Last Update 18 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 5.66%

TMV: Cost Discipline And Cash Generation Will Support Future Earnings Re Rating

Analysts have trimmed their TeamViewer price targets by around €0.40 to €3 in response to updated assumptions for slightly lower revenue growth, a marginally higher discount rate, and modestly adjusted profit margin and P/E expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts appear to see the recent price target trimming as fine tuning rather than a major reset, with adjustments of around €0.40 that keep their broader view of the business model intact.
The use of a slightly higher discount rate in updated models suggests that some analysts still see the cash flow profile as resilient enough to justify a valuation that remains supported even under more conservative assumptions.
Where profit margin and P/E expectations have been modestly adjusted, bullish analysts seem to be focusing on execution improvements and profitability discipline rather than relying purely on higher revenue growth to support their targets.
The relatively contained move in targets, such as a change from €8.35 to €8.25, indicates that bullish analysts are refining their numbers while continuing to see a case for the shares based on current earnings power and cash generation potential.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are using the lower price targets, including a cut of €3 in one case, to flag concern that prior expectations for revenue growth may have been too optimistic for current conditions.
The shift to a marginally higher discount rate points to increased caution around risk, which directly pressures valuation in discounted cash flow style models and can justify a lower target price even without major estimate changes.
Modest adjustments to profit margin and P/E assumptions suggest some analysts see less room for multiple expansion and are more focused on the risk that execution on costs or pricing could fall short of earlier expectations.
Where an Equal Weight stance is maintained alongside a slightly lower target, bearish analysts are effectively signaling a more balanced risk or reward profile, with less conviction that current valuation leaves a wide margin of safety.

What's in the News

TeamViewer entered a new partnership with Thrive to integrate its Digital Employee Experience, or DEX, offering into Thrive's NextGen managed services platform. The platform is built on ServiceNow and combines automation, AI, security operations, and network operations into one foundation (Key Developments).
The integration is intended to give Thrive customers deeper insight into endpoint performance and employee experience, with the aim of spotting emerging IT issues earlier and acting before they affect end users. This can reduce avoidable support demand and support more stable IT operations (Key Developments).
By embedding TeamViewer DEX into ServiceNow workflows, Thrive plans to introduce more automation and remediation directly into customer environments, with a focus on continuous optimization rather than reactive, ticket based support (Key Developments).
The collaboration positions IT teams using Thrive's platform to seek more predictable, efficient digital workplace performance. It also aligns with a view of IT as a contributor to business outcomes rather than only a cost center (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed from €10.48 to €9.89, a reduction of about 5.7% in the modelled estimate.
Discount Rate: raised from 8.74% to 9.37%, reflecting a slightly higher required return in the updated assumptions.
Revenue Growth: revised from 6.83% to 3.97%, indicating a smaller expected growth rate in the model.
Net Profit Margin: adjusted from 19.67% to 20.32%, representing a modest uplift in assumed profitability.
Future P/E: moved from 12.22x to 11.90x, indicating a small reduction in the valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

Expansion into AI, digital workplace management, and industrial partnerships positions TeamViewer for strong, recurring growth through increased upselling and deeper enterprise integration.
Efficient integration of acquisitions and platform consolidation are boosting margins and operational efficiency, while enhancing contract stability and long-term earning potential.
Heavy reliance on struggling SMBs, intensifying competition, public sector pressures, and slow product innovation threaten TeamViewer's growth, pricing power, and long-term profitability.

Catalysts

About TeamViewer

Develops and distributes remote connectivity solutions worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The ongoing digital transformation and persistent shift toward hybrid and remote work are driving consistent demand among enterprises for secure remote access, device management, and IT support tools-TeamViewer's integration and expansion of digital workplace management (e.g., new DEX/TeamViewer ONE offerings) position the company to benefit from these trends and fuel revenue growth through cross-sell and upsell opportunities.
Rapid growth in connected devices, industrial IoT, and expanded enterprise IT complexity is creating new addressable markets for proactive device management and automation; TeamViewer's investments in AI, integration of 1E technology, and deeper move into endpoint-based offerings set the stage for both increased average contract value and expansion of ARR in coming years.
The recent launch and go-to-market ramp of DEX Essentials, aimed at both SMB and enterprise segments with per-endpoint pricing, opens a significant new upsell stream for TeamViewer's large existing user base, which is likely to accelerate both revenue and margin expansion as adoption grows.
Strategic partnerships, tool integration (e.g., SAP, Siemens), and platform consolidation (TeamViewer ONE) make TeamViewer an increasingly embedded component of enterprise and industrial workflows, supporting higher multiyear contract rates, improved retention, and greater earnings stability through predictable, recurring SaaS revenue.
Post-merger integration with 1E has progressed faster than planned, unlocking operational synergies, streamlining processes, and improving sales/marketing efficiency, which are already driving EBITDA margin gains (now ~44%), positioning net margins for further improvement as top-line growth resumes.

TeamViewer Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming TeamViewer's revenue will grow by 9.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 17.8% today to 21.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €199.5 million (and earnings per share of €1.32) by about September 2028, up from €126.4 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €240.7 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €155.7 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.5x on those 2028 earnings, up from 12.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the DE Software industry at 33.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.92% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.87%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

TeamViewer Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's ongoing dependence on the volatile SMB segment, which is experiencing higher churn, subdued new customer inflow, and modest ARR growth (only 1% YoY), poses a risk to long-term revenue growth and could compress net margins if the macroeconomic headwinds or price sensitivity among small businesses persist or intensify.
Heightened competition and commoditization in remote access and digital workplace solutions, especially as larger tech companies and integrated platforms target "tool consolidation," may erode TeamViewer's pricing power and market share, leading to stagnant or declining revenues and lower earnings over time.
Exposure to U.S. federal sector challenges-such as governmental budget cuts, political uncertainties, and the need to offer price concessions or rescoping to retain major public contracts-suggests pressurized sales pipelines and margin risk for enterprise deals, especially for newly integrated 1E offerings, threatening overall profitability.
Increasing susceptibility to macroeconomic cycles and regional market volatility (e.g., the U.S. market's uncertain outlook and China's ongoing challenges) could undermine consistent revenue growth and earnings predictability, as TeamViewer's enterprise and SMB performance is highly regionally imbalanced.
The company's slow shift toward innovative, differentiated offerings-illustrated by only early traction on new products like DEX Essentials and TeamViewer ONE, and a need to drive ASP and cross-selling through UI changes and in-product promotions-highlights the risk that TeamViewer may be outpaced by competitors, limiting future ARR and revenue growth while pressuring long-term financial stability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €15.162 for TeamViewer based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €20.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €11.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €943.2 million, earnings will come to €199.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.9%.
Given the current share price of €9.74, the analyst price target of €15.16 is 35.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Revise TeamViewer Outlook as Valuation and Growth Estimates Adjust Amid New Integrations