Last Update 02 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 1.33%

COLD: Future Recovery Will Rely On Occupancy And Pricing Conditions Improving

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Americold Realty Trust by $0.20 to $14.80. This reflects a more cautious stance on cold storage REITs overall, even as some see selective upside and ongoing challenges around demand, pricing, and occupancy.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on Americold Realty Trust points to a mixed setup, with views split between potential value in the shares and concerns around execution, demand, and cold storage fundamentals.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts have lifted price targets into the low to mid teens, suggesting they see room for the stock to better reflect its underlying real estate and cold storage platform over time.
Some see the broader REIT group as positioned for a possible turnaround, which could support sentiment toward Americold if sector conditions and capital markets remain constructive.
There is reference to discounted valuations relative to estimated replacement cost, which can appeal to investors focused on asset value and potential re-rating if conditions improve.
Maintained Overweight and Neutral stances from larger houses indicate that, despite cuts and volatility, Americold still fits into certain institutional portfolios looking for REIT exposure.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have cut targets from the mid teens or higher down toward the low teens, reflecting reduced confidence in Americold’s near term earnings trajectory and balance of risks.
Several firms highlight a tepid demand backdrop for cold storage, with specific worries that occupancy and pricing could stay under pressure for an extended period.
Concerns around fixed commit contracts are front and center, with some expecting retailers to push for lower costs, which could weigh on Americold’s rates and margin resilience.
Downgrades to more neutral ratings, including from Evercore ISI and RBC Capital, emphasize that many see better REIT opportunities elsewhere until macro conditions and operating metrics become more predictable.

What's in the News

Americold Realty Trust plans a CFO transition, with Christopher Papa set to become Chief Financial Officer on February 23, 2026, bringing nearly 40 years of real estate and corporate finance experience. Current CFO Jay Wells will depart, and Chief Investment Officer Scott Henderson will serve as interim CFO (Key Developments).
The company announced a new partnership with On the Run in Australia. Americold will handle storage and distribution to support OTR’s supply chain in Adelaide and its broader national expansion in the convenience retail segment (Key Developments).
Americold appointed Joseph Reece and Stephen Sleigh to its Board of Directors and formed a new Finance Committee. This is tied to a cooperation agreement with Ancora Group Holdings LLC focused on portfolio review, potential asset sales or divestitures, and debt reduction (Key Developments).
Americold reported unaudited impairment of long lived assets of $77,000 for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, compared with $2,953,000 previously reported for a comparable period, with no directional commentary provided (Key Developments).
The company reiterated 2025 guidance for its Warehouse segment, including same store revenue growth (constant currency) in a range of 4.0% decline to flat, same store NOI growth 50 to 100 bps lower than associated revenues, and non same store NOI of $7 million to $13 million (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The price target moved slightly lower from US$15.00 to US$14.80, indicating a modest trim in the expected upside.
Discount Rate: The assumed discount rate increased slightly from 11.18% to 11.33%, which generally signals a marginally higher required return for investors.
Revenue Growth: The long term revenue growth assumption edged down from about 3.69% to about 3.25%, reflecting a more cautious stance on top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: The modeled profit margin rose from about 0.61% to about 0.83%, indicating expectations for somewhat better profitability in the forecast period.
Future P/E: The assumed future P/E multiple moved lower from about 332.5x to about 245.0x, reflecting a less generous earnings multiple being used in the valuation work.

Expanding global presence, automation investments, and long-term contracts position Americold to benefit from rising food logistics demand and recurring, stable revenue streams.
High barriers to entry, strong partnerships, and disciplined portfolio management support operational efficiency, margin expansion, and future earnings growth.
Ongoing demand headwinds, internalization by customers, and rising costs threaten occupancy, pricing power, and long-term profitability amid heightened competition and uncertain macro trends.

Catalysts

About Americold Realty Trust

Americold is a global leader in temperature-controlled logistics real estate and value-added services.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Ongoing global growth in food consumption and rising population-combined with Americold's expanding international footprint and new facility openings in high-demand regions (such as Allentown, Dubai, and Asia Pacific)-positions the company to benefit from increasing demand for temperature-controlled storage, supporting higher occupancy and long-term revenue growth as macro headwinds abate.
The accelerating shift toward e-commerce grocery and direct-to-consumer food delivery continues to drive sustained, structural demand for complex cold-storage logistics and rapid fulfillment, aligning with Americold's investments in automation, specialized services, and high-turn retail/QSR business, enabling them to capture both greater market share and higher-margin revenue growth.
Heightened industry focus on food safety, regulatory compliance, and supply chain transparency leads food producers and grocers to prefer established, proven cold-storage partners; Americold's strong contractual relationships, best-in-class service reputation, and high percentage (60%) of multiyear fixed-commit contracts provide lease stability and predictable, recurring cash flows.
Barriers to entry in cold storage-such as high capital intensity, know-how, and regulatory requirements-restrict new competitors, favoring Americold's scale advantages; ongoing investment in technology and partnerships (e.g., CPKC, DP World) enhance operating efficiencies and support improving net margins and future earnings growth potential.
Strategic focus on customer-dedicated expansions, stable international markets (with 90%+ occupancy), and disposition of non-core assets enables Americold to redeploy capital into higher-return projects, optimize its portfolio, deleverage, and ultimately drive long-term NOI and AFFO per share growth as industry cycles recover.

Americold Realty Trust Earnings and Revenue Growth

Americold Realty Trust Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Americold Realty Trust's revenue will grow by 5.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.1% today to 3.0% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $92.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.2) by about September 2028, up from $-54.8 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $128 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-14.0 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 82.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -72.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Industrial REITs industry at 27.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.19% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Americold Realty Trust Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent demand headwinds-including high interest rates, tariffs, inflation, government benefit reductions, and excess cold storage capacity-are combining to suppress both occupancy and pricing, creating sustained pressure on revenue growth and potentially limiting earnings expansion.
Increasing customer tendency to utilize their own cold storage infrastructure and delay inventory restocking minimizes dependency on third-party providers like Americold, which could further weaken occupancy rates and slow warehouse revenue recovery.
Elevated capital expenditures related to large-scale development projects, automation, and global expansion have increased leverage (net debt at $3.9 billion and net debt/EBITDA at 6.3x), exposing the company to higher interest expense and potentially pressuring net margins and earnings if revenue growth does not accelerate.
Intensifying competition, particularly with some market participants engaging in "irrational" pricing and the ongoing risk that major food producers and retailers might internalize their cold-chain logistics, threatens Americold's market share, pricing power, and long-term revenue stability.
The lack of typical seasonal inventory builds and ongoing uncertainty in macroeconomic trends mean occupancy and throughput levels could remain muted for several quarters; if macro headwinds persist or food preservation technology advances, long-term financial outcomes such as revenue, margins, and AFFO per share could be negatively affected.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $20.133 for Americold Realty Trust based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $27.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $15.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.1 billion, earnings will come to $92.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 82.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.8%.
Given the current share price of $13.88, the analyst price target of $20.13 is 31.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analyst Revisions Reflect Cautious Optimism for Americold Realty Trust Amid Valuation Changes