GrainCorp Limited (ASX:GNC) Stock's Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Decent: Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The Future?

It is hard to get excited after looking at GrainCorp's (ASX:GNC) recent performance, when its stock has declined 4.3% over the past week. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Specifically, we decided to study GrainCorp's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for GrainCorp

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for GrainCorp is:

6.3% = AU$99m ÷ AU$1.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.06.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

GrainCorp's Earnings Growth And 6.3% ROE

On the face of it, GrainCorp's ROE is not much to talk about. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 11%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. In spite of this, GrainCorp was able to grow its net income considerably, at a rate of 49% in the last five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

We then compared GrainCorp's net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 13% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is GrainCorp fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is GrainCorp Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

GrainCorp's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 20%, which is quite low. This implies that the company is retaining 80% of its profits. So it looks like GrainCorp is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business, which shows in its earnings growth.

Additionally, GrainCorp has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 64% over the next three years. Despite the higher expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that GrainCorp certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Even in spite of the low rate of return, the company has posted impressive earnings growth as a result of reinvesting heavily into its business. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com