Last Update 19 Jan 26

Fair value Decreased 0.46%

STMN: Improving U.S. Execution And Orthodontics Partnerships Will Support Renewed Optimism

Straumann Holding's analyst fair value estimate has edged down by roughly CHF 1 to about CHF 111, as analysts balance slightly softer margin and P/E assumptions with mixed recent Street price target revisions and generally improved sentiment since the Q3 report.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research around Straumann has turned more mixed, with some bullish analysts leaning into improving sentiment after the Q3 report, while more cautious voices focus on valuation risk and execution consistency.

Bullish Takeaways

Recent upgrades to Neutral and Buy, along with price targets clustered around CHF 102 to CHF 122, point to a group of bullish analysts who see the current valuation as more balanced relative to Straumann's execution and growth prospects.
Bullish analysts highlight what they view as improving investor sentiment after the Q3 report, suggesting that in the near term they see fewer immediate negative catalysts that could pressure the shares.
One bullish research note points to operational momentum in the U.S. that "appears to be slowly improving," which they treat as an important support for Straumann's growth narrative and their higher price targets.
A CHF 9 upward revision to one Street price target signals that some bulls are willing to factor in better execution or a stronger outlook than they previously assumed, even as others are more conservative.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have issued a low-end price target around CHF 80 with a Sell rating, suggesting they see valuation as stretched versus their assumptions on margins, P/E and Straumann's ability to deliver against expectations.
The presence of a Sell view alongside recent upgrades indicates an ongoing split in conviction, where more cautious analysts remain focused on potential downside if operational or growth assumptions are not met.
Even where ratings have moved up from Sell to Neutral, at least one analyst still points to limited negative catalysts rather than strong upside drivers, which frames their stance as more balanced than outright positive.
The spread between the lower and higher Street targets, from CHF 80 up to CHF 122, underlines meaningful disagreement on Straumann's fair value and execution risk, which readers may want to factor into their own risk tolerance and time horizon.

What’s in the News

Straumann Group and Smartee Denti-Technology agreed to a partnership focused on developing a next generation orthodontics platform, co innovating clear aligner technologies and including a single digit equity investment by Smartee. The partnership combines Smartee’s China based clear aligner expertise with Straumann’s global brand and sales reach (Key Developments).
Straumann Group announced new partnerships aimed at transforming its orthodontics business around the ClearCorrect brand, with an emphasis on faster product development, use of partners’ global scale and a focus on efficiency and profitability in clear aligners (Key Developments).
The Group entered a technology focused partnership with Smartee that combines ClearCorrect’s international commercial footprint and software pipeline with Smartee’s orthodontic technology experience and manufacturing capabilities, targeting a stronger clear aligner value proposition and higher profitability across the orthodontics portfolio (Key Developments).
Straumann Holding AG scheduled an Analyst and Investor Day, giving the company a platform to update the market on its business priorities and capital allocation approach (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate edged down slightly from about CHF 111.74 to about CHF 111.22, reflecting a small recalibration in the model.
The discount rate moved marginally from about 4.57% to about 4.56%, indicating only a very small adjustment in the assumed risk profile.
Revenue growth is essentially unchanged, with the input moving from about 7.53% to about 7.53%, pointing to a stable top line assumption.
The net profit margin has been trimmed slightly, from about 20.84% to about 20.79%, indicating a modestly more cautious view on profitability.
The future P/E eased a touch from about 30.41x to about 30.33x, signaling a very small shift in how much investors are assumed to be willing to pay for future earnings.

Expansion in emerging markets and digital dentistry drives revenue growth, pricing power, and recurring high-margin income.
Diversified manufacturing, products, and local market strategies enhance resilience and position Straumann for long-term above-market growth.
Currency headwinds, tariff risks, price competition in China, underperformance in orthodontics, and sustained high costs threaten margins, earnings growth, and long-term financial targets.

Catalysts

About Straumann Holding

Provides tooth replacement and orthodontic solutions worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Strong revenue and earnings growth in Asia-Pacific (particularly China) and Latin America is likely to accelerate as local manufacturing capacity and clinical training investments come online, enabling Straumann to capture a larger share of an expanding addressable market driven by demographic change and rising wealth in emerging economies. (Impacts: revenue, operating margin, EPS)
New product launches such as iEXCEL and digital platforms like SIRIOS and AXS are gaining rapid market share, enhancing Straumann's pricing power in the premium segment and creating potential for higher average selling prices and improved gross margins as adoption increases. (Impacts: revenue growth, gross margin, EBIT margin)
Ongoing expansion in digital dentistry, evidenced by double-digit growth in intraoral scanners and 3D printing solutions, is positioning Straumann to benefit from structural industry shifts toward integrated digital workflows, which should drive recurring higher-margin revenues and operating leverage over time. (Impacts: recurring revenues, net margins, long-term earnings)
Localized manufacturing and regulatory readiness in China, coupled with a multi-brand, multi-price approach, provide a competitive edge as government initiatives improve implant affordability and access-creating a sustainable platform for both volume growth and resilience to potential future price regulation. (Impacts: volume growth, operating income, risk mitigation)
Global population aging and increased oral health awareness continue to drive demand for dental implants and aesthetic procedures; Straumann's diversified global footprint and ongoing investments in education and capacity are likely to enable above-market growth, supporting sustained increases in both top-line and bottom-line performance. (Impacts: long-term revenue growth, margin expansion, EPS growth)

Straumann Holding Earnings and Revenue Growth

Straumann Holding Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Straumann Holding's revenue will grow by 9.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 16.6% today to 21.2% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach CHF 712.0 million (and earnings per share of CHF 4.51) by about September 2028, up from CHF 428.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as CHF563.9 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 29.8x on those 2028 earnings, down from 34.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Medical Equipment industry at 34.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 4.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Straumann Holding Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing exposure to adverse currency movements (especially Swiss franc strength and weakness in emerging market currencies) has already materially compressed both top-line revenue growth and EBIT margins, and is expected to remain a persistent headwind, limiting earnings growth and potentially decreasing net margins further.
Heightened global trade tensions, including newly imposed and potentially escalating tariffs (particularly U.S.-Brazil and U.S.-Switzerland) could lead to structurally higher costs, squeeze gross and operating margins, and create greater volatility in manufacturing footprint efficiency, thus reducing long-term profitability.
Intensifying price competition in China, tied to uncertain outlooks for VBP (volume-based procurement), could drive pricing pressure and margin erosion; if VBP 2.0 or future cycles involve additional price cuts, this could significantly lower ASPs and limit Straumann's ability to grow revenue in one of its key growth markets.
The orthodontics segment, which was previously a pillar of long-term growth projections, is currently underperforming against management's earlier expectations; weaker-than-planned growth in clear aligners could structurally reduce the company's overall long-term revenue growth profile and impair its ability to reach 2030 targets.
Continuing investment requirements in manufacturing expansion, digital transformation, and innovation are resulting in sustained high CapEx and operating costs, with recent declines in free cash flow; if revenue growth fails to offset these costs due to external headwinds or internal execution risks, net margins and earnings could be pressured over the long term.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CHF117.0 for Straumann Holding based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CHF145.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CHF85.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be CHF3.4 billion, earnings will come to CHF712.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 29.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 4.5%.
Given the current share price of CHF92.94, the analyst price target of CHF117.0 is 20.6% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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