Atomos Limited's (ASX:AMS) Shares Climb 38% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Atomos Limited (ASX:AMS) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 38% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Atomos' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Australia's Consumer Durables industry is similar at about 0.7x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Atomos

What Does Atomos' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For example, consider that Atomos' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Atomos, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Atomos?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Atomos' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 27% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 13% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 7.0% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Atomos' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Atomos' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We find it unexpected that Atomos trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Atomos (at least 3 which shouldn't be ignored), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com