How Much Did IOOF Holdings'(ASX:IFL) Shareholders Earn From Share Price Movements Over The Last Three Years?

If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But the long term shareholders of IOOF Holdings Ltd (ASX:IFL) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Unfortunately, they have held through a 66% decline in the share price in that time. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 52% lower in that time. But it's up 7.2% in the last week. The buoyant market could have helped drive the share price pop, since stocks are up 3.4% in the same period.

See our latest analysis for IOOF Holdings

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

IOOF Holdings became profitable within the last five years. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.

We note that the dividend has declined - a likely contributor to the share price drop. It doesn't seem like the changes in revenue would have impacted the share price much, but a closer inspection of the data might reveal something.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think IOOF Holdings will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of IOOF Holdings, it has a TSR of -59% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

IOOF Holdings shareholders are down 49% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 4.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 7% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for IOOF Holdings (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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