EV Challenges And Acquisitions Will Reshape Auto Components Outlook

Key Takeaways

• Core business faces disruption from electric vehicle adoption and shifting transportation trends, threatening long-term revenue and margin stability.
  
• Diversification efforts and industry pressures introduce risks of margin dilution, integration challenges, and rising costs, potentially impacting profitability.
  
• Gabriel India's diversification, premium product expansion, and operational initiatives strengthen margin resilience and growth potential while reducing risk from sector slowdowns.

Catalysts

Manufactures and sells of ride control products to the automotive industry in India, the Netherlands, and internationally.

• The increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), which typically require fewer conventional suspension components and have different technical requirements, could erode Gabriel India's core business in traditional ICE vehicle components. If Gabriel fails to rapidly innovate or shift product lines for these evolving needs, this could result in stagnating or declining revenues and reduced long-term earnings growth.
  
• The global move towards shared mobility, urban-centric transportation, and reduced personal vehicle ownership may constrain long-term automobile production volumes. As Gabriel India remains highly dependent on OEM order volumes, this headwind could affect future topline growth and limit scale benefits on net margins.
  
• Gabriel is in the midst of a significant diversification and acquisition drive (including proposed integration of Anchemco, Dana Anand, Henkel Anand, and Anand CY Myutec), but there are execution risks and integration costs, as well as potential margin dilution from absorbing lower-margin or underperforming entities. These factors may negatively impact consolidated EBITDA margins and overall profitability.
  
• The auto components industry is experiencing heightened price competition and risk of commoditization, especially in areas where Gabriel's offerings lack technological differentiation. Price wars and cost pressures from major OEM clients can compress margins and restrain earnings growth, especially as raw material price volatility may not be fully passed through.
  
• Rising ESG-related compliance costs and regulatory scrutiny pose additional burdens for traditional manufacturing businesses like Gabriel. If the company cannot accelerate its transition to sustainable practices and products, it may face higher ongoing expenses and risk lower net margins in the future.

Gabriel India Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Gabriel India's revenue will grow by 15.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 5.9% today to 6.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₹4.3 billion (and earnings per share of ₹25.4) by about September 2028, up from ₹2.5 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 45.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 70.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the IN Auto Components industry at 29.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.1% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 14.24%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Gabriel India Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Gabriel India's strategic transformation-including planned acquisitions of four new entities and joint ventures-is set to diversify its product mix beyond suspension systems, reducing dependence on single-product revenue streams and protecting consolidated revenue growth from sector-specific slowdowns.
  
• The company is expanding into high-margin segments like sunroofs (with leading EBITDA margins of 14.4%) and fasteners through collaborations and technology transfers with global partners, which is likely to support margin expansion and earnings stability as product premiumization remains a long-term auto industry trend.
  
• Operational excellence initiatives and steady capacity investments (e.g., doubling sunroof capacity, launching new plant lines, expanding railway and export markets) are leading to consistent revenue and PAT growth (16% and 8% YoY respectively), positioning Gabriel to benefit from both domestic and global demand surges.
  
• The focus on "Make in India," import substitution, and strong OEM relationships in both traditional vehicles and emerging EV models positions Gabriel India to tap into ongoing localization, electrification, and government-backed manufacturing incentives, supporting topline growth and net margin resilience.
  
• Continued margin improvement, robust balance sheet, and credible guidance towards double-digit EBITDA for core and new businesses indicate strong execution capability, providing long-term earnings growth potential as the company leverages synergies from acquisitions, broader export reach, aftermarket expansion, and product innovation.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₹916.0 for Gabriel India based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₹1440.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₹445.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be ₹64.8 billion, earnings will come to ₹4.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 45.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 14.2%.
• Given the current share price of ₹1224.8, the analyst price target of ₹916.0 is 33.7% lower. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to improve, they seem to believe the market's expectations are too high.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.