Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for WBAG:ADSK using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
WBAG:ADSK DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Autodesk's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a moderate discount (< 20%).
Autodesk's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Autodesk's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Autodesk's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Autodesk's revenue is expected to grow by 18.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Autodesk's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Dr. Andrew Anagnost has been Chief Executive Officer and President at Autodesk, Inc. since June 19, 2017. Dr. Anagnost served as Senior Vice President of Industry Strategy & Marketing at Autodesk Limited. Dr. Anagnost served as Senior Vice President of Business Strategy and Marketing at Autodesk, Inc. since March 2012 and served as its Chief Marketing Officer and Interim Co-Chief Executive Officer from February 8, 2017 to June 19, 2017. He was responsible for overall marketing direction and resources including the Autodesk's vertical and cross-industry strategy and marketing, business model transformation and evolution. He has more than 20 years of product, business and marketing experience that he has to leadership of Industry Strategy and Marketing (ISM) for Autodesk. Prior to this role, Dr. Anagnost served as Vice President of Product Suites, Web Services & Subscription (SWSS) organization where he drove strategy and business development for the Design Suite Family and the Subscription offering. He was responsible for defining the business model that is helping to transform Autodesk from a desktop software provider to a hybrid desktop and online solutions provider. Dr. Anagnost began his career at Autodesk as Partners Program Manager in 1997. During the six years that followed, Dr. Anagnost served as Director of New Business Development and Director of Product Management. He served as Senior Director of Marketing at Autodesk, Inc. since 2003 and promoted to Senior Director of CAD, CAE and ETO products. In 2007, he was named Vice President of CAD/CAE products for the manufacturing division. Prior to joining Autodesk, He was employed at Lockheed Aeronautical Systems Company as a composite structures engineer and later worked as a propulsion installation engineer. After leaving Lockheed, he completed a Doctorate degree at Stanford University and spent several years under contract with NASA and as a NRC post-doctoral fellow. After his fellowship, Dr. Anagnost held positions in sales, marketing and product management for the ventured funded simulation vendor EXA Corporation. He has been a Director at Autodesk, Inc. since June 19, 2017. Dr. Anagnost holds a BS in Mechanical Engineering from the California State University and holds both an MS in Engineering Science and a PhD in Aeronautical Engineering and Computer Science from Stanford University.
Andrew's compensation has increased whilst company is loss making.
Insufficient data for Andrew to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in .
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Autodesk management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
Senior VP & CFO
Pascal Di Fronzo
Senior VP of Corporate Affairs
Senior Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations
Senior Vice President of Global Customer Support & Operations
Chief Technology Officer
Head of Investor Relations
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Autodesk board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Autodesk, Inc. operates as a design software and services company worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD, a professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization software; AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering, including land development, transportation, and environmental projects; AutoCAD LT, a professional drafting and detailing software; BIM 360, a construction management cloud-based software; computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modelling for manufacturing; Fusion 360, a 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering tool; and Industry Collections software products for professionals in architecture, engineering and construction, product design and manufacturing, and media and entertainment industries. It also provides Inventor tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; Maya and 3ds Max software products that offer 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions; and PlanGrid, a cloud-based field collaboration software, which provides general contractors, subcontractors, owners, and architects access to construction information in real-time. In addition, the company offers Revit software for building information modeling; and Shotgun, a cloud-based software for review and production tracking in the media and entertainment industry. Autodesk, Inc. sells its products and services to customers directly, as well as through distributors and resellers. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.
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