New Risk • Dec 01
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 13% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.4x net interest cover). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings have declined by 13% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€16.9m market cap, or US$18.4m). Upcoming Dividend • Jul 18
Upcoming dividend of €0.30 per share at 2.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 25 July 2023. Payment date: 27 July 2023. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 93% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.6%. Lower than top quartile of French dividend payers (5.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.4%). New Risk • Jul 16
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of French stocks, typically moving 19% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.9x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (19% average weekly change). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 93% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€16.4m market cap, or US$18.5m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 65% After last week's 65% share price gain to €11.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Building industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 50% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Jul 14
Price target increased by 17% to €11.70 Up from €10.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 70% above last closing price of €6.90. Stock is down 17% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.56 for next year compared to €0.32 last year. New Risk • Jul 02
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 1.7x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.7x net interest cover). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 221% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€9.88m market cap, or US$10.8m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 01
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to €6.60, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Building industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 6.5% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 13
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from €1.80 to €1.56. Revenue forecast unchanged from €39.6m at last update. Net income forecast to grow 385% next year vs 3.9% growth forecast for Building industry in France. Consensus price target of €10.00 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 8.6% to €8.50 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €10.00 Down from €11.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 23% above last closing price of €8.15. Stock is down 6.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.91 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.15 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 6 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (6 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Nov 03
First half 2022 earnings released First half 2022 results: Revenue: €20.7m (up 26% from 1H 2021). Net income: €951.0k (up 173% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 4.6% (up from 2.1% in 1H 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Building industry in Europe. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 18
Upcoming dividend of €0.60 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 25 July 2022. Payment date: 27 July 2022. The company last paid an ordinary dividend in April 2012. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 2.4%. Reported Earnings • May 09
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €33.3m (up 16% from FY 2020). Net loss: €211.0k (down 104% from profit in FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 2.2%, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the industry in France. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to €10.00 Down from €11.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 42% above last closing price of €7.05. Stock is down 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.10 for next year compared to €4.09 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 6 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (6 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • May 05
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a decent full year result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €28.6m (down 24% from FY 2019). Net income: €5.90m (up 393% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 21% (up from 3.2% in FY 2019). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 14
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to €7.95, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 50.3x. Average forward P/E is 22x in the Building industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 32% over the past three years. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 18
New 90-day high: €7.45 The company is up 2.0% from its price of €7.30 on 18 September 2020. The French market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Building industry, which is up 9.0% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 19
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to €6.35, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 40.2x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 34.8x. This compares to an average P/E of 21x in the Building industry in Europe. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 42%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 22
New 90-day low: €4.80 The company is down 41% from its price of €8.20 on 24 July 2020. The French market is down 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Building industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 22
Market pulls back on stock over the past week After last week's 28% share price decline to €4.80, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 5.8x, down from the previous P/E ratio of 8x. This compares to an average P/E of 17x in the Building industry in France. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 56%. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 08
Analysts lower EPS estimates to -€0.11 The 2020 consensus revenue estimate was lowered from €33.0m to €31.0m. The company is forecast to report a loss instead of a profit with analysts lowering their EPS forecasts from €0.01 to -€0.11 for the same period. The Building industry in France is expected to see an average net income growth of 7.8% next year. The consensus price target of €10.00 was unchanged from the last update. Share price stayed mostly flat at €6.35 over the past week.