Stock Analysis

ICRA (NSE:ICRA) Share Prices Have Dropped 28% In The Last Five Years

NSEI:ICRA
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While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the ICRA Limited (NSE:ICRA) share price up 13% in a single quarter. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. In fact, the share price is down 28%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

View our latest analysis for ICRA

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, ICRA actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 8.4% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

The modest 1.0% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. The revenue fall of 0.8% per year for five years is neither good nor terrible. But it's quite possible the market had expected better; a closer look at the revenue trends might explain the pessimism.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NSEI:ICRA Earnings and Revenue Growth August 26th 2020

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for ICRA the TSR over the last 5 years was -26%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

ICRA shareholders are up 4.6% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 4.8% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand ICRA better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for ICRA you should know about.

But note: ICRA may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.

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