Last Update 25 Jan 26

DB1: Future Upside Will Be Driven By Allfunds Deal Potential

Analysts have lowered their price targets on Deutsche Börse by around €6, reflecting slightly softer expectations for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples in their updated models.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates on Deutsche Börse reflect a mixed but generally balanced view, with modest changes in price targets rather than sweeping shifts in conviction. For you as an investor, the key signal is that analysts are fine tuning their models on valuation, not rewriting the story entirely.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts who raised the price target to €246 see enough support in the current business profile to justify a slightly higher valuation, even after factoring in more cautious assumptions elsewhere in the market.
The Neutral rating that accompanies the higher €246 target suggests these analysts view the shares as reasonably aligned with fundamentals, without flagging major execution risks at this stage.
The fact that the most recent move from JPMorgan was an upward adjustment, even if small, indicates some confidence that the company can sustain its positioning in core businesses without requiring aggressive growth assumptions.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts who trimmed price targets by around €6, including the move to €228, are signaling that they see less room for multiple expansion, which directly affects upside potential from today’s price levels.
The Sector Perform style stance around the €228 target reflects a view that Deutsche Börse may track its peer group rather than significantly outperform, which limits the argument for paying a premium P/E.
Lowered targets from several houses point to concern that growth and margins might not support earlier, more optimistic valuation assumptions, so they are bringing their models closer to what they see as a more cautious execution path.
With target changes clustering within a relatively tight range, bearish analysts appear wary of overpaying for quality, even if they are not calling for a sharp rerating of the shares.

What's in the News

Kraken and Deutsche Börse Group agreed a partnership to offer unified access to traditional and digital asset markets, covering trading, custody, settlement, collateral management and tokenized assets, with an initial focus on integrating Kraken with 360T for access to bank grade FX liquidity (Key Developments).
The partnership plans to use Kraken Embed and Deutsche Börse Group subsidiaries, including Clearstream, Crypto Finance and 360X, to support white label crypto services for banks and fintechs and to distribute tokenized securities and xStocks across both groups' client networks, subject to regulatory approvals (Key Developments).
Deutsche Börse Group confirmed exclusive discussions with Allfunds Group regarding a possible acquisition of the entire share capital of Allfunds, based on a non binding proposal that currently implies total consideration of €8.80 per Allfunds share, split between cash and new Deutsche Börse Group shares plus specified dividends, with no certainty that a transaction will proceed (Key Developments).
The potential Allfunds combination, if agreed, is expected to be implemented via a UK scheme of arrangement and would be subject to customary due diligence, board approvals and regulatory clearances, with further announcements to follow only if appropriate (Key Developments).
Between July 1, 2025 and October 24, 2025, Deutsche Börse completed share repurchases totaling €441 million under the buyback program announced on March 3, 2025, including €127.7 million in the most recent tranche (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Model fair value estimate is unchanged at €257.71, indicating no change in the central value reference point.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has eased slightly from 6.25% to 6.23%, reflecting a very small adjustment in the required return used in the model.
Revenue Growth: The assumed revenue path now reflects a 1.28% decline instead of a 1.20% decline, indicating a marginally softer top line profile in the updated case.
Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin assumption has been adjusted from 35.12% to 34.90%, indicating slightly lower expected profitability on each euro of revenue.
Future P/E: The future P/E multiple used in the model has increased from 22.49x to 22.68x, which partially offsets the more cautious growth and margin assumptions.

Expansion in technologically advanced market infrastructure and data services is strengthening revenue stability, margins, and diversification beyond trading fees.
Regulatory changes and policy initiatives are driving greater market activity and favoring Deutsche Börse's integrated, scalable platforms for sustained long-term growth.
Revenue growth is threatened by volatile market sentiment, regulatory and cost pressures, and leadership transition risks, potentially impacting margins and strategic execution.

Catalysts

About Deutsche Börse

Operates as an international exchange organization in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Sustained growth in cross-border trading volumes and investor inflows-driven by the ongoing integration of European capital markets and favorable macroeconomic momentum-are expected to increase transaction-based revenues and support long-term revenue growth for Deutsche Börse.
The rising adoption of passive investment vehicles (such as ETFs) and the growth in algorithmic trading are fueling demand for efficient, technologically advanced market infrastructure-areas in which Deutsche Börse has shown leadership through continued platform investments-translate to higher trading, clearing, and recurring data revenues and improved operating leverage.
Regulatory initiatives, particularly the introduction of active account rules, central clearing mandates, and the shift toward greater transparency and risk mitigation, will push more post-trade and data-related activities onto central market infrastructure providers, supporting recurring, higher-margin revenues and improved net margins for Deutsche Börse over time.
Ongoing expansion into high-margin, recurring software and data services (via SimCorp, Axioma, and ISS STOXX) and the growth of SaaS/ARR revenues-especially outside the core European region-will diversify and stabilize group earnings, reduce reliance on cyclical trading fees, and support elevated net margins.
Major European and German policy initiatives (such as the "Made for Germany" program and the push for an EU savings and investment union) are expected to drive higher equity and debt market participation, stimulate IPO activity, and increase fund flows, providing a multi-year tailwind to Deutsche Börse's revenue base and long-term earnings.

Deutsche Börse Earnings and Revenue Growth

Deutsche Börse Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Deutsche Börse's revenue will decrease by 1.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 27.5% today to 34.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €2.4 billion (and earnings per share of €13.03) by about September 2028, up from €2.0 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from 22.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Capital Markets industry at 16.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.23% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.14%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Deutsche Börse Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Deutsche Börse's near-term revenue growth is being buoyed by recent inflows into European assets and positive market sentiment toward European equities, but this trend is dependent on sustained investor confidence and favorable macroeconomic conditions; any reversal or stagnation in European asset flows could lead to lower trading volumes and impact both revenue and net margins.
The ISS STOXX segment, covering ESG and index services, is facing longer sales cycles and regulatory delays, particularly in the U.S.; ongoing regulatory uncertainty and "challenging" environment in ESG could slow or stall expected growth in recurring revenue streams and compress net margins for this business line.
A significant portion of revenue growth in derivatives and clearing is currently supported by regulatory-driven onboarding (e.g., active account rules) and incentive-based client activation; if clients only engage minimally to meet regulatory requirements-or fail to adopt Eurex for larger portions of their business-expected volume growth and associated high-margin revenue could fall short of targets.
The company is experiencing cost pressures from inflation, share-based compensation, and ongoing strategic investments, potentially offsetting operating leverage; if inflation or compensation costs outpace anticipated operating cost growth, net margins and profitability could be eroded.
Leadership transition risk is heightened by the CFO change after 15 years of continuity, coinciding with ongoing strategic projects (such as the ISS STOXX dual track/IPO, technology investments, and potential banking license changes); execution risk during this period could lead to disruptions, affecting financial performance and revenue visibility over the medium to long term.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €269.929 for Deutsche Börse based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €309.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €225.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €6.9 billion, earnings will come to €2.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.1%.
Given the current share price of €247.0, the analyst price target of €269.93 is 8.5% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

DB1: Neutral Ratings And Stable Profit Outlook Will Sustain Market Confidence