Cogstate Limited

ASX:CGS Stock Report

Mkt Cap: AU$281.4m

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Cogstate Valuation

Is CGS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CGS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CGS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA33.8x
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CGS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CGS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average47.1x
PME Pro Medicus
130.1x19.6%AU$6.6b
MVF Monash IVF Group
26.5x20.6%AU$455.9m
ACL Australian Clinical Labs
9.5x-12.9%AU$692.2m
SLA SILK Laser Australia
22.2x22.4%AU$160.4m
CGS Cogstate
53.9x53.7%AU$281.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CGS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.9x) compared to the peer average (47.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CGS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Healthcare Services Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a26.0%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a26.0%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CGS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.9x) compared to the Global Healthcare Services industry average (37.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CGS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CGS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio53.9x
Fair PE Ratio58.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CGS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (58.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CGS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CGS (A$1.63) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$2.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CGS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CGS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.63
AU$1.82
+12.2%
19.1%AU$2.18AU$1.31n/a4
May ’24AU$1.59
AU$1.87
+18.1%
19.3%AU$2.20AU$1.31n/a4
Apr ’24AU$1.51
AU$1.92
+27.4%
19.6%AU$2.26AU$1.31n/a4
Mar ’24AU$1.53
AU$1.96
+28.2%
16.2%AU$2.26AU$1.46n/a4
Feb ’24AU$1.99
AU$2.04
+2.6%
17.6%AU$2.40AU$1.46n/a4
Jan ’24AU$1.96
AU$2.04
+4.2%
17.6%AU$2.40AU$1.46n/a4
Dec ’23AU$1.83
AU$2.04
+11.6%
17.6%AU$2.40AU$1.46n/a4
Nov ’23AU$1.81
AU$2.11
+16.4%
19.5%AU$2.60AU$1.46n/a4
Oct ’23AU$2.16
AU$2.12
-1.9%
19.5%AU$2.60AU$1.46n/a4
Sep ’23AU$1.51
AU$2.18
+44.4%
10.4%AU$2.50AU$2.00n/a3
Aug ’23AU$1.87
AU$2.46
+32.1%
10.0%AU$2.75AU$2.15n/a3
Jul ’23AU$1.45
AU$2.60
+80.2%
15.6%AU$3.01AU$2.05n/a3
Jun ’23AU$1.75
AU$2.88
+65.0%
4.5%AU$3.01AU$2.75AU$1.602
May ’23AU$2.18
AU$2.88
+32.1%
4.5%AU$3.01AU$2.75AU$1.592
Apr ’23AU$2.33
AU$2.76
+18.2%
9.3%AU$3.01AU$2.50AU$1.512
Mar ’23AU$2.06
AU$2.76
+33.7%
9.3%AU$3.01AU$2.50AU$1.532
Feb ’23AU$1.80
AU$2.88
+60.0%
0%AU$2.88AU$2.88AU$1.991
Jan ’23AU$2.42
AU$2.88
+19.0%
0%AU$2.88AU$2.88AU$1.961
Dec ’22AU$2.32
AU$2.88
+24.1%
0%AU$2.88AU$2.88AU$1.831
Nov ’22AU$2.33
AU$2.88
+23.6%
0%AU$2.88AU$2.88AU$1.811
Oct ’22AU$2.33
AU$2.88
+23.6%
0%AU$2.88AU$2.88AU$2.161

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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