Last Update 04 Apr 26

Fair value Decreased 7.70%

RMV: Capital Returns And Margin Resilience Will Support Long Term Shareholder Returns

Rightmove's updated analyst price targets have edged lower, with cuts of up to £0.32 per share, as analysts factor in slightly higher discount rates, a reduction in assumed profit margins, and more conservative future P/E assumptions despite steady revenue growth expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Rightmove shows a clear split between analysts who still see upside in the business model and those who are becoming more cautious on valuation and execution risk. Target prices have been adjusted, but the overall message for you as an investor is that views are now more finely balanced around what the current share price already reflects.

Bullish Takeaways

Some bullish analysts are maintaining relatively high target prices, such as £7.65 per share. This suggests they see room for the shares to support a premium P/E multiple if execution on profitability and growth stays on track.
The decision by these bullish analysts to keep positive ratings even after trimming targets indicates they still view the long term structural position of Rightmove as intact, with earnings power that can support their valuation work.
For investors who prioritise growth and resilience of the core business, the combination of steady revenue expectations and supportive ratings from bullish analysts can be read as confidence that the company can continue to justify a higher-end valuation range.
Target cuts from bullish analysts have generally been incremental rather than drastic in absolute terms. This may signal that their adjustments are more about fine tuning discount rates and margin assumptions than a fundamental shift in how they view the business model.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts, including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, have lowered price targets more aggressively, with one move from £8.15 to £5.10 per share and another cut of £0.32 per share. This reflects a view that the shares may not warrant previous valuation levels.
Underweight ratings from bearish analysts highlight concerns that current market expectations for growth and profitability could be demanding, especially if margin assumptions prove optimistic or discount rates stay higher for longer than previously modelled.
The clustering of targets for the more cautious group around the low £5 range implies they see a tighter relationship between current earnings, adjusted P/E assumptions, and what they consider a reasonable entry point for the stock.
For investors, this more cautious stance serves as a reminder to stress test valuation scenarios, particularly around P/E multiples and long term margin profiles, rather than assuming that historic premium ratings automatically hold in the current setup.

What's in the News

The Board of Directors has proposed a final dividend of 6.59 pence per qualifying ordinary share for the year ended 31 December 2025, subject to shareholder approval, with a total cash outlay of £49,500,000 and an expected payment date of 22 May 2026 (Key Developments).
Rightmove has announced a share repurchase program of up to £90m, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled and the program running until 31 July 2026 (Key Developments).
The Board approved a buyback plan on 27 February 2026, setting the framework for continued capital returns through share repurchases (Key Developments).
Between 1 July 2025 and 31 December 2025, Rightmove repurchased 12,295,037 shares for £76.1m, and in total has completed the repurchase of 15,489,884 shares for £98.92m under the buyback announced on 13 May 2025, reducing the share count by 2.01% (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: revised from £6.23 to £5.75 per share, indicating a modest reduction in the central valuation estimate.
Discount Rate: moved slightly higher from 8.59% to 8.71%, reflecting a small increase in the required return used in the model.
Revenue Growth: adjusted from 8.52% to 8.72%, signalling a slightly higher assumed top line growth rate.
Net Profit Margin: updated from 48.64% to 47.83%, implying a small reduction in expected profitability on each £ of revenue.
Future P/E: trimmed from 23.08x to 20.76x, pointing to a lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

0 views

Key Takeaways

Leading platform engagement and ongoing digital innovation are driving higher user traffic, advertiser demand, and enhanced monetization opportunities.
Expansion into new verticals and uptake of premium agent packages are reducing reliance on the resale market and strengthening diversified, high-margin growth.
Reliance on UK market, customer churn, low-value onboarding, fierce competition, and slower innovation threaten Rightmove's growth, margins, and ability to diversify revenues.

Catalysts

About Rightmove

Operates digital property advertising and information portal in the United Kingdom and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The ongoing digitization of property search and transactions, combined with Rightmove's market-leading engagement (second highest time on site ever, 85% direct/organic traffic, and strong brand saliency), supports continued migration of consumers and agents to its platform, likely increasing traffic, advertiser demand, and thus top-line revenue growth.
Rightmove is accelerating the rollout of AI-enabled tools and personalized digital features, leading to higher consumer engagement and improved monetization of proprietary user data; early-stage initiatives (like AI-powered mortgage tools, automated valuation models, and conversational search) are expected to increase ARPA and create new high-margin revenue streams, positively impacting both revenue and net margins in the medium to long term.
Expansion into adjacent verticals (mortgages, rental services, and commercial), where revenue growth is already notably strong (+100% in mortgages, +34% in rental services, and +14% in commercial), demonstrates tangible progress towards building diversified, multi-segment revenue streams, reducing reliance on the UK resale market and underpinning long-term earnings growth potential.
Uptake in premium/value-added agent packages and products (e.g., Optimiser Edge, Ascend, and discretionary product spend), combined with high retention (highest in over 10 years) and increasing partner engagement, shows Rightmove's pricing power and ability to drive double-digit ARPA growth, which directly supports top-line revenue and profit growth.
Continued consolidation in the digital real estate portal sector and increasing integration of end-to-end digital solutions (e.g., Lead to Keys, digitized homebuying) reinforce network effects, consumer stickiness, and Rightmove's competitive moat-sustaining high operating leverage and supporting industry-leading net margins over the long term.

Rightmove Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Rightmove's revenue will grow by 8.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 51.1% today to 47.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach £261.3 million (and earnings per share of £0.37) by about April 2029, up from £217.1 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.8x on those 2029 earnings, up from 14.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Interactive Media and Services industry at 19.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.19% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.71%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent new agent churn and lower initial ARPA (Average Revenue Per Advertiser) from new joiners-nearly 40% of new agents exit within two years and most start on the lowest package-could limit sustainable ARPA growth and slow top-line revenue over the longer term.
Recent revenue gains in strategic growth areas (commercial, mortgages, rental) are partly driven by signing up smaller clients and new partners at lower price points, which has a dilutive effect on ARPA; this trend may cap margin expansion and slow earnings leverage if upselling and product penetration do not outpace customer mix dilution.
Rightmove's limited international exposure leaves it highly dependent on the UK property market; any prolonged stagnation, structural decline, or government policy shift (e.g., housing supply constraints, changes in stamp duty, or regulations such as tenant fee bans) would directly threaten revenue, cash flow, and earnings growth.
Increasing competition from alternative digital property platforms and well-resourced rivals ramping up product launches, digital marketing, and differentiated business models (as seen with aggressive moves by CoStar/OnTheMarket and Zoopla) poses a risk of fragmenting traffic, eroding Rightmove's lead, and compressing net margins over time.
The industry's rapid evolution toward end-to-end digital real estate transactions and more aggressive consumer monetization (notably present in international peers) may outpace Rightmove's measured, incremental innovation strategy; consumer and partner expectations for modern, seamless services could shift faster than Rightmove adapts, raising longer-term risks to ARPA growth, platform engagement, and revenue diversification.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of £5.75 for Rightmove based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of £7.85, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just £4.2.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be £546.3 million, earnings will come to £261.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.7%.
Given the current share price of £4.29, the analyst price target of £5.75 is 25.3% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Rightmove?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Property Digitization And AI Rollout Will Transform Real Estate