Despite the downward trend in earnings at Bell Financial Group (ASX:BFG) the stock pops 12%, bringing five-year gains to 106%

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the Bell Financial Group Limited (ASX:BFG) share price is up 48% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 25% (ignoring dividends).

Since the stock has added AU$47m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

See our latest analysis for Bell Financial Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Bell Financial Group actually saw its EPS drop 0.6% per year.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that the dividend has not increased, so that doesn't seem to explain the increase, either. The revenue decline of 2.1% wouldn't have helped. So it seems one might have to take closer look at earnings and revenue trends to see how they might influence the share price.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. If you are thinking of buying or selling Bell Financial Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Bell Financial Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 106%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Bell Financial Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 51% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 16%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Bell Financial Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Bell Financial Group that you should be aware of before investing here.

We will like Bell Financial Group better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.