Are Globe International's (ASX:GLB) Statutory Earnings A Good Reflection Of Its Earnings Potential?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 08, 2020
ASX:GLB

As a general rule, we think profitable companies are less risky than companies that lose money. However, sometimes companies receive a one-off boost (or reduction) to their profit, and it's not always clear whether statutory profits are a good guide, going forward. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing Globe International (ASX:GLB).

While Globe International was able to generate revenue of AU$151.7m in the last twelve months, we think its profit result of AU$6.10m was more important. One positive is that it has grown both its profit and its revenue, over the last few years, though not in the last twelve months.

See our latest analysis for Globe International

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ASX:GLB Earnings and Revenue History November 8th 2020

Of course, when it comes to statutory profit, the devil is often in the detail, and we can get a better sense for a company by diving deeper into the financial statements. Therefore, we think it's worth taking a closer look at Globe International's cashflow, as well as examining the impact that unusual items have had on its reported profit. Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Globe International.

Zooming In On Globe International's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Globe International has an accrual ratio of -0.57 for the year to June 2020. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of AU$22m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of AU$6.10m. Notably, Globe International had negative free cash flow last year, so the AU$22m it produced this year was a welcome improvement. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Surprisingly, given Globe International's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by AU$3.6m in unusual items. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Globe International had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to June 2020. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On Globe International's Profit Performance

Globe International's profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. Given the contrasting considerations, we don't have a strong view as to whether Globe International's profits are an apt reflection of its underlying potential for profit. If you want to do dive deeper into Globe International, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. You'd be interested to know, that we found 4 warning signs for Globe International and you'll want to know about these bad boys.

Our examination of Globe International has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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