Stock Analysis

Strong week for Retail Food Group (ASX:RFG) shareholders doesn't alleviate pain of five-year loss

ASX:RFG
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Retail Food Group Limited (ASX:RFG) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 45% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. Five years have seen the share price descend precipitously, down a full 76%. It's true that the recent bounce could signal the company is turning over a new leaf, but we are not so sure. The real question is whether the business can leave its past behind and improve itself over the years ahead.

While the stock has risen 16% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

Check out our latest analysis for Retail Food Group

Given that Retail Food Group didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last five years Retail Food Group saw its revenue shrink by 17% per year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. So it's not that strange that the share price dropped 12% per year in that period. We don't think this is a particularly promising picture. Ironically, that behavior could create an opportunity for the contrarian investor - but only if there are good reasons to predict a brighter future.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:RFG Earnings and Revenue Growth December 23rd 2023

This free interactive report on Retail Food Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

Retail Food Group shareholders are down 6.6% for the year, but the market itself is up 9.7%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 12% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Retail Food Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

But note: Retail Food Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Retail Food Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.