Why Bankia, S.A. (BME:BKIA) Could Be Worth Watching

Bankia, S.A. (BME:BKIA), operating in the financial services industry based in Spain, saw significant share price movement during recent months on the BME, rising to highs of €1.73 and falling to the lows of €0.89. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Bankia's current trading price of €0.97 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Bankia’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

Check out our latest analysis for Bankia

Is Bankia still cheap?

The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 6.1x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 6.3x, which means if you buy Bankia today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Bankia should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Bankia’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What does the future of Bankia look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a negative profit growth of -17% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Bankia. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Currently, BKIA appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on BKIA, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on BKIA for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on BKIA should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Bankia. You can find everything you need to know about Bankia in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Bankia, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.