Stock Analysis

City Holding's (NASDAQ:CHCO) three-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

NasdaqGS:CHCO
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By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, the City Holding Company (NASDAQ:CHCO) share price is up 27% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 11% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 13% in the last year , including dividends .

Although City Holding has shed US$57m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

Check out our latest analysis for City Holding

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During three years of share price growth, City Holding achieved compound earnings per share growth of 11% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 8% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:CHCO Earnings Per Share Growth April 17th 2024

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, City Holding's TSR for the last 3 years was 39%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

City Holding provided a TSR of 13% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 8% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand City Holding better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for City Holding (1 shouldn't be ignored) that you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether City Holding is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.