Last Update 05 Jan 26

XPRO: Future Returns Will Balance Strong Execution With Muted 2026 Outlook

Analysts have modestly increased their price target on Expro Group Holdings to $16 from $15, citing a solid Q3 beat that offsets concerns around somewhat muted preliminary 2026 guidance.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the upward revision in the price target to $16 as a reflection of improving earnings power and a stronger risk reward profile after the Q3 beat.
The solid Q3 performance is seen as evidence of robust execution, supporting confidence in management's ability to deliver on near term growth initiatives.
Analysts highlight that current valuation still appears reasonable relative to expected cash flow growth, which leaves room for multiple expansion if performance continues to outpace expectations.
Some bullish analysts expect that as visibility on the 2026 trajectory improves, the market will begin to price in a more durable growth runway, which would support share price appreciation over time.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to the somewhat muted preliminary 2026 guidance as a constraint on long term growth expectations, which may limit upside to valuation in the near term.
The stock's underperformance following the Q3 beat is cited as a sign that investors remain cautious on the medium term outlook and are less willing to reward execution without clearer acceleration in growth.
There is concern that if guidance is not revised higher over time, earnings estimates may already reflect much of the near term improvement, which could cap further upside to the price target.
Some bearish analysts note that continued uncertainty around the pace of growth into 2026 could make the shares more vulnerable to setbacks in execution or weaker sector conditions.

What's in the News

Completed share repurchase of 7.2 million shares, or 6.33 percent of shares outstanding, for a total of $87.26 million under the buyback program announced June 16, 2022, including 2.1 million shares repurchased in Q3 2025 for $25.05 million (Key Developments).
Executed the first deployment of its new ELITE Composition service on an exploration well in Cyprus. The operation delivered laboratory standard fluid measurements at the rig site in about eight hours and significantly reduced reliance on months long offsite lab processing (Key Developments).
The combined use of TurboPVT, ELITE Composition, and contaminant analysis at the Cyprus well enabled rapid validation of sampling runs, in situ calibration of wireline logs, and more dynamic reservoir modelling to support future East Mediterranean development plans (Key Developments).
The successful ELITE Composition deployment highlights Expro's strategy of bringing advanced laboratory grade technologies directly to the wellsite to cut project risk, shorten planning cycles, and improve operator decision making (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at $14.40 per share, indicating no adjustment to the intrinsic value assessment.
Discount Rate: Risen slightly from 7.21 percent to 7.23 percent, reflecting a marginal increase in the required return assumption.
Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged at roughly 11.48 percent, with only a negligible downward adjustment in the long term growth outlook.
Net Profit Margin: Stable at about 6.50 percent, showing no meaningful revision to long term profitability expectations.
Future P/E: Unchanged at 18.02x, indicating no revision to the valuation multiple on forward earnings.

Strong global demand and energy security trends support Expro's growing backlog, market position, and forward revenue visibility in key offshore and international sectors.
Technology advancement, portfolio diversification, and operational initiatives drive sustainable margin expansion, resilient revenue streams, and improved profitability versus competitors.
Exposure to geopolitical, regulatory, and energy transition risks threatens revenue growth, margin stability, and long-term demand for offshore oilfield services.

Catalysts

About Expro Group Holdings

Provides energy services in North and Latin America, Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Expro's robust order intake and expanding backlog are supported by ongoing growth in global energy demand, particularly in international and offshore markets, positioning the company for steady long-term revenue growth as multiyear deepwater and international projects progress.
Increased geopolitical tensions and the global push for energy security and supply diversification are driving sustained investments in well construction, flow management, and related services where Expro holds leading technological positions, supporting higher forward revenue visibility and backlog.
Accelerated development and deployment of advanced digital and automation technologies, such as remote operations and AI-driven tools, are enhancing operational efficiency and margin expansion, creating potential for further net margin and earnings improvements as adoption grows.
Realization of synergies from recent M&A, continuous operational cost initiatives (Drive25), and a scalable integrated services portfolio are enabling sustainable EBITDA margin expansion and improved free cash flow generation, positioning Expro to outperform peers on profitability.
Diversification into production optimization, well integrity, and technology-enabled brownfield services aligns with the industry's prolonged focus on asset integrity and operational efficiency, supporting more resilient recurring revenue streams and higher margin contributions.

Expro Group Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

Expro Group Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Expro Group Holdings's revenue will decrease by 0.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.3% today to 4.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $83.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.72) by about August 2028, up from $71.3 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from 17.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Energy Services industry at 13.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 4.51% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.72%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Expro Group Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's heavy reliance on international and offshore oil and gas projects exposes it to heightened geopolitical, regulatory, and operational risks in volatile regions, which could drive up costs, disrupt operations, and negatively impact net margins and earnings over time.
Long-term secular shifts toward decarbonization, net-zero targets, and increased global adoption of renewables threaten to structurally reduce demand for oilfield services, potentially shrinking Expro's addressable market and eroding future revenue growth.
Customer caution and a moderated pace of new deepwater and ultra-deepwater project approvals, combined with deferment in short-cycle (OpEx-related) activity, indicate potential stagnation or contraction in upstream spending, which could constrain revenue growth and pressure earnings.
High customer concentration with supermajors and national oil companies (NOCs) means future revenues are vulnerable to contract renewals, pricing pressures, and shifting capital allocation as customers pursue energy transition strategies, impacting long-term revenue stability.
Growing ESG and climate-related disclosure requirements, as well as stricter global environmental regulations and well abandonment liabilities, may lead to higher compliance and operational costs, resulting in downward pressure on net margins and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $12.2 for Expro Group Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $15.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.7 billion, earnings will come to $83.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of $10.84, the analyst price target of $12.2 is 11.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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