Seeking Alpha • Sep 15
StoneMor Really Needs That Outside Capital
Summary
StoneMor Inc. is in some sort of discussion with Axar Capital. Whether it be a take-private or some sort of roll-up, we don't know.
While a roll-up would make a lot of sense in the fragmented U.S. death-care industry, investors might have some concerns while they wait for a deal.
StoneMor has very high rate loans and their leverage situation could be described as nearing untenable.
While the economics of death care are very good, StoneMor has a current problem that their cemetery-focused businesses need to get a good return on capital on care trusts.
With markets being tough right now, shareholders deal with an uncertain situation where a good buyout is the only lever of return and bankruptcy is otherwise a risk.
StoneMor Inc. (STON) is yet another business in the death industry on which we've been expanding our coverage. It is more focused on cemetery operations than some of its peers, and that presents a little bit of a problem for them in the current market.
Since returns on investments from selling interment rights are important for the long-term revenues of the business, and cemetery revenues are exposed to inflation pressure, we worry about StoneMor's debt situation. They are in talks with a financial sponsor for some sort of transaction, but nothing has been decided yet and all parties could walk away. Shareholders appear to be in a position where a deal must happen otherwise the equity in this business could suffer a lot due to debt pressure, and indeed at maturity in 2029 collapse entirely.
STON has excellent economics in theory, and can probably turn the ship around. It is discounted with respect to some closer comps, so there is an upside here, but the risks are absolute. While mitigating factors are saving them, the situation is really ambiguous, and with an abyss below, we don't walk these tightropes.
The Challenges
Let's first discuss economics. StoneMor's primarily business is in cemetery operations. There's about a 4:3:3 split between selling interment rights, services and merchandise. There are two dynamics which are saving StoneMor right now. Services and merchandise are often sold on a preneed basis, i.e., before a death has occurred. That cash flow is essential for servicing debt, and is why the operating cash flow figures are just about positive while net income is in the deep negative. Deferred revenues save them here. The other element is that when selling interment rights, the cost of servicing those interred remains are not payable immediately, as the plot is maintained on an ongoing basis. Therefore, selling interment rights provides an excellent upfront cash flow that helps service debt.
Indeed, the debt situation is very severe. They have about $400 million in gross debt, and the interest expense is about $40 million a year, implying the 10% rate that would honestly be consistent with the risks from leverage here. Net debt is a bit lower at $320 million, but the problem still remains.
We mentioned earlier that a lot of cash comes upfront for StoneMor. Especially for interment sales, this means that a lot of cash ends up in trusts that need to invest the money so that there's more to distribute back into the working capital of the businesses, and indeed the pockets of shareholders over time. If investment performance is weak, then there's less distributions in the long-term for the company from those interment sales, which are partially deferred using these trusts and all that associated accounting. The economics aren't so different from pension plans with defined benefits.
The problem is that performance is probably going to be pretty weak.
2022 revenues were $70.5 million for the second quarter of 2022, compared with $72.1 million for the second quarter of 2021, a 2.3% decline, which was primarily driven by the decrease in investment and other income.
Jeff DiGiovanni, STON CFO
And if it's really weak, there's even a risk that the company has to pay into the trust to cover the statutory obligations for covering interred remains. State laws play into this, and it creates some hidden leverage that is contingent on poor investment performance.
You might see how things could be complicated...