Green Plains Partners LP

NasdaqGM:GPP 주식 리포트

시가총액: US$286.4m

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Green Plains Partners 향후 성장

Future 기준 점검 0/6

현재 Green Plains Partners 의 성장과 수익을 예측할 만큼 분석가의 범위가 충분하지 않습니다.

핵심 정보

n/a

이익 성장률

n/a

EPS 성장률

Oil and Gas 이익 성장11.3%
매출 성장률n/a
향후 자기자본이익률n/a
애널리스트 커버리지

Low

마지막 업데이트n/a

최근 향후 성장 업데이트

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha Oct 20

Green Plains Partners declares $0.455 dividend

Green Plains Partners (NASDAQ:GPP) declares $0.455/share quarterly dividend, 1.1% increase from prior dividend of $0.450. Forward yield 14.39% Payable Nov. 14; for shareholders of record Nov. 4; ex-div Nov. 3. See GPP Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha Aug 21

Green Plains Partners: Maybe Or Maybe Not

The partnership balance sheet is in good shape. The distribution coverage is skimpy even though the distribution was just raised. The generous yield reflects parent company issues. The parent company could be forced to bankruptcy and even liquidate at some point unless a profit recovery occurs (probably soon). That means the partnership yield is compensation for extra risk and therefore does not represent a bargain. (Note: This article appeared in the newsletter on June 18, 2022 and has been updated as needed.) The argument for Green Plains Partners LP (GPP) has long been that the partnership is in good shape. The partnership further increased the distribution to $.45 per share. So, let us get in and enjoy a generous distribution. The distribution coverage is a little skimpy at 1.06. But the debt ratio level at just under 1 is one of the best for this type of company among those I follow. In this case though, the distribution indicates trouble with the main customer, not the midstream. Sometimes that can be every bit as bad or worse than trouble with the midstream partnership itself. Operations Green Plains Partners appears similar to many midstream companies that I follow. The company transports mainly ethanol or stores it while providing some ancillary services to get the mission accomplished. The company's operations are somewhat protected by volume commitments and there is a long-term relationship with the major customer. The biggest difference is that the main customer is in the ethanol (and related) business. Should that customer run into trouble, then there is a real threat of that customer liquidating and the service provided by this midstream would not be needed any more. That is a major difference from oil and gas. With oil and gas, should the main customer (if there is one) run into financial trouble, then many times the wells continue to produce. Therefore, the service provided by the midstream company continues to be needed even if volumes decline. Minimum volume commitments are likely found to be reasonable and enforceable. So, there is an excellent probability that a midstream company will continue with the business of a major customer even if that customer ends up in bankruptcy and possibly liquidates. The Main Customer The major customer in this case is Green Plains (GPRE). That customer has not shown a profit for common shareholders in the three years listed in the latest annual report. Furthermore, cash flow in the latest fiscal year report all but evaporated (cash flow from operating activities). The company did move into a profitable report with the second quarter. But it will take more than that to relieve market anxiety about the main customer. The company reports being in compliance with all the covenants listed in the debt agreements. That always helps. But a lack of profits even in a cyclical industry can be a warning sign of trouble ahead if a turnaround does not happen fast. Furthermore, the company lists some standard warnings about the debt, the debt levels, the covenants and the ability to continue financing the debt that any investor should read before investing in this company. Debt, and commodities often do not get along very well. So, it is no surprise that this company has listed a few dispositions in the annual report. The company did raise cash in the latest fiscal year. But it did it by issuing debt. That can buy a company some time. But it is clear that a recovery is needed by this company (sooner rather than later). The fiscal first quarter likewise reported a loss. Working capital remained in good shape. Short term debt ballooned past $300 million. Long- and short-term debt in total exceed cash by a like amount. The financial position is clearly not moving forward. In the fiscal second quarter there remained a current portion of long-term debt (working capital type arrangement) on the balance sheet of approximately $300 million. Total debt was approximately $900 million. That is a lot for a company that has not reported a profit in three fiscal years until the current second quarter. Management did mention that they see some hopeful trends in the future. Should that happen, then a lot of what is discussed above will fade as debt gets rapidly reduced. Still the market has a legitimate concern about the length, duration, and "if it will even occur" of any future recovery. Partnership Common Units The common units themselves have had a lackluster response to a time when a lot of income vehicles are doing rather well. Green Plains Partners Common Unit History And Key Valuation Measures (Seeking Alpha Website August 20, 2022.) As shown above, the partnership units have not really responded well as the market has shifted emphasis to value and income vehicles as the latest "sure thing". That market trepidation is likely due to the parent company uncertainties discussed above. If that is the case, then the units are unlikely to respond positively until the parent company reports a few quarters of excellent results that relieve any debt worries that the market currently has. What did happen was a tepid response to the second quarter results of the parent company as that main customer reported a profit. The yield above represents a risk factor at the parent company level (not the partnership). Therefore, investors should expect a fluctuating double digit return until the market sees sufficient satisfactory results. Green Plains, the parent company, has an additional risk in that ethanol is sold to the fuel market but the source material for ethanol is usually corn. Ethanol has other sources that can compete to some extent with corn. These two commodities vary in unrelated fashion. Therefore, it is very possible for corn prices to be "sky high" while fuel prices are very low. That would create a near disastrous situation for the parent company. Currently it appears that the corn crop should come in with a decent volume to help aid some of the high food cost situation. We still have to get through summer and all the weather risks that come with that season. But a decent corn crop would be good news for this company as fuel costs (and raw material costs) are fairly high right now. So, the ingredients of a profit recovery appear to be in place.
Seeking Alpha Aug 02

Green Plains Partners GAAP EPS of $0.44, revenue of $19.65M

Green Plains Partners press release (NASDAQ:GPP): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.44. Revenue of $19.65M (-0.3% Y/Y).
Seeking Alpha Jul 21

Green Plains Partners raise dividend by 1% to $0.45

Green Plains Partners (NASDAQ:GPP) declares $0.45/share quarterly dividend, 1.1% increase from prior dividend of $0.45. Forward yield 14.14% Payable Aug. 12; for shareholders of record Aug. 5; ex-div Aug. 4. See GPP Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha Feb 14

Green Plains Partners: A Quiet Year Ahead, Luckily There's A Safe 12% Yield To Enjoy

After significantly reducing their distributions during 2020, thankfully 2021 saw them lifted higher again with a very high 12% yield returning. Thanks to their steady cash flow performance that is underpinned by long-term minimum volume commitments, they should produce adequate free cash flow to cover this very high yield. When looking elsewhere, management has given no indications that any meaningful events are on the horizon during 2022, and thus it appears to be a quiet year ahead. Their financial position is now very healthy with very low leverage and strong liquidity, which helps support their distributions. Given the prospects to simply sit back and collect a very high double-digit yield, I still believe that maintaining my strong buy rating is appropriate.
Seeking Alpha Nov 05

Green Plains Partners: The 11%+ Yield Returns With A 50%+ Potential Upside

Green Plains Partners have sent their distributions surging by more than 200% after refinancing their credit facility. They can cover these new distribution payments with their ample free cash flow, although there is little scope for growth given their almost non-existent capital expenditure. Thanks to their very low leverage and strong liquidity, their financial position is very healthy and thus their distributions are safe and sustainable. Based upon my Monte Carlo Simulation, it appears that their intrinsic value is at least 50%+ higher than their current unit price even without any future growth. Given these very impressive prospects to generate significant alpha, I believe that upgrading my rating to very bullish is now appropriate.
Seeking Alpha Aug 05

Green Plains Partners: Time To Get Bullish, Safe 10%+ Yield Is Coming Very Soon

Green Plains Partners has successfully shed their previously choking credit facility through refinancing and thus has flagged much higher distributions are coming very soon. Their commentary indicates that these are likely to result in a very high distribution yield of over 10%. Their cash flow performance continues to be steady and should be capable of adequately funding these with free cash flow. They also have a very healthy financial position to lend further support that has very low leverage and adequate liquidity. Whilst I have previously been wary of their units given their credit facility repayment schedule, now that this has been resolved, I believe that upgrading to a bullish rating is appropriate.

이 섹션에서는 일반적으로 전문 애널리스트들의 컨센서스 추정치를 기반으로 매출 및 이익 성장 전망을 제시하여 투자자들이 회사의 수익 창출 능력을 이해하도록 돕습니다. 그러나 Green Plains Partners는 과거 데이터가 충분하지 않고 애널리스트 예측도 없어, 과거 데이터를 단순히 외삽하거나 애널리스트 전망을 사용하여 향후 이익을 신뢰할 수 있게 계산할 수 없습니다.

Simply Wall St가 다루는 기업 중 97%는 과거 재무 데이터를 보유하고 있기 때문에, 이는 상당히 드문 상황입니다.

이익 및 매출 성장 예측

NasdaqGM:GPP - 애널리스트 향후 추정치 및 과거 재무 데이터 (USD Millions)
날짜매출이익자유현금흐름영업현금흐름평균 애널리스트 수
9/30/202382384646N/A
6/30/202382384343N/A
3/31/202381394546N/A
12/31/202280404546N/A
9/30/202278404545N/A
6/30/202277394445N/A
3/31/202277394546N/A
12/31/202178404748N/A
9/30/202181404747N/A
6/30/202183414950N/A
3/31/202183414545N/A
12/31/202083404848N/A
9/30/202082404445N/A
6/30/202081404545N/A
3/31/202082415050N/A
12/31/201982414647N/A
9/30/201985444344N/A
6/30/201991494848N/A
3/31/201996525151N/A
12/31/2018101555455N/A
9/30/2018106576566N/A
6/30/2018106576163N/A
3/31/2018106565962N/A
12/31/2017107586264N/A
9/30/2017107586062N/A
6/30/201710758N/A67N/A
3/31/201710758N/A65N/A
12/31/201610456N/A62N/A
9/30/20169851N/A58N/A
6/30/20169348N/A52N/A
3/31/20167134N/A34N/A
12/31/20155123N/A16N/A
9/30/20153211N/A0N/A
6/30/201514N/AN/A-28N/A
3/31/2015132N/A4N/A
12/31/201413-13N/A-16N/A
12/31/201311N/AN/A-11N/A

애널리스트 향후 성장 전망

수입 대 저축률: GPP 의 예상 수익 증가율이 절약률(2.2%)보다 높은지 판단하기에는 데이터가 부족합니다.

수익 vs 시장: GPP 의 수익이 US 시장보다 빠르게 성장할 것으로 예상되는지 판단하기에는 데이터가 부족합니다.

고성장 수익: GPP 의 수익이 향후 3년 동안 상당히 증가할 것으로 예상되는지 판단하기에는 데이터가 부족합니다.

수익 대 시장: GPP 의 수익이 US 시장보다 빠르게 증가할 것으로 예상되는지 판단하기에는 데이터가 부족합니다.

고성장 매출: GPP 의 수익이 연간 20%보다 빠르게 증가할 것으로 예상되는지 판단하기에는 데이터가 부족합니다.


주당순이익 성장 예측


향후 자기자본이익률

미래 ROE: GPP의 자본 수익률이 3년 후 높을 것으로 예상되는지 판단하기에 데이터가 부족합니다.


성장 기업 찾아보기

기업 분석 및 재무 데이터 상태

데이터최종 업데이트 (UTC 시간)
기업 분석2024/01/10 23:30
종가2024/01/08 00:00
수익2023/09/30
연간 수익2022/12/31

데이터 소스

당사의 기업 분석에 사용되는 데이터는 S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC에서 제공됩니다. 아래 데이터는 이 보고서를 생성하기 위해 분석 모델에서 사용됩니다. 데이터는 정규화되므로 소스가 제공된 후 지연이 발생할 수 있습니다.

패키지데이터기간미국 소스 예시 *
기업 재무제표10년
  • 손익계산서
  • 현금흐름표
  • 대차대조표
분석가 컨센서스 추정치+3년
  • 재무 예측
  • 분석가 목표주가
시장 가격30년
  • 주가
  • 배당, 분할 및 기타 조치
지분 구조10년
  • 주요 주주
  • 내부자 거래
경영진10년
  • 리더십 팀
  • 이사회
주요 개발10년
  • 회사 공시

* 미국 증권에 대한 예시이며, 비(非)미국 증권에는 해당 국가의 규제 서식 및 자료원을 사용합니다.

별도로 명시되지 않는 한 모든 재무 데이터는 연간 기간을 기준으로 하지만 분기별로 업데이트됩니다. 이를 TTM(최근 12개월) 또는 LTM(지난 12개월) 데이터라고 합니다. 자세히 알아보기.

분석 모델 및 스노우플레이크

이 보고서를 생성하는 데 사용된 분석 모델에 대한 자세한 내용은 당사의 Github 페이지에서 확인하실 수 있습니다. 또한 보고서 활용 방법에 대한 가이드YouTube 튜토리얼도 제공합니다.

Simply Wall St 분석 모델을 설계하고 구축한 세계적 수준의 팀에 대해 알아보세요.

산업 및 섹터 지표

산업 및 섹터 지표는 Simply Wall St가 6시간마다 계산하며, 프로세스에 대한 자세한 내용은 Github에서 확인할 수 있습니다.

분석가 소스

Green Plains Partners LP는 8명의 분석가가 다루고 있습니다. 이 중 1명의 분석가가 우리 보고서에 입력 데이터로 사용되는 매출 또는 수익 추정치를 제출했습니다. 분석가의 제출 자료는 하루 종일 업데이트됩니다.

분석가기관
Ethan BellamyBaird
Charles FrattD.A. Davidson & Co.
Andrew WeiselMacquarie Research