Last Update 19 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 3.07%

DHER: Future Margin Execution And Portfolio Actions Will Drive Repricing

The analyst price target for Delivery Hero has been adjusted slightly higher to reflect a fair value move from €29.55 to €30.46, while recent Street research shows revised price targets in the €19 to €35 range as analysts reassess growth expectations, profit margin assumptions, and future P/E levels.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research around Delivery Hero points to a mixed but still engaged analyst view, with several firms adjusting their price targets while maintaining coverage and formal ratings on the shares.

Bullish Takeaways

JPMorgan keeps an Overweight rating while trimming its price target from €34 to €33. This indicates that bullish analysts still see upside potential relative to current trading levels, even after reassessing their assumptions.
A separate JPMorgan update with a price target of €31, again alongside an Overweight stance, indicates that some bullish analysts are willing to accept lower valuation headroom while still backing the company’s ability to execute.
RBC Capital maintains an Outperform rating with a revised target of €35 from €38, positioning Delivery Hero at the upper end of the recent €19 to €35 target range and signalling confidence in the business model and long term growth drivers.
The clustering of higher targets in the low to mid €30s indicates that bullish analysts continue to value Delivery Hero on the basis of future earnings power, even as they refine P/E and profitability assumptions.

Bearish Takeaways

A Neutral rating paired with a reduced target of €19 from €25 highlights that some bearish analysts are more cautious on execution and earnings visibility, and are assigning materially lower fair value than the bullish camp.
Across the updates, all cited targets have been revised downward, which indicates a general recalibration of expectations around growth, margin progression and the timing of profitability.
The wide spread between the lowest target at €19 and the higher targets around €33 to €35 highlights uncertainty around how consistently Delivery Hero can deliver on its financial plan.
For you as an investor, this split between Overweight or Outperform ratings at the top of the range and a Neutral view at the bottom indicates that the risk and reward profile is being interpreted in very different ways across the Street, and position sizing and time horizon remain key considerations.

What’s in the News

Several major shareholders are pressuring Delivery Hero to consider selling the entire company or divesting parts of its business, reflecting growing investor frustration with the current setup and performance (Key Developments).
The company’s market value is cited at about €5.2b, with shares reported to have seen a 53% decline over the past year, which is adding to shareholder tension around the existing portfolio and execution (Key Developments).
Investors including Hong Kong’s Aspex Management, Singapore’s Broad Peak Investment Advisers, and Switzerland’s PSquared Asset Management, along with at least one large US fund, have raised concerns about Delivery Hero’s financial performance and portfolio strategy (Key Developments).
Some shareholders are calling for a broader review of the business after earlier attempts to sell assets, including the Taiwan unit, did not lead to successful disposals (Key Developments).
Potential buyers mentioned for the group or specific units include Meituan, Grab, or Uber, with Delivery Hero’s Korean food delivery app Baedal Minjok described as a particularly attractive asset for interested parties (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has been lifted slightly from €29.55 to €30.46, implying a modest reset in what analysts see as justified pricing for the shares.
The discount rate has been reduced from 7.99% to 7.45%, suggesting a lower required return in the updated model.
The revenue growth assumption has been raised from 10.95% to 11.62%, reflecting a small upward adjustment to expected top line expansion.
The profit margin forecast has been cut from 0.66% to 0.42%, indicating a more cautious stance on how much of that revenue turns into profit.
The future P/E multiple has been moved higher from 98.51x to 155.39x, pointing to a meaningfully richer earnings multiple in the new assumptions.

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Key Takeaways

Diversified market exposure and a strong multi-vertical platform drive sustained growth, increased user engagement, and resilience against competition.
Technology integration and new service models enhance operational efficiency, boost customer value, and support long-term margin and earnings improvement.
Regulatory pressures, currency volatility, rising operating costs, legal risks, and heightened competition threaten long-term profitability, growth, and financial stability.

Catalysts

About Delivery Hero

Offers online food ordering and delivery services.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Rapid urbanization, evolving consumer habits, and a younger, digitally native customer base are expanding the adoption of delivery services globally; Delivery Hero's strong multi-vertical platform and exposure to high-growth urban and emerging markets position it to capture incremental user growth and higher order frequency, supporting sustained revenue growth over time.
Increased adoption of digital payments worldwide is reducing friction in online ordering, particularly among younger consumers who favor convenience; this drives order frequency and larger basket sizes for Delivery Hero, which should boost both topline revenue and improve customer lifetime value.
Operational leverage from AI integration and ongoing platform unification-evidenced by tech-driven cost reductions (e.g., 9.5% reduction in cost per order after Glovo integration and an 18% increase in deliveries per rider per hour in Korea)-is compressing logistics costs and supporting net margin and EBITDA improvement as scale increases.
Expansion in Q-commerce and continued rollout of own delivery and subscription models (notably in Korea and Turkey) open new revenue streams and increase customer engagement, expected to drive both higher revenue and enhanced long-term margin structure.
Strong leadership positions in diverse geographies (Asia, MENA, Europe, Americas) with demonstrated double-digit GMV and revenue growth protect Delivery Hero from competitive risks, support outsized market share capture, and lay a foundation for improving net income and long-term earnings growth.

Delivery Hero Earnings and Revenue Growth

Delivery Hero Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Delivery Hero's revenue will grow by 10.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -4.2% today to 1.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €295.6 million (and earnings per share of €1.41) by about September 2028, up from €-560.5 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €512 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €197.9 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 46.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -12.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Hospitality industry at 22.4x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.92% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.77%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Delivery Hero Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing regulatory challenges, particularly in Europe with the forced transition to employment-based rider models (e.g., €450 million payment demands in Spain and provisions in Italy), are leading to significant increases in labor and social security costs, which could persist or escalate, negatively impacting long-term net margins and cash flow.
The company faces persistent foreign exchange volatility and headwinds, especially from depreciation of the U.S. dollar and Korean won, causing downward revisions to EBITDA and free cash flow guidance; sustained FX weakness may continue to erode reported revenues and earnings over the long term.
Delivery Hero's aggressive rollout of own delivery (OD) in key markets like Korea and Turkey, while improving customer experience, is noted to yield lower margins per order compared to marketplace orders and requires up-front investments, increasing operational costs and pressuring near
to medium-term profitability.
Legal liabilities and ongoing court actions (notably the €450 million in Spain and large antitrust settlements in the EU) demand major cash outflows and create enduring uncertainty; adverse outcomes could result in further financial penalties, straining liquidity and depressing net income.
Increased competition and price-based market saturation, particularly in high-growth areas like MENA and Asia, along with underdeveloped merchant funding models in Korea, threaten Delivery Hero's ability to sustain top-line growth and margin expansion, potentially leading to slower revenue growth and elevated customer acquisition and retention costs.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €34.068 for Delivery Hero based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €52.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €21.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €17.9 billion, earnings will come to €295.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 46.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.8%.
Given the current share price of €24.05, the analyst price target of €34.07 is 29.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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