Last Update 24 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 2.28%

CNX: Mixed Rating Shifts Will Shape Cash Flow And Capital Return Outlook

Analysts have inched up their CNX Resources fair value estimate from about US$34.50 to around US$35.29. This reflects updated assumptions on revenue growth, profitability and a slightly higher discount rate, despite a mix of recent target hikes and a downgrade in Street research.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on CNX Resources is mixed, with some bullish analysts lifting price targets and at least one bearish analyst moving to a more cautious stance. That split helps explain why the updated fair value estimate has only nudged higher, rather than moving sharply.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts raising their price targets suggest they see the current share price as not fully reflecting CNX Resources' execution and cash flow potential, even with a slightly higher discount rate applied in the latest valuation work.
Target moves higher by US$1 and US$4 indicate growing confidence in how management is running the business. This feeds into assumptions around the stability of future earnings and the company’s ability to fund its plans.
These more optimistic views generally point to room for CNX Resources to close the gap between intrinsic value estimates around US$35 and where the market is currently pricing the stock.
Supportive research also provides a backstop for the updated fair value. This reinforces that the latest model tweaks have not materially weakened the long term thesis behind CNX Resources.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts moving to a downgrade signal concern that recent share price performance or operating trends may already reflect much of the upside that more optimistic models are baking in.
The downgrade tone points to risks around execution, such as the company’s ability to sustain margins or manage its capital allocation in a way that fully supports the current fair value assumptions.
More cautious voices also highlight the possibility that if underlying conditions soften or costs rise, the updated valuation around US$35.29 could prove too optimistic relative to realized results.
This push and pull between higher targets and fresh downgrades leaves CNX Resources in a watchlist zone for many investors. In this context, monitoring delivery against expectations and any revisions to Street models remains important.

What's in the News

The Board appointed Everett Good, currently Vice President of Finance and Treasury, as Chief Financial Officer effective January 1, 2026, succeeding Alan Shepard, who will become President, Chief Executive Officer, and a Board member on the same date (company filing).
CNX Resources revised its 2025 production guidance to 620 Bcfe to 625 Bcfe, compared with previous guidance of 615 Bcfe to 620 Bcfe (company guidance update).
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, the company reported total production volumes of 161.3 Bcfe, with average daily production of 1,753.3 MMcfe (company results announcement).
Between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, CNX Resources repurchased 6,052,201 shares for US$182.31 million, and has completed the repurchase of 110,422,432 shares for US$1.92131 billion under the buyback program announced on October 30, 2018 (company buyback update).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate: moved slightly higher from about US$34.50 to around US$35.29 per share, representing a modest uplift in the intrinsic value range used in the model.
Discount Rate: edged up from roughly 7.16% to about 7.20%, indicating a small increase in the return hurdle applied to CNX Resources.
Revenue Growth: shifted higher from about 5.33% to roughly 6.78%, suggesting that the updated model now assumes a stronger top line trajectory than before.
Net Profit Margin: eased back from around 30.55% to about 30.03%, reflecting slightly more conservative expectations on profitability.
Future P/E: remains effectively unchanged, moving marginally from about 6.65x to roughly 6.65x, so the earnings multiple assumption is broadly stable.

Increasing natural gas demand and new environmental revenue streams are set to boost CNX Resources' margins and long-term cash flow.
Operational efficiencies and product diversification position the company for sustained, high-quality earnings and premium market opportunities.
Regulatory uncertainty, speculative demand growth, and operational constraints create volatility in revenues and margins, while new expansion opportunities carry unproven long-term potential and cost competitiveness risks.

Catalysts

About CNX Resources

An independent natural gas and midstream company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of natural gas properties in the Appalachian Basin.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Anticipated growth in power demand from AI-driven data centers and broader electrification is expected to materially increase in-basin natural gas consumption, which could provide long-term pricing support and bolster CNX Resources' revenue and cash flow.
Favorable policy and regulatory shifts towards cleaner-burning natural gas-including programs like 45Z tax credits and renewable energy attribute markets-are creating new, high-margin revenue streams (e.g., RMG sales, environmental credits), potentially enhancing both net margins and free cash flow.
Ongoing operational improvements, particularly efficiency gains and cost reductions in Utica and Marcellus wells, are lowering capital and operating expenditures per unit, supporting structurally higher margins and improved earnings sustainability over the long term.
Strategic focus on capital discipline and share repurchases is set to drive higher earnings per share (EPS), potentially resulting in valuation re-rating as free cash flow generation grows.
Expansion into differentiated products (RNG, blue hydrogen, carbon-linked derivatives) and flexible participation in voluntary and compliance environmental markets position CNX to capture diversified, premium-priced revenue streams, underpinning long-term top-line and earnings growth.

CNX Resources Earnings and Revenue Growth

CNX Resources Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming CNX Resources's revenue will grow by 8.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.6% today to 36.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $859.1 million (and earnings per share of $4.76) by about September 2028, up from $155.7 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 5.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 26.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Oil and Gas industry at 12.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.26% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.92%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

CNX Resources Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's ability to fully realize anticipated tax credits (such as 45Z) and other environmental attribute revenues is subject to final regulatory rulemaking and eligibility uncertainties, creating risk to the predictability and sustainability of free cash flow and earnings.
In-basin demand growth, such as from AI-driven data centers, remains speculative and contingent on a number of external factors like actual project construction and timing; this uncertainty may limit future demand uplift, resulting in sustained or depressed regional natural gas prices and impacting revenue.
Ongoing capital discipline and running a one-rig program, coupled with sequencing of well turn-in-lines, results in periods of production decline and operational lulls, which could constrain scale benefits and create volatile quarterly revenues and net margins.
Expansion into the Utica shale represents a promising growth avenue, but longer-term performance and repeatability of results remain unproven over broader acreage, increasing risk around future production volumes and the company's ability to keep costs competitive for sustainable earnings growth.
Participation in voluntary or compliance environmental credit markets for products like RMG is dependent on evolving market values, regulatory regimes, and stackability limitations; changes in demand or rule interpretation could reduce realized attribute pricing, compressing forecasted margin and free cash flow improvement.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $31.692 for CNX Resources based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $41.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $24.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.3 billion, earnings will come to $859.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 5.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.9%.
Given the current share price of $29.1, the analyst price target of $31.69 is 8.2% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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