Is BSL (NSE:BSL) Set To Make A Turnaround?

To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. In light of that, from a first glance at BSL (NSE:BSL), we've spotted some signs that it could be struggling, so let's investigate.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What is it?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on BSL is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.11 = ₹111m ÷ (₹3.2b - ₹2.1b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

Thus, BSL has an ROCE of 11%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Luxury industry average of 8.6% it's much better.

Check out our latest analysis for BSL

Historical performance is a great place to start when researching a stock so above you can see the gauge for BSL's ROCE against it's prior returns. If you want to delve into the historical earnings, revenue and cash flow of BSL, check out these free graphs here.

What Can We Tell From BSL's ROCE Trend?

There is reason to be cautious about BSL, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 18%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on BSL becoming one if things continue as they have.

While on the subject, we noticed that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 67%, which has impacted the ROCE. If current liabilities hadn't increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. And with current liabilities at these levels, suppliers or short-term creditors are effectively funding a large part of the business, which can introduce some risks.

The Bottom Line On BSL's ROCE

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Investors haven't taken kindly to these developments, since the stock has declined 44% from where it was five years ago. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

BSL does come with some risks though, we found 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 3 of those are significant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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