Bega Cheese Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Bega Cheese is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 22.5% and 3.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 22.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 7.7% in 3 years.

Key information

22.5%

Earnings growth rate

22.5%

EPS growth rate

Food earnings growth	16.3%
Revenue growth rate	3.7%
Future return on equity	7.7%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	19 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Revenues Not Telling The Story For Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) After Shares Rise 26%

Sep 27

Is Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) Trading At A 43% Discount?

Jun 03

Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) Shares Could Be 27% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Jan 22

Is Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) Using Too Much Debt?

Oct 13

Bega Cheese Limited's (ASX:BGA) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 30% Above Its Share Price

Mar 15

Analysts Are Betting On Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) With A Big Upgrade This Week

Feb 25

Why Bega Cheese's (ASX:BGA) CEO Pay Matters

Feb 15

Does Bega Cheese Limited's (ASX:BGA) Weak Fundamentals Mean That The Market Could Correct Its Share Price?

Feb 03

An Intrinsic Calculation For Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) Suggests It's 24% Undervalued

Jan 22

We Wouldn't Rely On Bega Cheese's (ASX:BGA) Statutory Earnings As A Guide

Jan 10

Three Things You Should Check Before Buying Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) For Its Dividend

Dec 29

Here's Why Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Dec 17

Should Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) Be Disappointed With Their 48% Profit?

Dec 06

What Kind Of Shareholders Hold The Majority In Bega Cheese Limited's (ASX:BGA) Shares?

Nov 25

Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) Will Pay A AU$0.05 Dividend In Four Days

Sep 02

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:BGA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2027	3,894	84	67	166	8
6/30/2026	3,763	71	60	154	9
6/30/2025	3,640	54	23	123	9
6/30/2024	3,522	31	67	134	N/A
3/31/2024	3,475	-90	-2	75	N/A
12/24/2023	3,429	-211	-71	16	N/A
9/24/2023	3,402	-220	-65	12	N/A
6/30/2023	3,376	-230	-60	8	N/A
3/31/2023	3,277	-113	-2	64	N/A
12/25/2022	3,178	4	55	119	N/A
9/25/2022	3,094	14	71	139	N/A
6/30/2022	3,010	24	86	158	N/A
3/31/2022	2,941	54	84	146	N/A
12/26/2021	2,873	84	82	133	N/A
9/26/2021	2,473	81	80	122	N/A
6/30/2021	2,073	78	79	111	N/A
3/31/2021	1,767	56	75	109	N/A
12/27/2020	1,460	34	71	107	N/A
9/27/2020	1,476	28	76	122	N/A
6/30/2020	1,493	21	81	138	N/A
3/31/2020	1,503	15	139	202	N/A
12/29/2019	1,512	8	198	267	N/A
9/29/2019	1,466	6	118	183	N/A
6/30/2019	1,420	4	38	100	N/A
3/31/2019	1,354	9	-44	13	N/A
12/30/2018	1,288	13	-126	-75	N/A
9/30/2018	1,270	21	-57	-8	N/A
6/30/2018	1,252	29	12	59	N/A
3/31/2018	1,236	86	N/A	63	N/A
12/31/2017	1,219	144	N/A	67	N/A
9/30/2017	1,223	141	N/A	68	N/A
6/30/2017	1,227	139	N/A	70	N/A
3/31/2017	1,241	84	N/A	66	N/A
12/25/2016	1,256	30	N/A	62	N/A
9/25/2016	1,226	29	N/A	60	N/A
6/30/2016	1,196	29	N/A	59	N/A
3/31/2016	1,159	25	N/A	49	N/A
12/27/2015	1,122	21	N/A	39	N/A
9/27/2015	1,117	17	N/A	11	N/A
6/30/2015	1,113	12	N/A	-17	N/A
3/31/2015	1,112	33	N/A	-17	N/A
12/28/2014	1,111	53	N/A	-16	N/A
9/28/2014	1,090	60	N/A	12	N/A
6/30/2014	1,069	66	N/A	40	N/A
3/31/2014	1,047	47	N/A	53	N/A
12/29/2013	1,025	28	N/A	65	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BGA's forecast earnings growth (22.5% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: BGA's earnings (22.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BGA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BGA's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (5.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BGA's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BGA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.7%).

Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/20 15:09
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Bega Cheese Limited is covered by 18 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Russell Wright	Barclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Josh Kannourakis	Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Jonathan Snape	Bell Potter

Bega Cheese Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target increased by 10% to AU$4.54

Price target increased by 7.4% to AU$3.67

Consensus EPS estimates fall from profit to AU$0.63 loss

Price target decreased by 7.3% to AU$3.44

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 39%, revenue upgraded

Price target decreased to AU$4.91

Recent updates

Revenues Not Telling The Story For Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) After Shares Rise 26%

Bega Cheese Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 30, 2024

Non-Executive Director recently sold AU$179k worth of stock

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20%

Final dividend of AU$0.04 announced

New minor risk - Earnings quality

Price target increased by 10% to AU$4.54

Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Now 20% undervalued

Is Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) Trading At A 43% Discount?

Non-Executive Director recently sold AU$209k worth of stock

First half dividend of AU$0.04 announced

First half 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Price target increased by 7.4% to AU$3.67

Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) Shares Could Be 27% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) completed the acquisition of Businesses and certain assets of Betta Milk and Meander Valley Dairy from TasFoods Limited (ASX:TFL) and The Van Diemen's Land Company.

Is Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) Using Too Much Debt?

Insufficient new directors

Bega Cheese Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 24, 2023

Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) entered into an agreement to acquire Businesses and certain assets of Betta Milk and Meander Valley Dairy from TasFoods Limited (ASX:TFL) for AUD 11 million.

Bega Cheese Limited Declares Final Fully Franked Dividend, Payable on 21 September 2023

Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Consensus EPS estimates fall from profit to AU$0.63 loss

Charter Hall Group (ASX:CHC) agreed to acquire 1 Vegemite Way, Port Melbourne site of Bega Group from Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) for approximately AUD 120 million.

Charter Hall Group (ASX:CHC) agreed to acquire 1 Vegemite Way, Port Melbourne site of Bega Group from Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) for approximately AUD 120 million.

Price target decreased by 7.3% to AU$3.44

Now 20% undervalued

Now 21% undervalued

Bega Cheese Limited's (ASX:BGA) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 30% Above Its Share Price

Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 39%, revenue upgraded

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.024 (vs AU$0.093 in 1H 2022)

Bega Group Announces CEO Changes

Bega Cheese Limited Announces CEO Changes

Bega Cheese Limited Names Gunther Burghardt as Chief Financial Officer

Bega Cheese Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 26, 2022

Bega Cheese Limited Declares Fully Franked Ordinary Distribution for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2022, Payable on September 23, 2022

Does Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Insider recently bought AU$15m worth of stock

Price target decreased to AU$4.91

Bega Cheese Appoints Pete Findlay as Chief Operating Officer

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

Insider recently bought AU$15m worth of stock

Consensus forecasts updated

Insider recently bought AU$35m worth of stock

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18%

Bega Cheese's (ASX:BGA) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

First half 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Bega Cheese Limited Announces Fully Franked Dividend for Six Months Ended December 26, 2021, Payable on March 24, 2022

Is Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) Using Too Much Debt?

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

With EPS Growth And More, Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) Is Interesting

Consensus forecasts updated

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Insider recently bought AU$108m worth of stock

Estimating The Fair Value Of Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA)

Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$55k worth of stock

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.27 (vs AU$0.099 in FY 2020)

Consensus forecasts updated

Is Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) A Risky Investment?

Is Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) Trading At A 27% Discount?

Is Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) A Smart Pick For Income Investors?

Do Institutions Own Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) Shares?

Analysts update estimates

Price target raised to AU$6.32

Analysts lower EPS estimates to AU$0.013

Analysts Are Betting On Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) With A Big Upgrade This Week

First half 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.096 (vs AU$0.04 in 1H 2020)