Last Update 06 Jan 26

TMV: Cost Controls And Recurring Revenues Will Support Future Earnings Re-Rating

Analysts have trimmed their price target on TeamViewer to €11 from €14, reflecting updated assumptions for the discount rate, margin profile, and future P/E multiples in their models.

Analyst Commentary

Recent commentary reflects a more cautious stance on TeamViewer, with the trimmed price target to €11 indicating reassessment of both execution risks and valuation assumptions. For you as an investor, it highlights a mixed picture where potential remains, but expectations are more muted than before.

Bullish Takeaways

Maintaining a Hold rating alongside a lower price target suggests analysts still see support for the current valuation level rather than a clear case for aggressive downside.
The updated target of €11 implies that, even with more conservative assumptions, analysts still attribute meaningful value to the existing business model and earnings profile.
Adjustments to the margin and P/E inputs indicate analysts are continuing to refine their models, which can help reduce the risk of overly optimistic forecasts embedded in prior targets.

Bearish Takeaways

The reduction from €14 to €11 signals that earlier expectations around profitability and growth are now seen as harder to achieve under current assumptions.
A Hold stance, rather than a more positive rating, points to limited upside in the near term under the revised discount rate, margin, and P/E framework.
The shift in valuation inputs suggests greater caution around execution, with less room in the models for potential setbacks in margins or earnings delivery.
Lowered expectations for future P/E multiples indicate that bullish analysts are less willing to pay a premium for TeamViewer relative to previous views, which can cap price upside if sentiment does not improve.

What's in the News

TeamViewer introduced Tia, an AI-driven intelligent agent within TeamViewer ONE that identifies, diagnoses, and resolves IT issues autonomously across devices and systems, using a multi agent framework focused on performance, connectivity, application support, and account management (Key Developments).
The company launched Agentless Access in its Tensor platform, allowing manufacturers and OEMs to work remotely on PLCs, HMIs, legacy systems, and closed devices without installing software on each endpoint, with zero trust controls and full audit logging for industrial environments (Key Developments).
TeamViewer reported adoption of its AI offering, with more than 270,000 IT support sessions automatically summarized over three months, involving around 10,000 customers using the AI features and reported time savings per ticket and faster issue resolution (Key Developments).
TeamViewer confirmed its full year 2025 revenue guidance in a range of €778m to €797m, noting expectations toward the low end of that band despite an ARR shortfall (Key Developments).
For 2026, the company provided preliminary revenue guidance of €790m to €825m, compared with a previous range of €850m to €870m (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Modelled fair value remains unchanged at €10.48, indicating no shift in the core intrinsic value estimate based on the latest inputs.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has fallen slightly from 8.88% to 8.74%, which modestly reduces the hurdle rate used to value future cash flows.
Revenue Growth: The revenue growth assumption is essentially stable at about 6.83%, with only a very small numerical adjustment in the updated model.
Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin input remains effectively flat at about 19.67%, suggesting no material change in the long run profitability view embedded in the model.
Future P/E: The future P/E multiple has edged down slightly from 12.27x to 12.22x, reflecting a small reduction in the valuation multiple applied to TeamViewer’s earnings.

Expansion into AI, digital workplace management, and industrial partnerships positions TeamViewer for strong, recurring growth through increased upselling and deeper enterprise integration.
Efficient integration of acquisitions and platform consolidation are boosting margins and operational efficiency, while enhancing contract stability and long-term earning potential.
Heavy reliance on struggling SMBs, intensifying competition, public sector pressures, and slow product innovation threaten TeamViewer's growth, pricing power, and long-term profitability.

Catalysts

About TeamViewer

Develops and distributes remote connectivity solutions worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The ongoing digital transformation and persistent shift toward hybrid and remote work are driving consistent demand among enterprises for secure remote access, device management, and IT support tools-TeamViewer's integration and expansion of digital workplace management (e.g., new DEX/TeamViewer ONE offerings) position the company to benefit from these trends and fuel revenue growth through cross-sell and upsell opportunities.
Rapid growth in connected devices, industrial IoT, and expanded enterprise IT complexity is creating new addressable markets for proactive device management and automation; TeamViewer's investments in AI, integration of 1E technology, and deeper move into endpoint-based offerings set the stage for both increased average contract value and expansion of ARR in coming years.
The recent launch and go-to-market ramp of DEX Essentials, aimed at both SMB and enterprise segments with per-endpoint pricing, opens a significant new upsell stream for TeamViewer's large existing user base, which is likely to accelerate both revenue and margin expansion as adoption grows.
Strategic partnerships, tool integration (e.g., SAP, Siemens), and platform consolidation (TeamViewer ONE) make TeamViewer an increasingly embedded component of enterprise and industrial workflows, supporting higher multiyear contract rates, improved retention, and greater earnings stability through predictable, recurring SaaS revenue.
Post-merger integration with 1E has progressed faster than planned, unlocking operational synergies, streamlining processes, and improving sales/marketing efficiency, which are already driving EBITDA margin gains (now ~44%), positioning net margins for further improvement as top-line growth resumes.

TeamViewer Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming TeamViewer's revenue will grow by 9.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 17.8% today to 21.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €199.5 million (and earnings per share of €1.32) by about September 2028, up from €126.4 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €240.7 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €155.7 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.5x on those 2028 earnings, up from 12.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the DE Software industry at 33.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.92% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.87%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

TeamViewer Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's ongoing dependence on the volatile SMB segment, which is experiencing higher churn, subdued new customer inflow, and modest ARR growth (only 1% YoY), poses a risk to long-term revenue growth and could compress net margins if the macroeconomic headwinds or price sensitivity among small businesses persist or intensify.
Heightened competition and commoditization in remote access and digital workplace solutions, especially as larger tech companies and integrated platforms target "tool consolidation," may erode TeamViewer's pricing power and market share, leading to stagnant or declining revenues and lower earnings over time.
Exposure to U.S. federal sector challenges-such as governmental budget cuts, political uncertainties, and the need to offer price concessions or rescoping to retain major public contracts-suggests pressurized sales pipelines and margin risk for enterprise deals, especially for newly integrated 1E offerings, threatening overall profitability.
Increasing susceptibility to macroeconomic cycles and regional market volatility (e.g., the U.S. market's uncertain outlook and China's ongoing challenges) could undermine consistent revenue growth and earnings predictability, as TeamViewer's enterprise and SMB performance is highly regionally imbalanced.
The company's slow shift toward innovative, differentiated offerings-illustrated by only early traction on new products like DEX Essentials and TeamViewer ONE, and a need to drive ASP and cross-selling through UI changes and in-product promotions-highlights the risk that TeamViewer may be outpaced by competitors, limiting future ARR and revenue growth while pressuring long-term financial stability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €15.162 for TeamViewer based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €20.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €11.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €943.2 million, earnings will come to €199.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.9%.
Given the current share price of €9.74, the analyst price target of €15.16 is 35.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Revise TeamViewer Outlook as Valuation and Growth Estimates Adjust Amid New Integrations