU$0.18	AU$0.25 +33.3%	1.9%	AU$0.25	AU$0.24	n/a	3
Nov ’24	AU$0.15	AU$0.24 +60.0%	5.1%	AU$0.25	AU$0.22	AU$0.38	4
Oct ’24	AU$0.17	AU$0.24 +41.2%	5.1%	AU$0.25	AU$0.22	AU$0.32	4
Sep ’24	AU$0.17	AU$0.24 +41.2%	5.1%	AU$0.25	AU$0.22	AU$0.34	4
Aug ’24	AU$0.14	AU$0.23 +60.3%	4.7%	AU$0.25	AU$0.22	AU$0.28	4
Jul ’24	AU$0.15	AU$0.23 +50.0%	4.7%	AU$0.25	AU$0.22	AU$0.27	4
Jun ’24	AU$0.13	AU$0.23 +86.0%	4.7%	AU$0.25	AU$0.22	AU$0.28	4
May ’24	AU$0.14	AU$0.23 +72.2%	4.7%	AU$0.25	AU$0.22	AU$0.24	4
Apr ’24	AU$0.14	AU$0.22 +51.7%	13.6%	AU$0.25	AU$0.17	AU$0.23	4
Mar ’24	AU$0.15	AU$0.23 +48.4%	14.6%	AU$0.27	AU$0.17	AU$0.19	5
Feb ’24	AU$0.17	AU$0.24 +45.5%	14.9%	AU$0.27	AU$0.17	AU$0.17	5
Jan ’24	AU$0.14	AU$0.24 +65.5%	14.9%	AU$0.27	AU$0.17	AU$0.18	5
Dec ’23	AU$0.17	AU$0.24 +45.5%	14.9%	AU$0.27	AU$0.17	AU$0.18	5
Nov ’23	AU$0.14	AU$0.24 +74.8%	15.1%	AU$0.27	AU$0.17	AU$0.15	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Incitec Pivot

AU$6.0b

Manufactures and distributes industrial explosives, industrial chemicals, and fertilizers in Australia and the United State.

IPL

AU$3.16

5.2%

11.3%

Aurelia Metals

AU$296.0m

Engages in the exploration and production of mineral properties in Australia.

AMI

AU$0.17

6.1%

66.7%

Aurelia Metals

AU$296.0m

Engages in the exploration and production of mineral properties in Australia.

AMI

AU$0.17

58.1%