EDV: Higher Gold Prices And Cost Discipline Will Support Cash Returns

The updated analyst price target for Endeavour Mining has increased to CA$94.48 from CA$92.48, with analysts attributing the change to expectations of stronger revenue growth and adjustments to discount rate, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates show several firms revisiting their price targets and ratings on Endeavour Mining, giving you a snapshot of how professionals are weighing the risk and reward right now.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts have raised price targets in both Canadian dollars and British pounds, which signals that they see more upside in the equity value versus where the shares are currently trading.
The upgrade to an Outperformer style rating points to increased confidence in the company’s ability to execute on its plans and convert its asset base into earnings and cash flow.
Some bullish analysts are linking their more positive stance to higher gold price assumptions, which, if sustained, can support stronger revenue and potentially lift margins.
Multiple research shops moving price targets higher in a short time window suggests growing conviction that the current valuation does not fully reflect the company’s medium term earnings potential.

Bearish Takeaways

The earlier cut in a major firm’s price target to 4,580 GBp shows there is still caution around execution risk and how sensitive the equity value is to changes in inputs such as discount rates and P/E assumptions.
Even with higher targets elsewhere, the presence of a lower target highlights disagreement on what a reasonable valuation range should be, which can add volatility if expectations are not met.
Rating language that stays positive while trimming a target signals that some bearish analysts see the story as attractive, but with more limited upside if operational or market conditions do not move in the company’s favor.
The mix of raised and reduced targets underlines that investors need to pay close attention to how factors like gold prices, cost control, and project delivery feed into future earnings and justify current or higher multiples.

What's in the News

Endeavour Mining completed a share buyback program announced on 20 March 2025, repurchasing a total of 1,500,000 shares, or 0.62% of shares, for US$45 million, including 100,000 shares, or 0.04%, for US$2.5 million between 1 October and 31 December 2025 (Key Developments).
The company declared a second half 2025 dividend of US$200 million, or about US$0.83 per share, payable on 14 April 2026 to shareholders of record on 13 March 2026. This brings the FY 2025 dividend to a record US$350 million, or about US$1.45 per share, including US$125 million of supplemental dividends above the US$225 million minimum commitment (Key Developments).
Endeavour Mining issued FY 2026 production guidance of 1,090 to 1,265 koz, described as in line with FY 2025 production of 1,209 koz. Management noted higher expected output at Sabodala Massawa and lower expected output at Houndé and Lafigué as those mines focus on phased stripping activity (Key Developments).
The company set FY 2026 all in sustaining cost guidance at US$1,600 to US$1,800 per ounce, described as consistent with AISC levels in the latter part of FY 2025. Higher AISC is anticipated at several mines and lower AISC at Mana, tied to changes in stripping activity, grades, royalties, and sustaining capital (Key Developments).
For Q4 2025, Endeavour Mining reported unaudited preliminary production of 298 koz and AISC of about US$1,650 per ounce, with FY 2025 unaudited preliminary production of 1,209 koz and AISC of US$1,435 per ounce compared with FY 2024 production of 1,103 koz and AISC of US$1,218 per ounce (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: CA$94.48, up slightly from CA$92.48, reflecting a modest increase in the modeled equity value.
Discount Rate: 8.29%, down slightly from 8.32%, indicating a small reduction in the required return assumption.
Revenue Growth: 13.17%, up from 11.16%, pointing to higher expected top line expansion in the updated model.
Net Profit Margin: 31.85%, down modestly from 32.70%, suggesting a slightly leaner earnings profile on each $ of revenue.
Future P/E: 11.38x, marginally lower than 11.40x, showing a very small adjustment to the valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

Operational optimization, new projects, and exploration are set to boost production, margins, and overall earnings growth in a favorable gold market environment.
Cost control and strong cash flow support shareholder returns and financial flexibility, positioning Endeavour for sector outperformance despite inflationary pressures.
Heavy regional exposure, reserve quality declines, higher regulatory costs, and working capital risks threaten profitability and cash flow, while sensitivity to gold prices poses ongoing strategic challenges.

Catalysts

About Endeavour Mining

Operates as a multi-asset gold producer in West Africa.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Sustained global inflation and rising geopolitical uncertainty continue to boost gold's appeal as a safe haven, creating a supportive environment for higher gold prices; Endeavour's strong leverage to these trends positions it for revenue and earnings growth as the underlying commodity price remains robust.
The comprehensive optimization and technical review of Sabodala-Massawa, coupled with improved recoveries and ongoing underground expansion studies, is expected to drive higher production volumes and grades toward a 350,000 oz/year run rate in the medium to long term, supporting expanded revenue and net margin growth.
The Assafou Tier 1 project and continued near-mine/brownfield exploration success (at sites like Ity and Sabodala) are advancing on schedule, likely to deliver significant low-cost production additions over the next several years, which should lift both total output and EBITDA margins.
Systematic cost control, productivity initiatives, and first-quartile all-in sustaining costs ensure Endeavour remains resilient to sector-wide cost inflation, enabling it to maintain or expand net margins relative to peers even as input and regulatory costs trend higher.
Strong free cash flow, an improving balance sheet, and prioritization of supplemental shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks) provide a platform for improved return on equity and EPS, as well as greater flexibility to fund growth projects organically-factors that, if currently undervalued, could catalyze future upward re-rating.

Endeavour Mining Earnings and Revenue Growth

Endeavour Mining Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Endeavour Mining's revenue will decrease by 3.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 6.2% today to 18.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $595.3 million (and earnings per share of $4.2) by about September 2028, up from $229.9 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $1.3 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $459.9 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 38.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the CA Metals and Mining industry at 18.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.09% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.56%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Endeavour Mining Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Endeavour Mining's operational focus is highly concentrated in West Africa, exposing the company to persistent geopolitical, regulatory, and security risks; disruptions in the region (such as government instability, tax/royalty regime changes, or local unrest) could cause production halts or increased costs, negatively affecting revenue stability and earnings.
Depletion of high-grade reserves at key mines (e.g., Houndé, Ity, Sabodala-Massawa) means Endeavour may have to rely increasingly on lower-grade, higher-cost ore, putting downward pressure on margins and overall profitability unless exploration delivers substantial new high-grade reserves.
Structural increases in royalty rates (such as the proposed 2% royalty hike in Côte d'Ivoire) and escalating environmental or ESG compliance costs are likely to structurally raise Endeavour's all-in sustaining costs, which could erode net margins and compress earnings, especially if gold prices plateau or fall.
The company's large and growing VAT receivables, especially in Burkina Faso, represent a long-standing working capital risk; delays or inability to recover these receivables hamper cash flow conversion, potentially constraining liquidity and shareholder returns during periods of high capital expenditure.
Endeavour's long-term cash flow and valuation remain highly sensitive to global gold price trends; secular headwinds, such as increased adoption of digital/cashless financial systems and investor pivot toward battery or technology metals, could reduce long-term gold demand and price support, ultimately challenging revenue and free cash flow resilience.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$53.683 for Endeavour Mining based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$63.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$37.5.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.3 billion, earnings will come to $595.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.6%.
Given the current share price of CA$50.66, the analyst price target of CA$53.68 is 5.6% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.