Last Update 20 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 37%

CRN: Revised Commodity Assumptions And Higher Future P/E Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts now see Coronado Global Resources' fair value closer to A$0.37 per share, compared with the prior A$0.27. This reflects updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple following recent commodity price deck revisions and changing views on the stock's outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the revised A$0.37 fair value as supported by refreshed commodity assumptions, which they view as better aligned with the updated price deck across key metals and coal benchmarks.
The use of a higher future P/E multiple in some models signals confidence that the market could be willing to pay more for Coronado Global Resources' earnings if the company executes on its plans and commodity prices hold near current assumptions.
Updated revenue and margin assumptions reflect the view that the business can support the new valuation framework without relying on aggressive growth forecasts.
For investors, the tighter cluster of price targets around A$0.37 offers a clearer reference point to compare the current share price with analysts' implied valuation.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have lowered price targets from prior levels such as A$0.40 to A$0.37, which signals less enthusiasm around upside potential relative to earlier expectations.
The Hold rating tied to the A$0.37 target suggests some remain cautious on the risk and reward balance, even after updating commodity price assumptions.
Adjustments to longer term commodity forecasts for copper, aluminum, PLV met coal, Newcastle thermal coal and gold highlight that Coronado Global Resources' valuation is sensitive to pricing inputs that could change again.
Investors should be aware that shifts in the broader Australia metals and mining coverage, including target changes across peers, can influence sentiment toward Coronado Global Resources even if company specific execution does not change.

What's in the News

Reported unaudited production results for the quarter ended 31 December 2025, with ROM production at 6.9 Mt and saleable production at 4.3 Mt, compared with 7.4 Mt and 4.5 Mt respectively in the previous quarter (company announcement).
For the year to date ended 31 December 2025, ROM production was 27.2 Mt and saleable production was 16.0 Mt, versus 26.6 Mt and 15.3 Mt a year earlier (company announcement).
Announced a fatal incident at the Mammoth Underground Mine on 2 January 2026, with operations at the underground mine remaining suspended while authorities investigate the cause (company announcement).
Idled operations at the Curragh North and Curragh South open cut mines for 24 hours following the incident, with those sites now back to normal operations in a staged approach (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: A$0.27 to A$0.37, representing a large upward reset in the modelled per share estimate.
Discount Rate: 11.50% to 11.48%, reflecting a very small adjustment in the required return used in the valuation.
Revenue Growth: 16.50% to 8.70%, indicating a significant reduction in the assumed pace of future $ revenue expansion.
Net Profit Margin: 5.13% to 3.93%, showing a reduction in the projected $ earnings retained from each dollar of sales.
Future P/E: 2.64x to 6.22x, indicating a large increase in the multiple applied to forward earnings expectations.

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Key Takeaways

Market confidence hinges on expansion projects, operational upgrades, and global steel demand driving sustainable growth, possibly overlooking execution risks and industry headwinds.
Investor expectations rely on supply constraints and financial strength protecting earnings and returns, while underestimating potential decarbonization impacts and future cost pressures.
Timely growth projects, cost efficiencies, strong liquidity, market resilience, and flexible operations position the company for stable or growing returns despite industry volatility.

Catalysts

About Coronado Global Resources

Produces, markets, and exports metallurgical coal in Asia, North America, South America, Europe, Australia, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The market is pricing in expectations that Coronado's recent and ongoing expansion projects (Mammoth and Buchanan) will deliver substantial, sustained production increases in the second half and beyond, leading to outsized revenue and earnings growth, possibly overestimating the speed and durability of these volume gains.
Investor optimism appears to be grounded in the belief that global steel demand-especially from India and other emerging markets-will reaccelerate, providing strong support for future export volumes and sales prices, thus boosting revenue and free cash flow.
There seems to be an assumption that Coronado's continued cost reductions, operational efficiency programs, and technological upgrades (such as expanded dragline use and automation) will permanently improve net margins, despite sector-wide inflationary pressures and potential reversals as underlying cost levers are exhausted.
The share price may reflect a view that supply constraints in high-quality metallurgical coal, due to industry underinvestment and stricter ESG policies, will drive structurally higher coal prices and enhance Coronado's long-term earnings power, although this discounts the risk of demand destruction from decarbonization efforts.
Investors appear to expect that Coronado's strengthened balance sheet, enhanced liquidity from the ABL and Stanwell arrangements, and conservative capital management will insulate the company from commodity cycle downturns, supporting stable or rising shareholder returns even amidst ongoing market volatility.

Coronado Global Resources Earnings and Revenue Growth

Coronado Global Resources Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Coronado Global Resources's revenue will grow by 11.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -14.5% today to 1.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $55.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.03) by about September 2028, up from $-297.5 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $112.6 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $21.9 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 5.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -1.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the AU Metals and Mining industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.98%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Coronado Global Resources Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Major growth projects (Mammoth and Buchanan) have been completed on time and on budget, and are now ramping up, which is expected to deliver a material increase in production volumes and incremental run rate capacity in the near term; this positions the company for higher sales volumes and improved revenue even in challenging market environments.
Sustainable cost reductions and operational efficiencies (including moving to low-cost, dragline-led operations and idling higher-cost mines) have reduced unit mining costs below guidance levels and are anticipated to further improve as expansion tonnages ramp up, enhancing EBITDA margins and supporting resilient net earnings.
Strong liquidity management and newly secured facilities (such as the Oaktree ABL and the Stanwell agreement) have extended the company's liquidity runway, providing flexibility for working capital needs and reducing financial risk, which reduces the likelihood of severe earnings or solvency pressure.
Positive long-term outlook for seaborne metallurgical coal, supported by ongoing global infrastructure and steel demand (with particular momentum in India and some stabilization in China), combined with signs of supply rationalization and customer interest in new products, underpin potential for revenue stability or growth in coming years.
The ability to flex production in response to market conditions, strategic portfolio management (including openness to divestments or stakes sales if needed), and sustained focus on capital discipline provide Coronado with tools to manage downcycle risks and protect, or even grow, shareholder returns across commodity cycles.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of A$0.225 for Coronado Global Resources based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$0.3, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$0.13.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.9 billion, earnings will come to $55.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 5.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.0%.
Given the current share price of A$0.32, the analyst price target of A$0.22 is 44.6% lower. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to improve, they seem to believe the market's expectations are too high.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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