Australian Vintage Ltd

CHIA:AVG Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$44.5m

Australian Vintage Valuation

Is AVG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AVG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AVG (A$0.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AVG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVG?

Key metric: As AVG is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AVG. This is calculated by dividing AVG's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AVG's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.2x
SalesAU$260.59m
Market CapAU$44.48m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AVG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AVG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.7x
LRK LARK Distilling
7.3x22.7%AU$121.1m
TSI Top Shelf International Holdings
0.7xn/aAU$13.0m
GDA Good Drinks Australia
0.4xn/aAU$39.6m
DBF Duxton Farms
2.4xn/aAU$55.9m
AVG Australian Vintage
0.2x2.0%AU$44.5m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AVG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (2.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AVG's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Beverage Industry?

43 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.8x6.9%
AVG Australian Vintage
 0.2x2.0%US$28.82m
AVG 0.2xIndustry Avg. 1.8xNo. of Companies46PS01.63.24.86.48+
43 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.8x11.3%
AVG Australian Vintage
 0.2x107.7%US$28.82m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AVG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the Global Beverage industry average (1.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AVG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AVG PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.2x
Fair PS Ratio0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AVG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AVG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.13
AU$0.28
+107.5%
30.9%AU$0.36AU$0.19n/a2
Nov ’25AU$0.14
AU$0.28
+96.4%
30.9%AU$0.36AU$0.19n/a2
Oct ’25AU$0.15
AU$0.28
+83.3%
30.9%AU$0.36AU$0.19n/a2
Sep ’25AU$0.17
AU$0.28
+66.7%
30.9%AU$0.36AU$0.19n/a2
Aug ’25AU$0.15
AU$0.31
+106.7%
32.3%AU$0.41AU$0.21n/a2
Jul ’25AU$0.16
AU$0.31
+90.8%
32.3%AU$0.41AU$0.21n/a2
Jun ’25n/a
AU$0.54
0%
24.1%AU$0.67AU$0.41n/a2
May ’25AU$0.36
AU$0.52
+42.5%
19.3%AU$0.67AU$0.41n/a4
Apr ’25AU$0.40
AU$0.47
+17.5%
12.5%AU$0.55AU$0.41n/a3
Mar ’25AU$0.37
AU$0.48
+28.9%
15.1%AU$0.58AU$0.41n/a3
Feb ’25AU$0.38
AU$0.51
+36.9%
9.7%AU$0.58AU$0.46n/a3
Jan ’25AU$0.41
AU$0.51
+26.7%
9.7%AU$0.58AU$0.46n/a3
Dec ’24AU$0.41
AU$0.51
+25.2%
9.7%AU$0.58AU$0.46n/a3
Nov ’24AU$0.40
AU$0.60
+53.2%
27.2%AU$0.88AU$0.46AU$0.144
Oct ’24AU$0.38
AU$0.60
+59.2%
27.2%AU$0.88AU$0.46AU$0.154
Sep ’24AU$0.40
AU$0.60
+51.2%
27.2%AU$0.88AU$0.46AU$0.174
Aug ’24AU$0.42
AU$0.61
+43.5%
26.9%AU$0.88AU$0.46AU$0.154
Jul ’24AU$0.41
AU$0.61
+50.6%
26.9%AU$0.88AU$0.46AU$0.164
Jun ’24AU$0.47
AU$0.72
+55.4%
14.9%AU$0.88AU$0.60n/a4
May ’24AU$0.51
AU$0.72
+41.7%
14.9%AU$0.88AU$0.60AU$0.364
Apr ’24AU$0.54
AU$0.67
+24.1%
10.0%AU$0.76AU$0.60AU$0.403
Mar ’24AU$0.59
AU$0.67
+13.6%
10.0%AU$0.76AU$0.60AU$0.373
Feb ’24AU$0.60
AU$0.76
+26.2%
11.8%AU$0.87AU$0.65AU$0.383
Jan ’24AU$0.61
AU$0.76
+25.1%
11.8%AU$0.87AU$0.65AU$0.413
Dec ’23AU$0.60
AU$0.79
+31.7%
2.5%AU$0.81AU$0.77AU$0.412
Nov ’23AU$0.66
AU$0.83
+25.8%
7.2%AU$0.89AU$0.77AU$0.402

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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