Last Update 11 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 2.35%

GXI: Long-Term Sector Demand Will Support Confidence Despite Recent Profit Warnings

Analysts have cut their price target on Gerresheimer sharply, from roughly EUR 35 to about EUR 34. This reflects reduced fair value estimates as they factor in lower visibility on the investment case, successive target downgrades across the Street, and ongoing uncertainty following multiple profit warnings.

Analyst Commentary

Recent rating and target changes highlight a market divided on Gerresheimer, with sentiment skewed toward caution as multiple profit warnings and reduced earnings visibility weigh on conviction levels. While some see scope for recovery from depressed levels, others argue that execution risk and a lack of near term catalysts justify materially lower valuations.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts who maintain positive ratings, including JPMorgan, argue that even after sizeable target cuts, the current share price already discounts a large portion of the operational setbacks.
They see potential upside if management can stabilize margins and demonstrate consistent delivery against guidance. This could support a gradual re-rating from current compressed multiples.
The revised but still above-market price targets from bullish analysts imply confidence that long term structural demand in Gerresheimer's end markets can reassert itself once near term disruptions are addressed.
Supportive views also assume that improved capital allocation and tighter cost control could drive an earnings recovery, helping narrow the gap between the lowered fair value estimates and the current trading level.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight the magnitude of the recent target cuts, in some cases from above EUR 60 to the mid 20s, as evidence that prior growth expectations were overly optimistic and that visibility on the investment case remains weak.
They stress that successive profit warnings and guidance resets have eroded management credibility, increasing perceived execution risk and justifying lower valuation multiples.
Cautious views emphasize the lack of clear short term catalysts, with concerns that volume trends and pricing may not improve quickly enough to support a rapid earnings rebound.
Some bearish analysts flag that balance sheet flexibility and investment capacity could become more constrained if profitability does not recover as planned, limiting Gerresheimer's ability to accelerate growth projects or pursue value-accretive opportunities.

What's in the News

Barclays downgraded Gerresheimer to Equal Weight from Overweight and slashed its price target to EUR 23 from EUR 64, citing low visibility on the investment case and a lack of near term catalysts (Periodicals).
Gerresheimer revised its 2025 full year guidance, now expecting organic revenue to decline between 2% and 4%, compared with previous guidance for flat to 2% growth, while indicating that a stronger fourth quarter will not fully offset weak performance in the first nine months (Key Developments).
The company announced FDA approval for Lasix ONYU, a combination of a novel high concentration furosemide formulation with Gerresheimer's on body infusor, enabling home based subcutaneous treatment for certain heart failure patients, with first products expected on the market in 2025 (Key Developments).
Gerresheimer began construction of a new EUR 30 million production facility in Wertheim, Germany, to expand capacity for high value ready to fill vials under its EZ fill Smart packaging platform, adding around 50 new jobs and strengthening its position in injectable biopharmaceutical packaging (Key Developments).
The Supervisory Board appointed former CEO Uwe Röhrhoff as interim CEO effective November 1, 2025, following the agreed departure of current CEO Dietmar Siemssen on October 31, 2025, signaling leadership change amid a challenging operating environment (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has fallen slightly, from about €34.62 to roughly €33.81 per share, reflecting a modest reduction in the assessed upside.
The discount rate is unchanged at 9.98%, indicating no shift in the risk or cost of capital assumptions applied to Gerresheimer.
Revenue growth has edged down marginally, from around 6.10% to about 6.01% annually, signaling slightly more conservative top line expectations.
The net profit margin has risen modestly, from approximately 4.39% to about 4.55%, suggesting a small improvement in projected profitability despite weaker growth.
The future P/E multiple has declined from roughly 13.28x to about 12.55x, implying a somewhat lower valuation benchmark applied to forward earnings.

The acquisition of Bormioli Pharma and new product lines are expected to significantly boost Gerresheimer's revenue and profitability.
Strategic facility upgrades and a shift to high-value products aim to enhance margins and improve overall earnings.
Potential integration risks from Bormioli Pharma acquisition and ongoing financial challenges could affect Gerresheimer's liquidity, margins, and operational stability.

Catalysts

About Gerresheimer

Manufactures and sells medicine packaging, drug delivery devices, and solutions in Germany and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The acquisition of Bormioli Pharma is expected to propel Gerresheimer's revenues from €2 billion in 2024 to around €2.5 billion in 2025, while also enhancing the company's adjusted EBITDA margin to approximately 22%. This marks a significant step forward in terms of revenue growth and profitability enhancement.
The anticipated organic growth rate of 3% to 5% in 2025, driven by new product lines, a shift towards high-value products, and normalization of operations at facilities affected by prior disruptions, is poised to positively impact Gerresheimer's revenue and profitability.
The ramping up of new production lines in Skopje and Peachtree City, and the introduction of advanced products such as ready-to-fill syringes and vials, indicates a move towards higher-margin products which is expected to improve net margins and earnings.
The strategic transitions and capacity expansions at key facilities like the new state-of-the-art hybrid furnace in Lohr, and the restoration of full capacity at Morganton, are likely to enhance production efficiency and contribute positively to future earnings.
The ongoing trend towards high-value product offerings, such as the shift from standard bulk vials to high-value vials, is positioned to strengthen net margins and improve overall earnings due to superior pricing and market demand for innovative solutions.

Gerresheimer Earnings and Revenue Growth

Gerresheimer Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Gerresheimer's revenue will grow by 9.5% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.9% today to 6.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €197.3 million (and earnings per share of €5.87) by about September 2028, up from €63.3 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €325.1 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €125 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 23.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Life Sciences industry at 23.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.59%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Gerresheimer Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The integration of Bormioli Pharma presents potential integration risks and associated costs, which could impact overall operational efficiency and margins.
There is significant seasonal fluctuation in cash flow, with Q1 often showing negative free cash flow figures, which could stress liquidity and financial stability if not managed prudently.
Ongoing challenges in the moulded glass sector, including decreased demand in the cosmetics market, could negatively impact revenues and operational stability in the short term.
The company's increased leverage due to the acquisition of Bormioli could, if not carefully managed, lead to financial strain, impacting earnings and investor confidence.
Delays and disruptions, such as those from natural disasters affecting Morganton, could introduce further operational risks, impacting revenue streams and margins.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €66.84 for Gerresheimer based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €100.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €47.5.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €2.9 billion, earnings will come to €197.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.6%.
Given the current share price of €43.44, the analyst price target of €66.84 is 35.0% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Ongoing Uncertainties And Downgrades Will Shape Efficiency Efforts Ahead