New Risk • Dec 09
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 6.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings have declined by 7.8% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (€5.22m market cap, or US$5.52m). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.3% average weekly change). New Risk • Nov 20
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 7.8% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings have declined by 7.8% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (€4.38m market cap, or US$4.62m). Reported Earnings • Oct 03
First half 2024 earnings released First half 2024 results: Revenue: €15.6m (down 3.6% from 1H 2023). Net loss: €105.0k (loss widened 18% from 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.6% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. New Risk • Jul 20
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 5.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Market cap is less than US$10m (€4.65m market cap, or US$5.06m). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.9% average weekly change). Major Estimate Revision • Apr 21
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €34.3m to €30.5m. Forecast loss of -€0.01, down from profit of €0.03 per share profit previously. Pharmaceuticals industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 24% next year. Consensus price target down from €1.30 to €1.20. Share price was steady at €0.94 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 24
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €31.1m (down 13% from FY 2022). Net loss: €299.0k (down €332.5k from profit in FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 8.9% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.6% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
First half 2023 earnings released First half 2023 results: €0.015 loss per share. Revenue: €16.1m (down 8.8% from 1H 2022). Net loss: €89.2k (loss widened 125% from 1H 2022). New Risk • Jul 21
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 23% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.9x net interest cover). High level of non-cash earnings (23% accrual ratio). Market cap is less than US$10m (€6.54m market cap, or US$7.27m). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.09% net profit margin). Major Estimate Revision • Apr 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall from profit to €0.01 loss, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €34.0m to €35.7m. Now expected to report loss of -€0.01 instead of €0.06 per share profit. Pharmaceuticals industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 13% next year. Consensus price target down from €1.50 to €1.40. Share price was steady at €1.08 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 29
Full year 2022 earnings released Full year 2022 results: Revenue: €35.7m (up 50% from FY 2021). Net income: €33.0k (down 61% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 0.1% (down from 0.4% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 10 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 1 independent director (6 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 06
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from €28.6m to €31.8m. EPS estimate fell from €0.05 to €0.01. Net income forecast to grow 143% next year vs 4.7% growth forecast for Pharmaceuticals industry in Italy. Consensus price target down from €2.00 to €1.50. Share price fell 4.7% to €1.02 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 25
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0 (vs €0 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €0 (in line with 1H 2021). Revenue: €17.7m (up 84% from 1H 2021). Net loss: €39.7k (loss narrowed 29% from 1H 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 10 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 1 independent director (6 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 06
New 90-day low: €1.15 The company is down 12% from its price of €1.30 on 04 December 2020. The Italian market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 3.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 16
New 90-day high: €1.48 The company is up 26% from its price of €1.17 on 16 September 2020. The Italian market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 7.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 26
New 90-day high: €1.25 The company is up 8.0% from its price of €1.16 on 28 August 2020. The Italian market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 3.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 13
New 90-day low: €1.05 The company is down 16% from its price of €1.25 on 15 July 2020. The Italian market is down 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Sep 27
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total losses of €452.0k, with earnings decreasing by €455.2k from the prior year. Total revenue was €16.5m over the last 12 months, up 4.5% from the prior year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 23
New 90-day low: €1.15 The company is down 4.0% from its price of €1.20 on 25 June 2020. The Italian market is down 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period.