Last Update 06 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 33%

CTEV: Entrenched Payer Position And Deleveraging Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Claritev to $57.25 from $85, citing updated Street price targets in the $33 to $63 range and reduced future P/E assumptions, while also acknowledging steady revenue growth and margin expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish and cautious views on Claritev are both in play, and that split is driving a wide range of price targets and valuation opinions.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts still see upside potential at current levels, even with a trimmed top price target of $63. This sits above the updated fair value estimate of $57.25.
They point to Claritev's role as an entrenched vendor to payers as a key support for execution and revenue stability.
Some are cautiously optimistic about the broader health tech group looking ahead to 2026. They view this as a backdrop that could help Claritev's growth story if the company executes on expectations.
The use of a Buy rating alongside reduced targets suggests enthusiasm for the business model, while acknowledging a need for more conservative assumptions on future P/E.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are anchoring to the lower end of the range, with a $33 target that sits well below both the updated fair value estimate and the high end of Street targets.
They highlight Claritev's elevated leverage, which they view as a constraint on valuation and a risk factor if execution or cash generation falls short of expectations.
The broader health tech group has seen a meaningful share of names down 25% or more. This keeps some analysts cautious on how much multiple expansion they are willing to underwrite for Claritev.
An Equal Weight stance reflects a view that, at current levels, the stock may be fairly priced relative to its leverage and perceived risk, rather than offering a clear margin of safety.

What's in the News

Claritev announced a relationship with Kinetiq Health that integrates Kinetiq Health's services into the BenInsights analytics platform, adding monthly medical and pharmacy claims surveillance, risk stratification, intervention support, and access to a SecondOpinion Program for complex cases (Key Developments).
The combined Claritev and Kinetiq Health offering is aimed at earlier identification of high cost medical and pharmacy risk, greater diagnostic confidence through expert second opinions, and data driven cost management across claims, prescription drug spending, PBM negotiations, renewals, and benefit plan design (Key Developments).
Claritev completed a follow on equity offering of 1,500,000 Class A common stock at a price of $51.50 per share, raising approximately $77.25 million, with a stated discount of $2.8325 per share (Key Developments).
Claritev filed for a follow on equity offering of 1,500,000 Class A common stock, in connection with the completed offering (Key Developments).
Lock up agreements are in place through 12 January 2026 covering 16,509,496 Class A common stock, 2,227,616 restricted stock units, and 175,767 options, with directors, executive officers, and selling securityholders agreeing not to sell or transfer these securities or related derivatives during the lock up period without underwriter consent (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate was reduced from $85.00 to $57.25, reflecting a sizable cut in the valuation anchor used in the analysis.
The Discount Rate was adjusted slightly from 12.5% to 12.33%, indicating only a small shift in the required return assumption.
Revenue Growth moved modestly from 4.21% to 4.28%, leaving the growth outlook effectively unchanged in practical terms.
The Net Profit Margin was held essentially flat at about 6.93%, with only a rounding-level change between the prior and updated figures.
The Future P/E was reduced from 27.59x to 18.46x, marking a significant reset in the multiple applied to Claritev's expected earnings.

Accelerated AI adoption, cloud migration, and automation initiatives enhance product development, operational efficiency, and margin stability, supporting long-term cash flow and reinvestment potential.
Expansion into international and emerging markets, along with strong client renewals and strategic partnerships, underpins sustainable revenue growth and broadens Claritev's market reach.
Overdependence on core clients, limited geographic reach, and rising digital competition threaten revenue stability, margin health, and long-term growth amid evolving healthcare and regulatory trends.

Catalysts

About Claritev

Provides data analytics and technology-enabled cost management, payment, and revenue integrity solutions to the healthcare industry in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Strong acceleration in digital transformation and advanced AI adoption-including migration to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, a new Chief AI Officer, and a dozen predictive AI initiatives-will significantly enhance product development speed and operational efficiency, increasing both future revenue growth and operating margins.
International expansion, particularly recent entry into the Middle East and North Africa through agreements with Burjeel Holdings, creates new healthcare end-markets for Claritev's solutions, supporting long-term, sustainable revenue and earnings growth as emerging markets drive demand for diagnostics and cost management.
Renewed focus and multi-year renewals with major core clients, alongside strategic partnerships with organizations like Echo, Lantern, Oracle, and athenahealth, provide higher visibility, stable recurring revenue streams, and improved customer retention, which should underpin stronger long-term cash flows and margin stability.
Secular demographic and policy shifts-such as the aging global population and increasing healthcare access in emerging countries-are expanding the total addressable market for Claritev's diagnostics and transparency solutions, providing a multi-year runway for top-line revenue expansion.
Automation, streamlining, and facility reductions create operational leverage, demonstrated by delivering higher revenues with lower headcount and positioning the company to achieve 10–15% cost reductions and improved free cash flow generation, which will support both margins and reinvestment in growth initiatives.

Claritev Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Claritev's revenue will grow by 3.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Claritev will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Claritev's profit margin will increase from -70.9% to the average US Healthcare Services industry of 8.8% in 3 years.
If Claritev's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $90.0 million (and earnings per share of $5.29) by about September 2028, up from $-663.4 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $-196.8 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -1.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Healthcare Services industry at 54.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.88% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.32%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Claritev Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Claritev's core revenue base remains heavily concentrated in existing payor and TPA clients, with more than 90% of the business tied to these relationships; any renegotiation, loss of major contracts, or changes in client strategy could drive significant revenue declines and increase earnings volatility.
While Claritev is heavily investing in digital transformation, AI, and new technology, ongoing cost pressures-including investment in talent, product development, and cloud infrastructure-may erode net margins over time if revenue growth or product adoption underdelivers relative to these expenses.
Despite early international expansion and partnerships (e.g., Middle East, Oracle, athenahealth), Claritev's long-term financial growth is still highly dependent on successful execution outside of its core US markets; failure to achieve meaningful geographic diversification could leave the company overexposed to adverse domestic regulatory or economic trends, dampening future revenue growth.
The healthcare industry's accelerating digital transformation and competition from technology-focused entrants, including large tech companies embracing AI-driven healthcare solutions, may result in commoditization, eroding Claritev's market share and pricing power, ultimately impacting revenue and profitability.
Potential government cost-containment efforts, evolving reimbursement models, and tightening healthcare budgets could restrict the willingness or ability of clients to invest in Claritev's solutions, exerting downward pressure on both revenue and net margins in the face of secular cost control trends.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $70.5 for Claritev based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $86.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $55.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.0 billion, earnings will come to $90.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.3%.
Given the current share price of $68.38, the analyst price target of $70.5 is 3.0% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Boost Claritev Valuation Amid Growth Optimism and Strategic Developments