The IGO Limited (ASX:IGO) Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Sales Forecasts

Today is shaping up negative for IGO Limited (ASX:IGO) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following the latest downgrade, the 14 analysts covering IGO provided consensus estimates of AU$544m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a stressful 41% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to step up 13% to AU$0.34. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$663m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.35 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that analyst sentiment has declined measurably after the new consensus came out, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a minor downgrade to EPS estimates to boot.

Check out our latest analysis for IGO

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 7.1% to AU$6.37.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 41% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - IGO is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for IGO. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of IGO's future valuation. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on IGO after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for IGO going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com