Last Update 23 Mar 26

TRUE B: Global Ad Reseller Deals And Buybacks Will Support Future Rerating

Analysts now anchor their Truecaller view around a SEK 15.0 price target. The change in stance reflects mixed rating actions but broadly consistent assumptions on fair value, discount rate and future P/E multiples.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the SEK 15 price target as a reasonable anchor, suggesting the current valuation is aligned with their assumptions on earnings power and P/E multiples.
The upgrade signals confidence that management can execute on its plan well enough to justify a SEK 15 fair value over time, even with mixed opinions in the broader analyst group.
Supporters point to a balance between growth expectations and risk, arguing that the current share price leaves room for upside if the company delivers in line with their models.
Some bullish views reflect a belief that prior caution is already reflected in the share price, giving more comfortable entry levels relative to the SEK 15 target.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts, reflected in the downgrade to Hold, highlight that at around a SEK 15 fair value, the upside from current levels appears more limited on their estimates.
Cautious views often center on execution risk, with concerns that any slip in growth or profitability could make the SEK 15 target harder to justify on current P/E assumptions.
Some see a more balanced risk or reward profile, preferring to wait for either a lower entry price or clearer evidence that the business can consistently support the implied valuation.
The mix of ratings suggests that, while the SEK 15 target is widely used, not all analysts are convinced that the company’s near term progress will be enough to merit a more aggressive stance.

What's in the News

Truecaller signed three exclusive reseller agreements for Truecaller Ads with 365 Digital in South Africa and Kenya, AnyMind Group in Ghana, Nigeria, MENA and Southeast Asia, and Integrated Media Tech in India, expanding its international direct sales reach across key advertising regions (Key Developments).
The new reseller partnerships are intended to increase local sales execution capacity in Africa, MENA and Southeast Asia and to broaden access to regional and mid sized advertisers in India by extending coverage beyond metro areas (Key Developments).
From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Truecaller repurchased 5,068,553 shares for SEK 107 million, representing 1.48% of shares, completing a total buyback of 6,891,053 shares for SEK 197.06 million, or 2.01%, under the program announced on May 30, 2025 (Key Developments).
The board plans to propose a dividend of SEK 0.28 per share for the December 2025 financial year to the annual general meeting, in line with the company’s dividend policy (Key Developments).
Preliminary and unaudited guidance for Q4 2025 points to total net sales of SEK 451 million compared with SEK 523 million in the same quarter a year earlier, total revenues of SEK 462.4 million compared with SEK 528.5 million, and net profit of SEK 60.4 million compared with SEK 150.4 million (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: SEK 36.0 is unchanged, with the target level kept consistent in the latest update.
Discount Rate: 6.71% has edged slightly lower to 6.71%, indicating a very small adjustment in the required return used in the model.
Revenue Growth: 8.93% is effectively unchanged, with the latest figure remaining aligned with the prior assumption.
Net Profit Margin: 23.10% is essentially stable, with only a minimal technical adjustment in the updated input.
Future P/E: 25.73x is now 25.72x, showing a marginal recalibration of the multiple applied to projected earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Strong expansion in emerging markets and increased demand for security features are driving robust user growth and subscription uptake, boosting recurring revenue and profitability.
Diversified revenue streams from B2B services and proprietary ad tech improve margin stability, reduce reliance on ads, and support long-term profit growth through network effects.
Heavy dependence on foreign ad revenues and third-party platforms leaves the company vulnerable to currency risk, market maturity, and unpredictable shifts in advertiser demand and tax rates.

Catalysts

About Truecaller

Develops and publishes mobile caller ID applications for individuals and business in India, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The rapid expansion of smartphone and mobile internet adoption in emerging markets, especially outside India (e.g., Middle East and Africa), is unlocking strong user growth (15% YoY in Q2) and providing a larger addressable market for Truecaller's services, thereby supporting long-term recurring revenue and earnings growth.
Heightened concerns about digital security and fraud are driving greater demand for Truecaller's advanced spam/fraud call detection solutions, which, combined with the company's scale and improved AI capabilities, are reinforcing the value proposition, supporting premium subscription uptake and higher ARPU (Average Revenue Per User), positively impacting both top-line and margin expansion.
The ongoing pivot towards higher-margin, recurring subscription revenue-with notable acceleration on iOS (25% QoQ subscriber growth/50% YoY)-and expansion of B2B offerings (Truecaller for Business, identity APIs) are diversifying revenue streams, lowering reliance on cyclical ad spend, and creating more stable, predictable cash flows and long-term profit growth.
Strategic developments in proprietary ad tech (launch of premium ad formats like Masthead and Play, and growth in direct ad sales) are improving gross margins and deepening integration with advertisers, positioning the business to capture a greater share of ad wallet as digital communication further penetrates emerging markets, with positive implications for net margins.
Truecaller's dominant market share, strong brand recognition, and community-powered data advantages reinforce network effects in high-growth regions, contributing to low churn and reduced marketing costs, further improving net margin stability and supporting robust long-term earnings power.

Truecaller Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Truecaller's revenue will grow by 8.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 19.9% today to 23.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach SEK 581.5 million (and earnings per share of SEK 1.41) by about March 2029, up from SEK 388.6 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting SEK975.4 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting SEK286.9 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.8x on those 2029 earnings, up from 9.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the SE Software industry at 23.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.71%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Truecaller's heavy reliance on foreign (mainly India) revenues exposes it to significant FX risk against the strengthening Swedish krona, which can materially reduce reported revenue and profit growth when translated to SEK, negatively impacting overall earnings and perceived growth.
The majority of ad revenues (85%-90%) are generated through third-party programmatic platforms, making the business vulnerable to external macro factors, softening advertiser demand (e.g., geopolitical conflicts like India-Pakistan tensions), and market-wide CPM stagnation, which can lead to revenue and margin volatility.
While direct ad sales and Truecaller for Business segments are growing, both contribute only a minor share of total revenue (direct ad sales at ~10-15%), so financial performance remains highly sensitive to fluctuations and saturation in the programmatic advertising market, limiting EPS upside if these high-margin streams do not scale fast enough.
With increasing revenue being recognized in India, a market with a higher (35%) corporate tax rate relative to Sweden (21%), the company's effective tax rate is expected to trend upward over time, reducing net profit margins as a greater share of future profit growth is taxed more heavily.
Despite product innovations, the text notes that DAU and user growth do not automatically translate to proportional ad impression or monetizable opportunity growth, indicating possible signs of market maturity or ad load saturation, which could constrain revenue-per-user expansion and overall top-line growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of SEK36.0 for Truecaller based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of SEK68.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just SEK15.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be SEK2.5 billion, earnings will come to SEK581.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.7%.
Given the current share price of SEK10.68, the analyst price target of SEK36.0 is 70.3% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Product Expansion And User Engagement Will Drive Stronger Results Ahead