Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 11
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to US$89.76, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 42x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 166% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at US$137 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • May 22
Chief Human Resources Officer recently sold US$356k worth of stock On the 19th of May, Christina Polychroni sold around 5k shares on-market at roughly US$79.21 per share. This transaction amounted to 15% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth US$9.8m. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$14m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • May 20
Chief Human Resources Officer notifies of intention to sell stock Christina Polychroni intends to sell 5k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 19th of May. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$79.10, it would amount to US$356k. Since March 2026, Christina has owned 24.13k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$18m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • May 07
Founder recently sold US$9.8m worth of stock On the 5th of May, Christopher Pappas sold around 125k shares on-market at roughly US$78.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 5.3% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Christopher's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Aankondiging • May 02
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2026 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the full year 2026. For the year, the company expects Net sales in the range of $4.35 billion to $4.45 billion. The company also expects unaudited net income to be in the range of $88,000,000 to $92,000,000. Price Target Changed • May 01
Price target increased by 10% to US$84.88 Up from US$77.13, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 7.7% above last closing price of US$78.83. Stock is up 32% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.08 for next year compared to US$1.87 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: US$0.45 (up from US$0.27 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$1.06b (up 11% from 1Q 2025). Net income: US$17.4m (up 69% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.6% (up from 1.1% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 60%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 32% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 29
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to US$75.70, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 37x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 122% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at US$126 per share. Aankondiging • Apr 15
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 29, 2026 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results Pre-Market on Apr 29, 2026 Aankondiging • Mar 26
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2026 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2026. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 06
Gen. Counsel recently sold US$2.1m worth of stock On the 27th of February, Alexandros Aldous sold around 30k shares on-market at roughly US$71.22 per share. This transaction amounted to 29% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$9.3m more than they bought in the last 12 months. New Risk • Feb 12
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 17% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Aankondiging • Jan 28
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 11, 2026 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results Pre-Market on Feb 11, 2026 Aankondiging • Jan 13
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Preliminary Unaudited Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2026 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided preliminary unaudited earnings guidance for the fiscal year 2026. For the year, the company expects net sales to be in the range of $4.35 billion and $4.45 billion. Net income to be between $88.0 million to $92.0 million. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 06
CFO & Assistant Secretary recently sold US$1.4m worth of stock On the 4th of November, James Leddy sold around 22k shares on-market at roughly US$62.11 per share. This transaction amounted to 15% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. James has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by US$1.8m. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Nov 05
CFO & Assistant Secretary notifies of intention to sell stock James Leddy intends to sell 22k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 4th of November. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$62.10, it would amount to US$1.4m. Since December 2024, James' direct individual holding has increased from 145.59k shares to 195.16k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$19m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.50 (up from US$0.37 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$1.02b (up 9.6% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$19.1m (up 36% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 1.9% (up from 1.5% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 38% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 17% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Oct 30
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 18% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Aankondiging • Oct 29
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Raises Earnings Guidance for the Full Fiscal Year 2025 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. raised earnings guidance for the full fiscal year 2025. For the year, the company expected net sales in the range of $4.085 billion to $4.115 billion, net income of $75,500,000 to $77,500,000. Aankondiging • Oct 15
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 29, 2025 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results Pre-Market on Oct 29, 2025 Reported Earnings • Jul 31
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.55 (up from US$0.41 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$1.03b (up 8.4% from 2Q 2024). Net income: US$21.2m (up 37% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.1% (up from 1.6% in 2Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 8.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 33% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 25% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Jul 31
Price target increased by 9.2% to US$78.00 Up from US$71.43, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 14% above last closing price of US$68.56. Stock is up 69% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.69 for next year compared to US$1.46 last year. Aankondiging • Jul 30
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Full Year 2025 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the fiscal full year 2025. For the year, the company expects net sales in the range of $4.0 billion to $4.06 billion and gross profit to be between $964 million and $979 million. Aankondiging • Jul 16
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 30, 2025 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results Pre-Market on Jul 30, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jul 15
Chief Accounting Officer notifies of intention to sell stock Timothy McCauley intends to sell 25k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 14th of July. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$65.76, it would amount to US$1.6m. Since March 2025, Timothy has owned 69.20k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$19m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • May 01
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.27 (up from US$0.051 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$950.7m (up 8.7% from 1Q 2024). Net income: US$10.3m (up 433% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 1.1% (up from 0.2% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 34%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.8% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 33% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 17% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Aankondiging • Apr 30
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Full Year 2025 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the fiscal full year 2025. For the year, the company expects net sales in the range of $3.96 billion to $4.04 billion and Gross profit to be between $954 million and $976 million. Aankondiging • Apr 16
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 30, 2025 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results at 9:30 AM, US Eastern Standard Time on Apr 30, 2025 Aankondiging • Mar 27
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 09, 2025 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 09, 2025. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 11
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to US$52.70, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 32x. Average forward P/E is 21x in the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 84% over the past three years. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Mar 09
Founder notifies of intention to sell stock John Pappas intends to sell 100k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 7th of March. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$59.07, it would amount to US$5.9m. Since March 2024, John's direct individual holding has decreased from 1.40m shares to 1.25m. Company insiders have collectively sold US$13m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 05
Gen. Counsel recently sold US$1.8m worth of stock On the 28th of February, Alexandros Aldous sold around 30k shares on-market at roughly US$60.71 per share. This transaction amounted to 24% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth US$9.8m. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$12m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Mar 02
Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock Joseph Cugine intends to sell 20k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 28th of February. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$62.58, it would amount to US$1.3m. Since March 2024, Joseph's direct individual holding has increased from 40.83k shares to 44.22k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$10.0m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 19
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22% After last week's 22% share price gain to US$66.35, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 40x. Average forward P/E is 25x in the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 107% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at US$120 per share. Price Target Changed • Feb 13
Price target increased by 18% to US$66.63 Up from US$56.50, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 5.5% above last closing price of US$63.18. Stock is up 82% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.65 for next year compared to US$1.46 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 13
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$1.46 (up from US$0.92 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$3.79b (up 11% from FY 2023). Net income: US$55.5m (up 60% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 1.5% (up from 1.0% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 5.9%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Aankondiging • Jan 29
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 12, 2025 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results Pre-Market on Feb 12, 2025 Aankondiging • Jan 14
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Preliminary Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2025 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided preliminary earnings guidance for the fiscal year 2025. For the year, the company expects Net sales in the range of $3.94 billion and $4.04 billion. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 15
Founder recently sold US$9.8m worth of stock On the 11th of December, Christopher Pappas sold around 200k shares on-market at roughly US$48.85 per share. This transaction amounted to 7.4% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Christopher's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Dec 12
Founder notifies of intention to sell stock Christopher Pappas intends to sell 200k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 11th of December. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$47.74, it would amount to US$9.5m. For the year to December 2017, Christopher's total compensation was 20% salary and 80% other compensation. This indicates that these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year. Since March 2024, Christopher has owned 2.88m shares directly. There have been no trades via on-market transactions or options from company insiders in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Nov 24
Gen. Counsel notifies of intention to sell stock Alexandros Aldous intends to sell 5k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 22nd of November. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$45.00, it would amount to US$225k. Since March 2024, Alexandros' direct individual holding has decreased from 182.37k shares to 119.34k. There have been no trades via on-market transactions or options from company insiders in the last 12 months. Aankondiging • Nov 02
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2024 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the full year 2024. For the year, the company expects Net sales in the range of $3.710 billion to $3.775 billion. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.37 (up from US$0.19 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$931.5m (up 5.6% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$14.1m (up 93% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.5% (up from 0.8% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 5.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 63% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Aankondiging • Oct 16
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 30, 2024 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results Pre-Market on Oct 30, 2024 Reported Earnings • Aug 01
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.41 (up from US$0.26 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$954.7m (up 8.3% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$15.5m (up 57% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.6% (up from 1.1% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 85% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Aankondiging • Jul 31
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Unaudited Earnings Guidance for the Full Year of 2024 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided unaudited earnings guidance for the full year of 2024. For the year, the company expects net sales to be in the range of $3.665 billion to $3.785 billion. Net income to be in the range of $0.051 million to $0.053 million. Aankondiging • Jul 17
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 31, 2024 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results Pre-Market on Jul 31, 2024 Aankondiging • May 03
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for Full Year 2024 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided earnings guidance for full year 2024. For the year, The company expects net sales in the range of $3.640 billion to $3.785 billion and net income in the range of $50,700,000 to $53,500,000. Aankondiging • Apr 19
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 01, 2024 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results Pre-Market on May 01, 2024 Aankondiging • Mar 28
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 10, 2024 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 10, 2024, at 10:00 Eastern Daylight. Agenda: To elect Ivy Brown, Joseph Cugine, Steven F. Goldstone, Aylwin Lewis, Katherine Oliver, Lester Owens, Christopher Pappas, John Pappas, Richard N. Peretz, Debra Walton-Ruskin and Wendy M. Weinstein as directors to hold office until the next annual meeting of stockholders and until their respective successors are elected and qualified; to ratify the selection of BDO USA, P.C. as our independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 27, 2024; to approve, on a non-binding, advisory basis, the compensation of the Company's named executive officers; to vote, on a non-binding, advisory basis, on the frequency (once every one year, two years or three years) of future non-binding, advisory votes on the compensation of the Company's named executive officers; and to transact such other business as may properly come before the Annual Meeting or any adjournments or postponements of the Annual Meeting. Aankondiging • Feb 15
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Sales Guidance for the Year 2024 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided sales guidance for the year 2024. For the year, the company expects Net sales in the range of $3.625 billion to $3.775 billion. Aankondiging • Feb 01
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 14, 2024 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results Pre-Market on Feb 14, 2024 Aankondiging • Oct 19
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 01, 2023 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results Pre-Market on Nov 01, 2023 Aankondiging • Aug 03
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2023 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the full year 2023. For the period, the company estimated net sales to be in the range of $3.25 billion to $3.35 billion. The company expects net income in the range of $46,700,000 to $50,400,000. Aankondiging • May 04
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for Full Year 2023 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided earnings guidance for full year 2023. For the period, The company expects net sales for the full year of 2023 will be in the range of $3.20 billion to $3.30 billion. Aankondiging • Feb 16
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2023 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the full year 2023. For the year, the company estimated net sales to be in the range of $2.85 billion to $2.95 billion and Gross profit to be between $684.0 million to $708.0 million. Aankondiging • Jan 26
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 15, 2023 The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results at 9:30 AM, US Eastern Standard Time on Feb 15, 2023 Reported Earnings • Oct 26
Third quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.22 (up from US$0.094 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$661.9m (up 37% from 3Q 2021). Net income: US$8.28m (up 140% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 1.3% (up from 0.7% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 25%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Seeking Alpha • Oct 10
Chefs' Warehouse: Eyeing Up A Long Entry (Technical Analysis) Summary
Solid trends in play in this stock concerning top line sales and margin growth.
Book value also continues to grow.
We now have a low-risk setup, as shares continue to trade very close to their September lows but have also turned the 10-day moving average upward.
Intro
We may have a low-risk long entry in The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF), as shown in the stock's technical chart below. Shares recently gave a buy signal using a bullish crossover of the MACD indicator, resulting in the share price moving above its 10-day moving average. Furthermore, the 10-day moving average has also turned up so it will be interesting to see if the lows of approximately $29 a share printed on the 26th of September last can hold here in the short term. These September lows are about 5% below Chef´s current share price ($30.61).
The downcycle trendline which coincides with the stock´s 200-day moving average provides meaningful overhead resistance at least in the short term. However, if profitability remains strong and keeps growing significantly in CHEF, then it should only be a matter of time before that overhead resistance is taken out.
Potential Bottom in CHEF (Stockcharts.com)
Q2 Earnings
We state this because we witnessed plenty of encouraging signs in the company´s second-quarter earnings report which was announced at the back end of July. CHEF beat earnings (EPS of $0.51) and revenue ($648.1 million) expectations by quite some distance as consumer demand remained buoyant in the quarter. Gross margin came in higher in the quarter, with strength in the center of plate category superseding the specialty category. Suffice it to say, sales growth (53%+) is not only acquisition-based but also is being organically led (36% Organic growth in Q2). Moreover rising gross margins have the capacity to increase earnings significantly going forward and that is what consensus seems to be pricing in.
In fact, management announced a further raise in guidance on the second quarter earnings call, where top-line sales of approximately $2.425 billion are expected to return $564 million in gross profit. If realized, this would result in Chef's gross margin returning sooner rather than later, returning to its 5-year average gross margin print of approximately 24%.
Bullish Growth Trends
Suffice it to say, CHEF's growth trends are making themselves known in the financials. Cash flow is expected to grow in the firm as recent elevated Capex spending (331% year-over-year growth) drives the balance sheet forward. Book value increased by close to $20 million in the second quarter ($373.7 million), which means this metric has increased by over $40 million (12%) over the same quarter of 12 months prior. Furthermore, the company's increasing net worth is not being achieved through lower liquidity numbers. Liquidity surpassed $210 million in the second quarter, of which almost $52 million is made up of the balance sheet cash balance. CHEF's current ratio came in at 2.07 at the end of the company's second quarter (June 2022).
Valuation
From a valuation standpoint, it is evident that CHEF's earnings are not cheap, but we would advise investors to look more at the company's rising book value (trailing price to book ratio of 3.13) and in particular the company's rising sales. (Forward sales multiple of 0.48). Although the low sales multiple comes as a consequence of the added sales from the various acquisitions (University Foods, Master purveyors & Alexa Specialty Foods), we believe the market is underestimating the synergies and margin expansion that is going to come off these and future deals. We are already seeing the ramifications of this with respect to how forward-looking earnings expectations have been revised upward in recent times. Suffice it to say, if these trends persist, it will be sooner rather than later before that overhead resistance on the technical chart gets breached to the upside. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to US$29.21, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Consumer Retailing industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 27% over the past three years.