Ionic Rare Earths Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of IXR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

IXR (A$0.01) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$0.56)

Is IXR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IXR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: IXR (A$0.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IXR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IXR?

Key metric: As IXR is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for IXR. This is calculated by dividing IXR's market cap by their current revenue.
What is IXR's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	13.9x
Sales	AU$2.21m
Market Cap	AU$30.71m

IXR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	11.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-1.2x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does IXR's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for IXR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.8x
NXM Nexus Minerals	16.8x	n/a	AU$22.9m
AXN Alliance Nickel	22.3x	n/a	AU$25.4m
MLS Metals Australia	19.3x	n/a	AU$15.3m
FML Focus Minerals	0.7x	n/a	AU$48.7m
IXR Ionic Rare Earths	13.9x	80.0%	AU$30.7m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: IXR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.9x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does IXR's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

126 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
BHP BHP Group	2.2x	-3.1%	US$125.60b
FMG Fortescue	1.9x	-5.5%	US$35.01b
NCM Newcrest Mining	3x	5.2%	US$13.37b
NST Northern Star Resources	3.6x	8.9%	US$10.95b

126 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: IXR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.9x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (58x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IXR's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IXR PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	13.9x
Fair PS Ratio	107.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: IXR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (107.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IXR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$0.006	AU$0.12 +1,846.6%	2.6%	AU$0.12	AU$0.11	n/a	2
Dec ’25	AU$0.007	AU$0.12 +1,568.5%	2.6%	AU$0.12	AU$0.11	n/a	2
Nov ’25	AU$0.0095	AU$0.10 +986.2%	6.5%	AU$0.11	AU$0.097	n/a	2
Oct ’25	AU$0.009	AU$0.10 +1,046.5%	6.5%	AU$0.11	AU$0.097	n/a	2
Sep ’25	AU$0.006	AU$0.097 +1,518.2%	2.4%	AU$0.099	AU$0.095	n/a	2
Aug ’25	AU$0.01	AU$0.097 +870.9%	2.4%	AU$0.099	AU$0.095	n/a	2
Jun ’25	AU$0.013	AU$0.081 +550.8%	27.8%	AU$0.097	AU$0.049	n/a	3
May ’25	AU$0.013	AU$0.081 +524.5%	27.1%	AU$0.099	AU$0.05	n/a	3
Apr ’25	AU$0.019	AU$0.081 +327.3%	27.1%	AU$0.099	AU$0.05	n/a	3
Mar ’25	AU$0.018	AU$0.082 +356.4%	26.9%	AU$0.10	AU$0.051	n/a	3
Feb ’25	AU$0.019	AU$0.073 +284.0%	29.2%	AU$0.10	AU$0.049	n/a	3
Jan ’25	AU$0.026	AU$0.073 +180.6%	29.2%	AU$0.10	AU$0.049	n/a	3
Dec ’24	AU$0.021	AU$0.075 +255.1%	33.3%	AU$0.099	AU$0.05	AU$0.007	2
Nov ’24	AU$0.021	AU$0.075 +255.1%	33.3%	AU$0.099	AU$0.05	AU$0.0095	2
Oct ’24	AU$0.023	AU$0.075 +224.2%	33.3%	AU$0.099	AU$0.05	AU$0.009	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/21 00:55
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ionic Rare Earths Limited is covered by 3 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
null null	ACF Equity Research Limited
Michael Bentley	MST Financial Services Pty Limited
Justin Chan	SCP Resource Finance LP