Last Update 04 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 3.23%

COLD: Future Recovery Will Depend On Demand Normalization And Occupancy Stabilization

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Americold Realty Trust to $15.00 from $15.50, citing reduced revenue growth expectations, lower profit margin forecasts, and higher projected valuation multiples, following a series of recent price target cuts and rating downgrades across the Street.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Americold Realty Trust has turned more cautious in recent months, with several price target cuts and rating downgrades highlighting both company specific execution risks and broader macro headwinds for the cold storage REIT space.

While opinions vary on the pace of recovery and the appropriate valuation multiple, most coverage now frames the stock as a higher risk turnaround story that will need to prove out its growth algorithm and margin durability over the next two years.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point out that the shares already trade at a discount to estimated replacement cost. This suggests downside may be at least partially priced in if execution stabilizes.
Some see healthy operating conditions across much of the REIT universe as a supportive backdrop. They argue that any normalization in demand or labor costs could unlock operating leverage at Americold over time.
There is a view that revised, more conservative growth and occupancy assumptions set a lower bar for management. This potentially creates room for upside surprises if volume trends or pricing hold up better than feared.
For longer term investors, the structural need for temperature controlled logistics is still viewed as intact. This is seen as offering a potential platform for resumed growth once near term headwinds abate.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts emphasize that recent quarters and outlook updates have been disappointing. This reinforces concerns about Americold's ability to execute against guidance and deliver consistent organic growth.
Several note a tepid demand environment and lagging trends relative to historical norms, which could pressure occupancy, limit pricing power, and weigh on margins into 2026.
There is growing concern that elevated fixed commit contracts may roll down as retailers aggressively seek cost savings. This could potentially undermine revenue visibility and cash flow stability.
JPMorgan and other cautious voices argue that 2026 consensus earnings estimates may still be too high, leaving further estimate cuts and multiple compression as ongoing headwinds for the valuation.

What's in the News

Recorded a significantly lower unaudited impairment of long lived assets for the third quarter of 2025, at $77,000 versus $2.95 million previously, signaling fewer write downs in the period (Key Developments).
Reiterated full year 2025 guidance, calling for Warehouse segment same store revenue growth (constant currency) in a range of negative 4.0 percent to 0.0 percent and NOI growth 50 to 100 basis points below revenue, with non same store Warehouse NOI of $7 million to $13 million (Key Developments).
Opened a major new cold storage facility in Dubai, its largest operational site in the Middle East, through joint venture RSA Cold Chain and in partnership with DP World, expanding capacity by 40,000 pallet positions and enhancing access to GCC markets (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has been reduced slightly, moving from $15.50 to $15.00 per share.
The Discount Rate has edged down marginally, from 11.68 percent to approximately 11.63 percent, reflecting a modestly lower perceived risk profile.
Revenue Growth has been revised down, from about 4.67 percent annually to roughly 3.69 percent, indicating more tempered top-line expectations.
The Net Profit Margin has been cut significantly, from around 1.43 percent to approximately 0.58 percent, signaling weaker anticipated profitability.
The future P/E multiple has risen sharply, from about 144.6x to roughly 352.7x, largely as a mechanical result of lower earnings forecasts against a similar price level.

Expanding global presence, automation investments, and long-term contracts position Americold to benefit from rising food logistics demand and recurring, stable revenue streams.
High barriers to entry, strong partnerships, and disciplined portfolio management support operational efficiency, margin expansion, and future earnings growth.
Ongoing demand headwinds, internalization by customers, and rising costs threaten occupancy, pricing power, and long-term profitability amid heightened competition and uncertain macro trends.

Catalysts

About Americold Realty Trust

Americold is a global leader in temperature-controlled logistics real estate and value-added services.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Ongoing global growth in food consumption and rising population-combined with Americold's expanding international footprint and new facility openings in high-demand regions (such as Allentown, Dubai, and Asia Pacific)-positions the company to benefit from increasing demand for temperature-controlled storage, supporting higher occupancy and long-term revenue growth as macro headwinds abate.
The accelerating shift toward e-commerce grocery and direct-to-consumer food delivery continues to drive sustained, structural demand for complex cold-storage logistics and rapid fulfillment, aligning with Americold's investments in automation, specialized services, and high-turn retail/QSR business, enabling them to capture both greater market share and higher-margin revenue growth.
Heightened industry focus on food safety, regulatory compliance, and supply chain transparency leads food producers and grocers to prefer established, proven cold-storage partners; Americold's strong contractual relationships, best-in-class service reputation, and high percentage (60%) of multiyear fixed-commit contracts provide lease stability and predictable, recurring cash flows.
Barriers to entry in cold storage-such as high capital intensity, know-how, and regulatory requirements-restrict new competitors, favoring Americold's scale advantages; ongoing investment in technology and partnerships (e.g., CPKC, DP World) enhance operating efficiencies and support improving net margins and future earnings growth potential.
Strategic focus on customer-dedicated expansions, stable international markets (with 90%+ occupancy), and disposition of non-core assets enables Americold to redeploy capital into higher-return projects, optimize its portfolio, deleverage, and ultimately drive long-term NOI and AFFO per share growth as industry cycles recover.

Americold Realty Trust Earnings and Revenue Growth

Americold Realty Trust Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Americold Realty Trust's revenue will grow by 5.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.1% today to 3.0% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $92.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.2) by about September 2028, up from $-54.8 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $128 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-14.0 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 82.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -72.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Industrial REITs industry at 27.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.19% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Americold Realty Trust Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent demand headwinds-including high interest rates, tariffs, inflation, government benefit reductions, and excess cold storage capacity-are combining to suppress both occupancy and pricing, creating sustained pressure on revenue growth and potentially limiting earnings expansion.
Increasing customer tendency to utilize their own cold storage infrastructure and delay inventory restocking minimizes dependency on third-party providers like Americold, which could further weaken occupancy rates and slow warehouse revenue recovery.
Elevated capital expenditures related to large-scale development projects, automation, and global expansion have increased leverage (net debt at $3.9 billion and net debt/EBITDA at 6.3x), exposing the company to higher interest expense and potentially pressuring net margins and earnings if revenue growth does not accelerate.
Intensifying competition, particularly with some market participants engaging in "irrational" pricing and the ongoing risk that major food producers and retailers might internalize their cold-chain logistics, threatens Americold's market share, pricing power, and long-term revenue stability.
The lack of typical seasonal inventory builds and ongoing uncertainty in macroeconomic trends mean occupancy and throughput levels could remain muted for several quarters; if macro headwinds persist or food preservation technology advances, long-term financial outcomes such as revenue, margins, and AFFO per share could be negatively affected.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $20.133 for Americold Realty Trust based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $27.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $15.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.1 billion, earnings will come to $92.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 82.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.8%.
Given the current share price of $13.88, the analyst price target of $20.13 is 31.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analyst Revisions Reflect Cautious Optimism for Americold Realty Trust Amid Valuation Changes