Stock Analysis

Investors ignore increasing losses at Cyclopharm (ASX:CYC) as stock jumps 15% this past week

ASX:CYC
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When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the Cyclopharm Limited (ASX:CYC) share price is up 44% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 27% (ignoring dividends).

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Cyclopharm

Because Cyclopharm made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last 5 years Cyclopharm saw its revenue grow at 12% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. Revenue has been growing at a reasonable clip, so it's debatable whether the share price growth of 8% full reflects the underlying business growth. The key question is whether revenue growth will slow down, and if so, how quickly. There's no doubt that it can be difficult to value pre-profit companies.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:CYC Earnings and Revenue Growth November 28th 2024

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Cyclopharm's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Cyclopharm shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 48%, over the last 5 years, is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Cyclopharm shareholders are down 22% for the year, but the market itself is up 23%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Cyclopharm .

Of course Cyclopharm may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.