Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 04
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to د.ت30.99, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Oil and Gas industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 185% over the past three years. Board Change • May 20
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 7 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (7 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. 공시 • May 06
La Société de Transport des Hydrocarbures par Pipelines SOTRAPIL SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2026 La Société de Transport des Hydrocarbures par Pipelines SOTRAPIL SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2026. New Risk • Oct 21
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.5% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (د.ت92.7m market cap, or US$31.8m). Price Target Changed • Sep 30
Price target decreased by 8.6% to د.ت21.20 Down from د.ت23.20, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 6.2% below last closing price of د.ت22.60. Stock is up 63% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of د.ت2.21 for next year compared to د.ت2.16 last year. New Risk • Jul 31
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Tunisian stocks, typically moving 4.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.6% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (د.ت93.4m market cap, or US$32.5m). Upcoming Dividend • Jul 24
Upcoming dividend of د.ت1.60 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 July 2025. Payment date: 04 August 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 74% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 6.4%. Lower than top quartile of Tunisian dividend payers (6.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (7.3%). Board Change • Jul 01
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 4 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (4 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Board Change • Jan 03
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 4 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (4 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Price Target Changed • Nov 20
Price target increased by 8.5% to د.ت16.60 Up from د.ت15.30, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 15% above last closing price of د.ت14.45. Stock is down 0.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of د.ت2.13 for next year compared to د.ت2.10 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 23
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from د.ت13.4m to د.ت15.1m. EPS estimate increased from د.ت1.67 to د.ت2.13 per share. Net income forecast to grow 32% next year vs 21% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Tunisia. Consensus price target up from د.ت15.30 to د.ت16.20. Share price was steady at د.ت14.01 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from د.ت1.97 to د.ت1.67. Revenue forecast unchanged from د.ت13.4m at last update. Net income forecast to grow 3.6% next year vs 2.6% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Tunisia. Consensus price target down from د.ت17.10 to د.ت15.30. Share price fell 4.2% to د.ت14.00 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 16
Price target decreased by 12% to د.ت15.30 Down from د.ت17.30, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 8.4% above last closing price of د.ت14.11. Stock is down 6.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of د.ت1.67 for next year compared to د.ت2.10 last year. Reported Earnings • Sep 15
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: د.ت0.76 (vs د.ت1.22 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: د.ت0.76 (down from د.ت1.22 in 1H 2023). Revenue: د.ت7.25m (down 10% from 1H 2023). Net income: د.ت3.14m (down 38% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 43% (down from 62% in 1H 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Africa. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 04
Upcoming dividend of د.ت1.40 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 11 July 2024. Payment date: 15 July 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 67% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 9.0%. Within top quartile of Tunisian dividend payers (8.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (10.0%). New Risk • Jun 06
New minor risk - Revenue size The company makes less than US$5m in revenue. Total revenue: د.ت15m (US$4.9m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small amount of revenue are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Revenue is less than US$5m (د.ت15m revenue, or US$4.9m). Market cap is less than US$100m (د.ت62.9m market cap, or US$20.3m). Price Target Changed • Jun 01
Price target increased by 9.5% to د.ت16.10 Up from د.ت14.70, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 5.6% above last closing price of د.ت15.24. Stock is up 8.9% over the past year. 공시 • May 25
La Société de Transport des Hydrocarbures par Pipelines SOTRAPIL SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 13, 2024 La Société de Transport des Hydrocarbures par Pipelines SOTRAPIL SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 13, 2024, at 10:00 W. Central Africa Standard Time. Location: tunis Tunisia Reported Earnings • May 22
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: د.ت18.3m (up 9.4% from FY 2022). Net income: د.ت8.70m (down 7.3% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 47% (down from 56% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is expected to decline by 13% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Africa are expected to grow by 3.8%. New Risk • Mar 19
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (31% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Market cap is less than US$100m (د.ت63.1m market cap, or US$20.4m). Price Target Changed • Mar 07
Price target decreased by 13% to د.ت15.30 Down from د.ت17.60, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of د.ت15.35. Stock is up 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of د.ت2.15 for next year compared to د.ت2.27 last year. New Risk • Jan 29
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (31% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Market cap is less than US$100m (د.ت62.1m market cap, or US$19.9m). New Risk • Sep 12
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 31% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (31% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Market cap is less than US$100m (د.ت60.7m market cap, or US$19.4m). Upcoming Dividend • Jul 17
Upcoming dividend of د.ت1.35 per share at 9.1% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 24 July 2023. Payment date: 28 July 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 60% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 9.1%. Within top quartile of Tunisian dividend payers (8.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (18%). Price Target Changed • May 22
Price target increased by 14% to د.ت17.30 Up from د.ت15.20, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 24% above last closing price of د.ت14.00. Stock is up 2.2% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of د.ت2.14 for next year compared to د.ت1.73 last year. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to د.ت15.20 Down from د.ت17.90, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 22% above last closing price of د.ت12.50. Stock is down 3.7% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of د.ت2.14 for next year compared to د.ت1.73 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 08
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from د.ت19.0m to د.ت16.6m. EPS estimate fell from د.ت1.95 to د.ت1.89 per share. Net income forecast to grow 6.5% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Tunisia. Consensus price target down from د.ت17.90 to د.ت15.20. Share price fell 3.0% to د.ت12.60 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 07
Price target decreased to د.ت15.20 Down from د.ت17.20, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 20% above last closing price of د.ت12.70. Stock is down 2.2% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of د.ت2.14 for next year compared to د.ت1.73 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 08
Upcoming dividend of د.ت1.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 15 July 2022. Payment date: 20 July 2022. Trailing yield: 7.9%. Within top quartile of Tunisian dividend payers (6.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (9.9%). Price Target Changed • Mar 16
Price target increased to د.ت17.80 Up from د.ت16.50, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 32% above last closing price of د.ت13.50. Stock is up 14% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of د.ت2.14 for next year compared to د.ت1.73 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 05
Upcoming dividend of د.ت1.05 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 July 2021. Payment date: 15 July 2021. Trailing yield: 8.1%. Within top quartile of Tunisian dividend payers (6.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (9.4%). Major Estimate Revision • Jun 18
Consensus revenue estimates increase to د.ت15.6m The consensus outlook for revenues in 2021 has improved. 2021 revenue forecast increased from د.ت14.1m to د.ت15.6m. EPS estimate increased from د.ت1.36 to د.ت1.85 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 22% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Tunisia . Consensus price target up from د.ت16.23 to د.ت16.90. Share price was steady at د.ت12.80 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 04
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings and revenues, although profit margins were flat. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: د.ت16.2m (down 5.1% from FY 2019). Net income: د.ت7.16m (down 3.4% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 44% (in line with FY 2019).