Seeking Alpha • Oct 12
JOANN: Digitalization Is Finally Paying Off
Summary
After 75 years in business, Joann bills itself as the nation’s best seller of sewing and fabrics.
I believe that management successfully changed the business from a traditional retailer into a digital shop.
Let’s keep in mind that Joann owns a massive database with many customers, and offers very different purchasing channels. With correct marketing efforts, Joann will likely see sales growth.
JOANN Inc. (JOAN) appears to be receiving a lot of attention after making significant efforts to transform itself into a digital shop. Analysts are expecting an increase in free cash flow. Under my own assumptions that include correct assessment of the database and more suppliers from Asia, I think the fair price is significantly higher than the stock price. I see risks from tariffs to Asian products in the United States and lack of innovation. However, from here, the downside risk in the stock price does seem very limited.
JOANN: From A Traditional Retailer Into A Digital Shop
After 75 years in business, JOANN bills itself as the nation’s best seller of sewing and fabrics. The recent increase in customers is the first thing that seems worth mentioning. Since February 1, 2020, the company got close to 10 million new customers.
Source: Company’s Website
In my view, after the transformation of the company that started in 2016, the numbers are getting better and better. I believe that management successfully changed the business from a traditional retailer into a digital shop. The acceleration of the free cash flow that many analysts out there are expecting is a great reason to review the new business model.
Balance Sheet
As of July 30, 2022, a total of cash and cash equivalents of $21.5 million was reported, with inventories of $749.9 million, other current assets of $78.5 million, and total current assets of $849.9 million. The property, equipment and leasehold improvements were worth $285.5 million in addition to goodwill worth $162 million and intangible assets of $371.5 million. Total assets stand at $2.53 billion. I believe that the company’s numbers in 2022 are a bit better than that in 2021.
Source: 10-Q
With regards to the list of liabilities, JOANN reported a total of accounts payable of $272.3 million, accrued expenses of $140.4 million, and current portion of operating lease liabilities of $159 million. The current portion of long term debt was equal to only $6.8 million in addition to total current liabilities of $587.5 million. With long term debt worth $1.012 billion and long term operating lease liability of $771.3 million, I believe that the company’s contractual obligations don’t seem that significant. Keep in mind that market estimates include 2025 FCF close to $306 million.
Source: 10-Q
Free Cash Flow Is Expected To Trend North In The Next Three Years
Investment analysts expect that JOANN will, by 2025, likely report a total net sales of $2.3 billion as compared to $2.2 billion in 2023. Besides, EBITDA is expected to increase from $135 million in 2023 to $243 million in 2025. The EBITDA margin is also expected to stand at around 6.05%-7.33%.
Source: seekingalpha.com/symbol/JOAN/earnings/estimates
In 2025, in addition to an operating profit of $91 million and an operating margin of 6%, the net income is expected to be $23.4 million. Finally, the free cash flow will likely stand at around $306 million with FCF/sales of 13.27%. In sum, in my view, the investment community expects to see better numbers in the coming years.
With Correct Assessment Of The Company’s Database And Correct Purchase Of Inventory From Asia, I Obtained A Fair Price Of $10.27 Per Share
Under normal conditions, I expect a lot from the company’s digital interactions through online communities and social media platforms. Let’s keep in mind that JOANN owns a massive database with many customers, and offers very different purchasing channels. With correct marketing efforts, JOANN will likely see sales growth:
As of the end of fiscal 2022, we had approximately 77 million addressable customers in our vast database.
Customers have the ability to shop their local store location online, with convenient omni-channel services available like BOPIS or curbside pickup. Customers can also choose to order direct to home, with extended aisle offerings across all major product categories. For customers seeking to purchase in greater quantities, we offer low pricing for bulk purchases through our JOANN+ service on joann.com. Source: 10-k
I also believe that the company’s EBITDA margins will remain solid because JOANN buys cheap supply materials in cheap jurisdictions. In my view, if management buys even more from sources in Pakistan, India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Turkey, China, and South Korea, we could see an increase in the EBITDA margin. The fact that the company recently opened a foreign sourcing office in Shanghai indicates that management is willing to go abroad:
During fiscal 2022, we sourced approximately 64% of our purchases from domestic suppliers with the remaining approximately 36% of our products coming directly from manufacturers located in foreign countries, of which over one-third is sourced from China. To further support our direct sourcing strategic initiative, we opened our foreign sourcing office in Shanghai, China in 2018. We continue to diversify our internationally sourced products by expanding in several other countries, including Pakistan, India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Turkey and South Korea. Source: 10-k
I am also quite optimistic about the company’s logistics and quality control. Let’s keep in mind that JOANN owns distribution centers. A significant portion of its products is stored in-house. It means that management can really detect issues in supply chain or a decrease in quality:
As of January 29, 2022, approximately 89% of the products in our store locations were shipped through our distribution center network, with the remaining 11% of our purchases shipped directly from our suppliers to our store locations. Source: 10-k