Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for WBAG:BIIB using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
WBAG:BIIB DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Biogen's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Biogen's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Biogen's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Biogen's earnings are expected to grow by 3.3% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Biogen's revenue is expected to grow by 0.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Biogen's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
5/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Michel Vounatsos has been the Chief Executive Officer of Biogen Inc. since January 6, 2017. Mr. Vounatsos served as the Chief Commercial Officer and Executive Vice President of Biogen Inc. since April 18, 2016 until December 2016. He is a sophisticated global business leader who has a track record of commercial success and creativity. He joined Biogen after a 20 year career at Merck, where he various positions including served as president, Primary Care Business Line and Merck Customer Centricity. Prior to this role, he held leadership positions at Merck across Europe and in China. He has been Director of Biogen Inc. since January 6, 2017. Prior to that, Mr. Vounatsos held management positions at Ciba-Geigy. Mr. Vounatsos attended the Universite Victor Segalen, Bordeaux II, in France, receiving his C.S.C.T. certificate in Medicine. He received his M.B.A. from the HEC School of Management in Paris.
Michel's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.
Insufficient data for Michel to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in .
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Biogen management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
CEO & Director
Executive VP & CFO
Executive VP and Head of Research & Development
Executive Vice President of Pharmaceutical Operations & Technology
VP & Chief Accounting Officer
Senior VP & Chief Information Officer
Senior Director of Investor Relations
Executive VP and Head of Global Marketing
Executive Vice President of Corporate Development
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Biogen board of directors is about average.
Biogen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers therapies for treating neurological and neurodegenerative diseases worldwide. The company offers TECFIDERA, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, and FAMPYRA for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS); SPINRAZA for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy; and FUMADERM for the treatment of plaque psoriasis. It also provides BENEPALI, an etanercept biosimilar referencing ENBREL; FLIXABI, an infliximab biosimilar referencing REMICADE; and IMRALDI, an adalimumab biosimilar referencing HUMIRA. In addition, the company offers RITUXAN for the treatment of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), rheumatoid arthritis, two forms of ANCA-associated vasculitis, and pemphigus vulgaris; RITUXAN HYCELA for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and CLL; GAZYVA to treat CLL and follicular lymphoma; and OCREVUS for the treatment of primary progressive MS and relapsing MS, and other anti-CD20 therapies. Further, it is involved in developing BIIB098, Opicinumab, and BIIB061 for MS and neuroimmunology; Aducanumab, Elenbecestat, BAN2401, BIIB092, BIIB076, and BIIB080 to treat Alzheimer's disease and dementia; BIIB092 and BIIB054 for treating Parkinson's disease and movement disorders; BIIB067, BIIB078, and BIIB110 to treat neuromuscular disorders; BIIB093, TMS-007, and Natalizumab to treat acute neurology; BIIB104 for treating neurocognitive disorders; BIIB074 and BIIB095 for pain; and Dapirolzumab pegol, BG00011, and BIIB059 for treating other diseases, which are under various stages of development. The company offers products through its sales force and marketing groups. Biogen Inc. has collaboration agreements with Genentech, Inc., Eisai Co., Ltd., Alkermes Pharma Ireland Limited, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Acorda Therapeutics, Inc., AbbVie Inc., C4 Therapeutics, University of Pennsylvania, Applied Genetic Technologies Corporation, and others. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
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