Is AIC Mines Limited (ASX:A1M) Worth AU$0.4 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, AIC Mines fair value estimate is AU$0.33
• Current share price of AU$0.41 suggests AIC Mines is potentially 25% overvalued
• Analyst price target for A1M is AU$0.63, which is 91% above our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of AIC Mines Limited (ASX:A1M) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for AIC Mines

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	-AU$27.5m	-AU$12.0m	AU$9.00m	AU$10.8m	AU$12.4m	AU$13.7m	AU$14.8m	AU$15.8m	AU$16.6m	AU$17.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 20.04%	Est @ 14.62%	Est @ 10.82%	Est @ 8.16%	Est @ 6.30%	Est @ 5.00%	Est @ 4.09%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3%	-AU$25.4	-AU$10.2	AU$7.1	AU$7.8	AU$8.3	AU$8.5	AU$8.5	AU$8.3	AU$8.1	AU$7.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$29m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$17m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.3%– 2.0%) = AU$276m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$276m÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)¹⁰= AU$124m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$153m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$0.4, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at AIC Mines as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.071. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for AIC Mines

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For AIC Mines, there are three essential factors you should explore:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - AIC Mines has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does A1M's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.