Last Update 07 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 0.89%

RCI.B: Sustainable Pricing And Higher Future P/E Will Support Upside

Analysts have nudged their price targets on Rogers Communications higher, reflecting revised assumptions for slightly lower revenue growth and profit margins. This is offset by a modestly higher fair value estimate of about $59.87 and a higher future P/E multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research activity has been clustered around higher price targets for Rogers Communications, with several bullish analysts adjusting their models while keeping ratings broadly neutral. For you as an investor, the key story here is how these shifts reflect changing views on execution, pricing power, and what a fair valuation might look like.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts have raised price targets in both Canadian dollars and US dollars, suggesting they see more headroom in the share price relative to their prior assumptions, even as they factor in slightly lower revenue growth and margins.
Some research points to company pricing as a positive, with one major broker stating that pricing improvement appears sustainable, which they see as supportive for earnings quality and justifying a higher fair value range.
Target hikes clustered around the mid C$50s, such as the move to C$58, indicate that bullish analysts are comfortable with a higher P/E multiple, provided the company can maintain its current operating profile.
Following the Q3 report, at least one large firm raised its US dollar target to $36 from $33, framing Rogers as reasonably valued for investors who are comfortable with an Equal Weight type risk and return trade off.

Bearish Takeaways

Even with higher targets, several analysts are sticking with middle of the road ratings like Sector Perform or Equal Weight, which signals that they see a balanced risk and reward rather than a clear cut opportunity.
The research flow ties target increases to updated modeling assumptions rather than to any major shift in company outlook, which may limit how far some analysts are willing to stretch valuation multiples from here.
The focus on modest target moves, for example from C$57.75 to C$58, suggests that more cautious analysts view the upside as incremental, with execution and margin delivery still key to supporting the current fair value band.
References to sustainable pricing are framed as an observation rather than a strong conviction call, which may indicate that bearish analysts want more consistent evidence over future quarters before assigning materially higher values.

What's in the News

Rogers issued earnings guidance for full year 2026, expecting total service revenue to be in a range that reflects a 3% to 5% change, giving you a sense of how management is framing the next year of operations. (Corporate guidance)
The company launched Amazon Luna on Rogers Xfinity, adding cloud gaming to its entertainment platform so customers with Amazon Prime or Luna Premium can stream more than 100 games directly on eligible devices without a console. (Product announcement)
Rogers introduced Rogers Satellite, a new service that supports popular apps like WhatsApp, Google Maps, AccuWeather, X and CalTopo in areas without traditional cell coverage, and extended satellite to mobile connectivity to IoT businesses across remote Canadian regions. (Product announcement)
Rogers Satellite pricing was outlined at $15 per month for Canadians, with select Rogers customers getting promotional access at no additional cost and beta trial participants receiving a $5 per month discount for the first 12 months, and future expansion planned to include data, voice and 911 voice services. (Product announcement)
Through the EORN Cell Gap Project, Rogers 5G mobile services are now available in 34 more eastern Ontario communities, supported by 34 completed new cell towers and upgrades to 311 existing sites, with a total of around 332 new towers planned for the region. (Product announcement)

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly, moving from about CA$59.34 to about CA$59.87 per share.
The discount rate has inched higher, going from 6.15% to about 6.30%, which generally implies a slightly higher required return.
Revenue growth has been revised down, shifting from about 3.90% to about 2.53% in the updated assumptions.
The net profit margin has been trimmed, moving from roughly 11.43% to about 10.39% in the latest model.
The future P/E has increased, rising from about 14.38x to around 16.15x, indicating a higher valuation multiple in the updated view.

Expanded rural wireless coverage and advanced infrastructure investments position Rogers to capture new subscribers and drive growth through innovative services and connectivity.
Cost efficiencies, disciplined deleveraging, and potential sports/media asset monetization support higher earnings, margin improvement, and investment capacity for future opportunities.
Regulatory risks, market saturation, ARPU pressure, high leverage, and ongoing cord-cutting threaten Rogers' long-term revenue growth, profitability, and financial flexibility.

Catalysts

About Rogers Communications

Operates as a communications and media company in Canada.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Rogers' launch of satellite-to-mobile texting, with a road map to add voice and data services, greatly expands their wireless coverage across rural and remote regions, positioning the company to benefit from rising demand for reliable connectivity and to tap into new subscriber growth opportunities; this is likely to impact future revenue and ARPU positively.
The continued deployment and expansion of 5G and Wi-Fi 7 infrastructure, along with the introduction of advanced services like fixed wireless internet and bundled offerings, allows Rogers to capitalize on increasing mobile data consumption and connected device proliferation, supporting both subscriber additions and higher margins in future periods.
Successful cost efficiency initiatives in Cable-encompassing network integration, reduced capital intensity, and improvements in customer care-are structurally lowering expenses and supporting higher EBITDA margins, setting a foundation for more robust earnings growth as the company scales.
The near-term integration and longer-term monetization of sports/media assets, notably MLSE, remains a significant hidden value driver; proactive moves to surface or monetize these assets could unlock value for shareholders and bolster net earnings.
A disciplined approach to delevering following the Shaw acquisition, demonstrated by the accelerated reduction in leverage and improved free cash flow, enhances Rogers' capacity to invest in future growth trends (like AI-driven services and digital infrastructure) while protecting net margins.

Rogers Communications Earnings and Revenue Growth

Rogers Communications Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Rogers Communications's revenue will grow by 4.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.3% today to 10.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach CA$2.4 billion (and earnings per share of CA$4.61) by about September 2028, up from CA$1.5 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as CA$1.8 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.4x on those 2028 earnings, down from 17.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the CA Wireless Telecom industry at 17.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.08% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.91%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Rogers Communications Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Regulatory uncertainty-particularly the CRTC's recent decision to mandate access for competitors on large networks and the possibility of further government intervention-poses long-term risks of reduced pricing power and potential cuts to capital investment, which could compress revenues and margins.
Slowing growth in wireless subscriber net adds-driven by reduced immigration and overall market maturation-signals that the Canadian wireless market is approaching saturation, limiting Rogers' ability to drive substantial top-line revenue expansion in the long term.
Ongoing ARPU (average revenue per user) pressures, partially caused by intense promotional activity, competitive pricing, the proliferation of multi-line discounts, and declining roaming revenues, threaten to suppress service revenue growth and net earnings.
High leverage following recent acquisitions (Shaw and MLSE), even after progress on delevering, raises long-term refinancing and interest rate risks that could constrain financial flexibility and weigh on net margins if organic growth and cost synergies do not fully materialize.
Secular trends of cord-cutting and persistent video subscriber losses in the Cable segment, as well as shifting media consumption patterns to OTT platforms, continue to erode legacy revenues, challenging the sustainability of both Cable and Media profitability and overall EBITDA expansion.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$55.441 for Rogers Communications based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$71.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$40.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be CA$23.4 billion, earnings will come to CA$2.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.9%.
Given the current share price of CA$49.27, the analyst price target of CA$55.44 is 11.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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