The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX:TAH) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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What Is Tabcorp Holdings's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Tabcorp Holdings had debt of AU$418.7m at the end of December 2023, a reduction from AU$550.8m over a year. On the flip side, it has AU$313.4m in cash leading to net debt of about AU$105.3m.
How Healthy Is Tabcorp Holdings' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Tabcorp Holdings had liabilities of AU$629.8m due within a year, and liabilities of AU$582.3m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of AU$313.4m and AU$205.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling AU$693.1m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because Tabcorp Holdings is worth AU$1.42b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.57 and interest cover of 2.8 times, it seems to us that Tabcorp Holdings is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. We also note that Tabcorp Holdings improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive AU$66m. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Tabcorp Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, Tabcorp Holdings actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Tabcorp Holdings was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to cover its interest expense with its EBIT. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Tabcorp Holdings is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Tabcorp Holdings you should know about.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ASX:TAH
Tabcorp Holdings
Provides gambling and entertainment services in Australia.
Good value with moderate growth potential.